Big 12 talk during the game

Espn was saying during the game that if the Big 12 gets left out of the playoff they will have no choice but to add BYU and another team..question is who would be that second team.



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First, Big12 wannabes better hope some team beats TCU, or they are a practical shoe-in given the cannibalization of other P5 conferences. If TCU gets in there is no compelling reason to change.

Second, even if Big12 gets left out, they may pout and complain all the way to the bank with their $28+ million per team they don't want carved up for two more teams.

Third, if they do fold under the pressure, they would likely add two teams, but BYU is not a lock by any stretch.

Fourth, the other team that would get strong consideration is Cincy.

they mentioned colo st or Ucf..

How is TCU doing well in a P5 conference? I thought that the move had no positive impact on them and would relegate them to mediocrity forever. Weird...

Schmoe wrote:
How is TCU doing well in a P5 conference? I thought that the move had no positive impact on them and would relegate them to mediocrity forever. Weird...

Credit TCU a and Patrerson. A few years struggling to adapt and now top of the slightly overrated Big12. It's where utah wanted to be but isn't

Cougs_Rule wrote:
First, Big12 wannabes better hope some team beats TCU, or they are a practical shoe-in given the cannibalization of other P5 conferences. If TCU gets in there is no compelling reason to change.

Second, even if Big12 gets left out, they may pout and complain all the way to the bank with their $28+ million per team they don't want carved up for two more teams.

Third, if they do fold under the pressure, they would likely add two teams, but BYU is not a lock by any stretch.

Fourth, the other team that would get strong consideration is Cincy.

Tcu will most likely get bumped my miss st if they win out off strength of schdules. They don't wanna split the pot but the bigger picture is they want a title shot and that may not happen without a conf title game. BYU is the only logical choice no team ur gonna add that has tv market, ticket sales, following of a BYU. There r certain standards that have to be meet before the big 12 or any pore 5 will consider you. BYU is the only one that does.

Sports talk radio this morning was saying that there is buzz that the Big 10 is looking to expand to 16 and wants to extend invites as soon as this off-season. If you believe that the conferences will eventually be at 16, it is best to be one of the first to go as you get the "better" picks if you will.

Fido wrote:
Sports talk radio this morning was saying that there is buzz that the Big 10 is looking to expand to 16 and wants to extend invites as soon as this off-season. If you believe that the conferences will eventually be at 16, it is best to be one of the first to go as you get the "better" picks if you will.

I would love the big 10 growing up in Illinois I loved the big 10..I hope this is true

If that is the case maybe the Big12 will disband.

People focusing on the National Championship are missing the mark--that's a tangential concern. The biggest factor in conference realignment is TV money. All the p5 conferences have just renegotiated their football broadcast rights in the last couple of years, which is what drove the realignment craze. Conferences were adding television markets to increase their television revenue. The PAC12 didn't pick up Colorado instead of BYU because Colorado was a better team that would improve the conference. They added Colorado because the CU Buffs delivered every media market in the state of Colorado into the PAC12 TV negotiation portfolio. They already had the state of Utah covered with the Utes, and it's easier to value and leverage delivering an entire state in CU than valuing the marginal increase in the state of Utah + marginal increases in nationwide viewership you would get with BYU.



The Big10 added Maryland and Rutgers, giving them inroads to the NYC and DC media markets. They parlayed that into a TV deal this Spring with ESPN worth $1 billion that currently gives each school ~$30 million a year, and will ramp up to ~$45 million a year. The deal runs through the mid 2020s, as do all the other P5 TV deals.



Even with carriage issues with the PAC12 Network, that conference is delivering ~$20 million per school (Utah and Colorado slightly less as newbies) and in on track to reach over $30 million apiece, even if the PAC12 Network doesn't make any inroads. That TV deal runs through 2023-24.



The SEC redid their TV contract in 2013--right after picking up Texas A&M and Missouri in 2012, delivering multiple Texas TV markets and the KC and St. Louis markets. The SEC deal lasts through 2023-24, and delivers close to $55 million per school.



The ACC did not expand for football. They did replace departing Maryland with Louisville though, but that was after they signed their TV deal in 2012. However, the ACC made waves by expanding in basketball just prior to signing their deal with ESPN--an expansion that nets the teams ~$4 million MORE than they would have received without it....and that's just hoops. The ACC's football broadcast rights are locking in until 2026-27 and delivers ~$17 million per school currently, but will escalate.



The Big 12 redid their broadcast rights without expansion in 2012 as well (but after adding TCU and West Virginia to replace Nebraska, Colorado, TA&M, and Missouri), a contract that runs through 2024-25 and delivers $20 million per school.



So you see the trend is that expansion is TELEVISON $$$ driven, not excellence or national championship driven. A&M left the Big12 because they felt they $ from the Longhorn Network threw the Big12 out of balance. Everyone has been making moves based on money.



Based on history, I only see future expansion or realignment if it makes more money. No TV deals expire for a decade, so the leverage is lacking on the part of the conferences, but a conference such as the ACC or Big12 that is behind in TV dollars might look to expand to open the door to a renegotiation, but that expansion is going to have to make TV sense. Think the Big 12 adding FSU and Miami (who both are making $3 million less in the ACC) to open the door to Florida.



BYU is not a shoo in to any expansions or realignments, and there aren't TV negotiations ongoing anywhere to drive expansion or realignment. BYU will continue to snipe at the Big 12 to say "hey! they need a championship game!", but that's not a terribly strong argument for those teams to all take 8%+ of their TV money and give it to BYU without a renegotiation of their current broadcast deal. Think Kansas, Iowa State, and WVU are going to go for that as far away as they are from a national championship? What's more, it's likely that a conference WITH a championship game will be left out as well this year if the SEC puts two into the top four, so it's not as if a championship game is the difference--there may be more one-loss teams out of the playoff than in it. The championship game simply may not be all that Bronco, Holmoe, and BYU are making it out to be. They need it to be bigger than it is, because that is the most realistic, though long-shot, path to P5 membership for BYU.

Have to disagree on this one money is the key and that is delivered with a national title. Every talking head from cal to New York been saying this all season, if big 12 loses out on a playoff spot they May not have a choice but to expand.. Who would be the second team? The playoff committee is key here if they put a lot into a conf title game the big 12 has not choice. If tcu or Baylor gets in without a title game then it's big trouble for BYU.

The money from the National Championship is WAY overrated.



Making it to the Playoff only increases the CONFERENCE payout by $8Million. If you advance to the National Championship, there is another $2 million. There is no bonus for winning the Championship game. So, best case scenario, the Big 12 gets $10 million gross from the playoff. From that $10 million you deduct every single one of TCU's expenses for the bowls. BYU's said in the past that Las Vegas Bowl payouts of $1 million were about break-even for BYU to travel to Vegas. To be conservative, let's say the Big12 nets $9 million after TCU's expenses--That's $900,000 per team.



If the Big 12 expands, they have to share their $200 million a year in conference broadcast revenue with the expansion team. If they give more than 0.5% away to expansion teams, they are losing money even if they win the National Championship every year. If BYU and the other expansion team both take a discount and only takes $5 million a year in TV money for the first few years (while the other teams take $19 million each) each of those schools breaks even in expansion, and I doubt BYU or any other expansion team settles for a 75% discount--it's been about a 33% discount (taking ~11.75 million a year), which would leave the other programs hurting to the tune of a ~$1.5 million less that what they make without the National Championship now. ($20 million a year now to ~$17.8 million post-expansion + BCS money)



The National Championship is peanuts compared to TV money.

Primary motivation for realignment is money. TV contracts bring in the most money, especially if you're a bottom dweller P5 program.



It's likely we won't see a renegotiation of TV contracts anytime soon, unless a conference feels like they could get a better contract and if their current contracts even allow for some type of renegotiation. We don't know what clauses these conferences have in place or what clauses ESPN, FOX, etc. have in place. Adding a new team could very well be a clause for renegotiation as the product on the field will change.



IMO, the National Championship is still very much a motivation for conference realignment. Why? Greed.



First, the conference that produces playoff and national champions stands to make millions more in payouts, sponsors, merchandise, donors, etc. And, we all know the P5 conferences are never satisfied with how many millions they get. They all want more. They all want the most.



Second, why we likely won't see any changes within the next year or so, I imagine there will be some fidgeting if the Big 12 or Big 10 go a few years without getting a team in the playoffs, especially if the SEC gets two. Why? Because they'll be slipping into irrelevancy and irrelevancy means less revenue - sponsors, merchandise, ticket sales, and no championship cash. And, don't forget angry boosters.



Along the lines of relevancy, ESPN, FOX, ABC, etc want BIG games. If the Big 12 and Big 10 aren't producing as good a product as the SEC, ACC, or Pac12 you can bet there will be some pressure from the TV folks on the conferences to improve the product. Networks also are never content. Profit always has to be up and to the right.



I imagine there is some flexibility in the the TV contracts. There's too much money at stake.



In that case, why wouldn't a TV network be in favor of the Big 12 or Big 10 adding BYU and gaining Utah as a new media market just like the Pac12 did? And, as an added bonus BYU not only gets you the state of Utah but a pretty healthy national fan base too (Utes and CU don't have a national following).

I agree that money is a driver--but wouldn't say it is the ONLY driver. BYU and Bronco aren't the ones driving the conference championship game talk--that is coming from the other conferences who DID expand in part to have a championship game. The P5 conferences are competitive. If they feel someone is gaining an advantage over the others by not having a conference championship game, they will take steps to fix it. If a conference feels disadvantaged by not having a conference championship game, they will take steps to remedy it. Conferences who are happy with the status quo end up like the Mountain West Conference.

snoscythe wrote:
The money from the National Championship is WAY overrated.



Making it to the Playoff only increases the CONFERENCE payout by $2Million. If you advance to the National Championship, there is another $2 million. There is no bonus for winning the Championship game. So, best case scenario, the Big 12 gets $4 million gross from the playoff. From that $4 million you deduct every single one of TCU's expenses for the bowls. BYU's said in the past that Las Vegas Bowl payouts of $1 million were about break-even for BYU to travel to Vegas. To be conservative, let's say the Big12 nets $3 million after TCU's expenses--That's $300,000 per team.



If the Big 12 expands, they have to share their $200 million a year in conference broadcast revenue with the expansion team. If they give more than 1.5% away to expansion teams, they are losing money even if they win the National Championship every year. If BYU and the other expansion team both take a discount and only takes $5 million a year in TV money for the first few years (while the other teams take $19 million each) each of those schools is $700,000 a year poorer for expansion, and I doubt BYU or any other expansion team settles for a 75% discount--it's been about a 33% discount (taking ~11.75 million a year), which would leave the other programs hurting to the tune of a $2.32 million less that what they make without the National Championship now. ($20 million a year now to $17.68 million post-expansion + BCS money)



The National Championship is peanuts compared to TV money.

The national champion for the bcs got a 23.9 mil payout that's from Forbes mag. Yes it is split with the conference still a nice chunk of change. You also take into account the other bowls and payouts for the conference. National champ also get a nice health boost in venue sales as well, can you imagine all the merchandise FSU sold last year. These university's use football to sell their school winning a title up admissions sent to the school, the hidden dollars here is insane. Really good movie on netflix that outlines all of this I'll have to try and find the title and send it to ya. Being the elite conf is what every school wants and the big 12 gonna have expand and get a conf title game..expansion gonna happen sooner or later. I just hope sooner for our sake.

BYUBALLIN wrote:

The money from the National Championship is WAY overrated.



Making it to the Playoff only increases the CONFERENCE payout by $8Million. If you advance to the National Championship, there is another $2 million. There is no bonus for winning the Championship game. So, best case scenario, the Big 12 gets $10 million gross from the playoff. From that $10 million you deduct every single one of TCU's expenses for the bowls. BYU's said in the past that Las Vegas Bowl payouts of $1 million were about break-even for BYU to travel to Vegas. To be conservative, let's say the Big12 nets $9 million after TCU's expenses--That's $900,000 per team.



If the Big 12 expands, they have to share their $200 million a year in conference broadcast revenue with the expansion team. If they give more than 0.5% away to expansion teams, they are losing money even if they win the National Championship every year. If BYU and the other expansion team both take a discount and only takes $5 million a year in TV money for the first few years (while the other teams take $19 million each) each of those schools breaks even in expansion, and I doubt BYU or any other expansion team settles for a 75% discount--it's been about a 33% discount (taking ~11.75 million a year), which would leave the other programs hurting to the tune of a ~$1.5 million less that what they make without the National Championship now. ($20 million a year now to ~$17.8 million post-expansion + BCS money)



The National Championship is peanuts compared to TV money.

The national champion for the bcs got a 23.9 mil payout that's from Forbes mag. Yes it is split with the conference still a nice chunk of change. You also take into account the other bowls and payouts for the conference. National champ also get a nice health boost in venue sales as well, can you imagine all the merchandise FSU sold last year. These university's use football to sell their school winning a title up admissions sent to the school, the hidden dollars here is insane. Really good movie on netflix that outlines all of this I'll have to try and find the title and send it to ya. Being the elite conf is what every school wants and the big 12 gonna have expand and get a conf title game..expansion gonna happen sooner or later. I just hope sooner for our sake.

First off, I made some errors, which I have corrected in bold above. Second, people see the payout and assume it goes to the teams playing. In the BCS era, that's not true. Yes, the national championship game "pays out" $22.9 million. BUT--that is just a total of the checks they write. It's not what the teams/conferences who play in it get. BYU is so used to podunk bowls that our fans don't get how the BCS payouts work for BCS teams. The BCS bowls essentially pay into a pool along with the TV money, and that pool of money is divvyed up:



- $50 million to each P5 conference, regardless of whether they are in the playoff.

- $75 million split by non-P5 conferences.

- $300,000 to each conference for every bowl-eligible team

- $6 million for each team going to the playoff

- $4 million for teams in non-playoff BCS bowls

- $2 million to cover expenses for each semi-final and final game

- $2.3 million to Notre Dame

- BYU, Army, and Navy split $922,658.

- Plus conferences get whatever payouts they have individually contracted for with the bowls.



The "payout" of ~$23 million includes what they put in the pot. The added payment or bonus to the participants is $6 million for putting a team into the playoff, and $2 million to cover expenses in each semi-final and final game--making the max additional payout $10 million. You don't have to take my word for it:



http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/07/16/college-football-playoff-financial-revenues-money-distribution-bill-hancock/12734897/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The National Championship puts ~$23 million in the pot, but a conference only benefits to the tune of $8 million (for a semifinal loss), or $10 million (for a semifinal win) for putting a team in the playoff.

Gunk wrote:

First, the conference that produces playoff and national champions stands to make millions more in payouts, sponsors, merchandise, donors, etc. And, we all know the P5 conferences are never satisfied with how many millions they get. They all want more. They all want the most.



Second, why we likely won't see any changes within the next year or so, I imagine there will be some fidgeting if the Big 12 or Big 10 go a few years without getting a team in the playoffs, especially if the SEC gets two. Why? Because they'll be slipping into irrelevancy and irrelevancy means less revenue - sponsors, merchandise, ticket sales, and no championship cash. And, don't forget angry boosters.



Along the lines of relevancy, ESPN, FOX, ABC, etc want BIG games. If the Big 12 and Big 10 aren't producing as good a product as the SEC, ACC, or Pac12 you can bet there will be some pressure from the TV folks on the conferences to improve the product. Networks also are never content. Profit always has to be up and to the right.

This is the key. If TCU or Baylor doesn't get in at 11-1 then none of the games they played all year matter. If no Big 12 gets in the next couple years then why should ESPN or FOX pay so much for their games? And why should Nike or Adidas offer more sponsorships?



If they don't get in BYU has a shot because the Big 12 will want to stop their potential losses.

Too bad the big 12 needs two teams. It makes the lost dollars hard to recoup. Adding a conference championship game would bring in more revenue. Just not enough to cover the two team shares.

BYU by itself obviously would not bring $21+ million to the Big 12. BYU would bring substantial value, just not $21 million per year.



The irony is neither West Virginia, nor Iowa St., nor Kansas, nor many current Big 12 members would bring $21 million per year by themselves if added now. The Big 12 benefited by great timing with Fox getting into the college football scene and needing content. In other words, the Big 12 has a really good deal and it knows it.



The addition of BYU and another decent team (Cincinnati?) would help the Big 12's weekly football and basketball inventory, and probably increase the TV deal by about $20-25 million for the season. This means the current Big 12 members would make $2 million LESS than the status quo if the pie were divided equally. It's just not YET worthwhile to the Big 12.



Adding a conference championship game, however, in and of itself adds $$$ to the conference. Conference members reaching the NY6 and the CFP also adds $$$....in addition to the exposure, branding, and recruiting benefits. So, there is still a chance for Big 12 expansion.



In all honesty, if I'm the Big 12, I would wait for the ACC, which means 11 or 12 years. If expansion becomes inevitable, I'm looking first at the American. The Big 12 already has problems with WVU being on an island. They don't need another BYU island problem. I think they look to add schools in WVU's region. Which means:



Cincinnati (11.5 million in OH, close to WVU)

Navy (5.9 million in MD, plus nationwide following and CLOSEST to WVU)

Memphis (6.4 million in TN, closest to other Big 12 schools)

ECU (9.8 million in NC)



UCF and USF are also on the table because of the 19 million population in Florida.



But the recent tweets by Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby illustrates that the Big 12's TV partners don't feel that any of these candidates would actually deliver the markets sufficiently to make it worth while....yet.

The Baylor boards have been talking recently about the Big 12 sniping from the ACC and taking Miami and Florida St as expansion targets instead of BYU +1 as that delivers more TV markets, more national prominence, better recruiting beds/inroads, and it would be a $$ upgrade for those two schools, plus they get to keep their rivalry.