Spiff's Statistical Observations & Other Nonsense

Another game another inconsistent performance in all facets of the game. This team truly is a team as no one side of the ball is contributing more to losses than another. Special Teams are contributing to losses. The Offense is contributing to losses and the defense is doing their share to lose games.



So here are some things I noticed from the UCF loss.



- BYU has now given up 300+ yards passing in four straight games. Since 1994, the Cougars had never given up that many games in an entire season, let alone consecutively.



- BYU played poorly on both sides of the ball at the start and end of the game. 1st Qtr PER: BYU 51.4 UCF 139.36. 2nd-3rd Qtr PER: BYU 178.40 UCF 57.03. 4th-OT PER: BYU 46.26 UCF 146.26.



- BYU had seven trips to the Blue Zone vs UCF and scored on four of them with an interception, a fumble and turnover on downs on the other three.



- After winning 53 of the first 62 games in which BYU ran for 150 yards under Bronco (.855) BYU has now lost the last two.



- The Cougars are 2-6 in their last eight against the spread.



- Bronco is now 21-5 (.808) vs teams in a white helmet.



- Stewart was the first QB to lose his first career start since John Beck (I'm counting Washington a win for both Nelson & Heaps as they were co-starters).



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As the saying goes, you see the most improvement from game one to game two. I figure this was the first real game of the season for about half our team, so I expect huge improvements against Nevada.

BYULV wrote:
As the saying goes, you see the most improvement from game one to game two. I figure this was the first real game of the season for about half our team, so I expect huge improvements against Nevada.

Huh. Interesting point. I like the optimism and touch of realism. It really does seem like a different team and not a new season but a a different season. I'm excited for newer players like CS and what he can do with the pass; excited to see a return of hard nose running by our Poly boys and not just relying on the qb; excited to see Takitaki--he seems like the real deal; and if Kurtz could actually come back (I laughed and scoffed the coaches for saying he was ready to play after a foot fracture that is hard to heal and then to get his vertical and speed back--just silly); and to see improvement in the modified O scheme--hopefully more passing, hard nose running, and play action; and hopefully as advertised this morning on tweets, improvements to special teams now that new guys, next gen guys are filling in.

SpiffCoug wrote:

- Bronco is now 21-5 (.808) vs teams in a white helmet.





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Too bad this was the first year to reveal a white Utah helmet

SpiffCoug wrote:



"No one side of the ball is contributing more to losses than another. "



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Cannot agree with that statement. The defense has contributed most to the losses. Special teams has contributed 2nd most. The offense has also contributed, and significantly at times, but not as heavily.



Using your own data, just look at the red and blue when comparing to opponents opponents. It does not measure special teams, but the offense is almost totally blue, and the defense shows significant red.



Also, Bronco sets team goals and has essentially said, all that matters is Points Scored and Points Allowed. I have never seen him spell out details, but field goals seem to be included. Not sure about kick or punt returns to the house or defensive scores. But, BYU has scored over the 24 point target consistently. Unfortunately, BYU has allowed well over the 23 point target several times.



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Cougarbib wrote:

"No one side of the ball is contributing more to losses than another. "



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Cannot agree with that statement. The defense has contributed most to the losses. Special teams has contributed 2nd most. The offense has also contributed, and significantly at times, but not as heavily.



Using your own data, just look at the red and blue when comparing to opponents opponents. It does not measure special teams, but the offense is almost totally blue, and the defense shows significant red.



Also, Bronco sets team goals and has essentially said, all that matters is Points Scored and Points Allowed. I have never seen him spell out details, but field goals seem to be included. Not sure about kick or punt returns to the house or defensive scores. But, BYU has scored over the 24 point target consistently. Unfortunately, BYU has allowed well over the 23 point target several times.



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Fair enough to a certain extent.



Number of "empty" drives for the offense - drives where no points were scored:

vs UConn, 12 drives, 5 scoring drives, scored on .417 pct of drives

vs Texas, 16 drives, 7 scoring drives, .438

vs Houston, 13 drives, 5 scoring drives, .385

vs Virginia, 12 drives, 6 scoring drives, .500

vs Utah St, 15 drives, 4 scoring drives, .267

vs UCF, 19 drives, 4 scoring drives, .211



Number of "empty" drives for the defense - drives where the opponents didn't score:

UConn, 12 drives, 2 scoring drives, .167

Texas, 15 drives, 1 scoring drives, .067

Houston, 13 drives, 5 scoring drives, .385

Virginia, 13 drives, 7 scoring drives, .538

Utah St, 14 drives, 5 scoring drives, .357

UCF, 18 drives, 5 scoring drives, .277



In the two losses, the offense was held to more empty drive than our opponents. The offense is what is not pulling it's own weight. Too many possessions and not enough scoring drives for the offense. In the two losses, the offense has 8 scoring drives on 34 total drives (.235). While the defense has held opponents to scoring on 10 of 32 drives (.313). It's the OFFENSE that isn't doing what is needed these last two games.

Fair enough to a lesser extent. Much lesser. Why do you bother to analyze performance VA opponents opponents and then keep trying to rationalize it and explain it away - like the Houston game when BYU pass defense was poor?



Your comments in the above post totally ignore the fact that coming into the game UCF had a terrible offense, and it should have been easy for the BYU defense to hold them well under 23. I would bet that you and most BYU fans predicted that they would hold them well under 23. UCF did have a solid defense coming in to this game. Strength of the team. And, yet, BYU hit the 24 point target behind a rookie QB. The same was true with USU, but I will agree that the USU QB appears to be on an upward trend that may continue. In the USU game, inability to recover from the loss of Hill clearly is a failure of the offense, albeit not surprising. But the blown coverages early and late by the BYU defense rank right up there.



In the narrow wins, the offense clearly did it's job while defense and special teams were inconsistent.



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I have already conceded the BYU pass defense was poor vs Houston. I don't know why you keep implying I haven't.



And I have already said that the defense stunk both early and late vs UCF.



I am simply trying to say that in both of the losses, the offense, defense AND special teams have made significant contributions to those losses.



If you want to quibble that the offense and special teams were 30% each responsible and the defense 40%, fine. But I don't think arguing over the magnitude of responsibility changes the fact that each facet of BYU's team isn't playing well enough to win games.

You predicted UCF winning 31 to 17. I called BYU winning 17-13 iirc. Amazingly we seemed to agree that 17 was all BYU would be able to produce with a rookie QB OK now 2 days practice, with a slew of other injuries. And we did not even know JW would be out. And that was my point. UCF had already shown that they had a decent defense.



We sure disagreed about how many points the UCF offense would put up. Other than Bethune-Cookman, or whoever it was they whipped, there offense had not shown much.



Their offense met your expectations, albeit taking overtime to do so. Their defense let you down, and but for a non call on the final play, might have gone to double OT and a ton of points.



The BYU defense, therefore met your expectations, but did not come near meeting mine. I have a hard time imagining that many fans predicted UCF would get 31. Maybe 24 like they did in regulation.



The BYU offense scored 7 more points than either of us expected.



Six more games. Time will tell if UCF continues to score at that rate VA teams of any substance.



BTW - I totally agree that every aspect of BYU football is struggling with inconsistency right now.