CFP Criteria

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11586555/wisconsin-badgers-athletic-director-barry-alvarez-offers-glimpse-college-football-playoff-criteria" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Spiff, go crazy and show us why BYU should/should not be in the CFP based on the mentioned criteria at this point in the season.



A few interesting comments:

While Alvarez said he doesn't place much stock in margin of victory, he does pay close attention to a statistic on relative offensive and defensive performance.



"In other words, let's say a team scores 50 points four games in a row, but the teams they're playing give up an average of 45," Alvarez said. "And then you've got someone who's played a very difficult schedule and they're averaging 21 points a game, but the teams they're playing only give up an average of 10 points. There's a huge difference there.



"That variation on both offense and defense are very telling statistics. Your average starting field position, your turnover margin ... we can all tailor our own stats. [Fellow committee member] Tom Osborne may want to look at some other statistics in how he evaluates. We can tailor that individually."

"There are specific things I'm looking for in statistics," said Alvarez, the winningest coach in Wisconsin history and member of the College Football Hall of Fame. "It's too early in the season to do that, to compare teams yet. I'm really glad that we're waiting until the end of October before we put our first poll together.



"There's so many questions to answer with some of the teams. You haven't seen them play against the competition they play in their conference to really evaluate them. In another five or six weeks, we'll have those answers and be able to compare statistics team by team."



Alvarez also said he pays attention to The Associated Press and USA Today Top 25 polls.



"I look at them, sure," he said. "Are they meaningful? No, but I'm aware."

This committee is developing criteria for this year. If the committee remains the same going forward, they may lay the groundwork for future years.



But, just like the basketball committee, each year different things can become important. For Alvarez, he's explaining one thing that's important.



But for him, the 41 points against UVA would become very impressive.



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It is a bye week, so maybe this weekend I'll see how some of the playoff contender teams are doing against their opponent averages. What teams do you guys want me to look at?



Florida St

Auburn

Alabama

Oklahoma

Oregon

Texas A&M

Baylor

Notre Dame



Who else??

stuckinbig10country wrote:
This committee is developing criteria for this year. If the committee remains the same going forward, they may lay the groundwork for future years.



But, just like the basketball committee, each year different things can become important. For Alvarez, he's explaining one thing that's important.



But for him, the 41 points against UVA would become very impressive.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

.....but giving up 33 to UVA would not have been. Cuts both ways.



Too early to really dig into the numbers, but I think you get the point. BYU MUST win big. Beating USU by 2 TDS (28-14) type score impresses no one, needs to be a UT type game.

SpiffCoug wrote:
It is a bye week, so maybe this weekend I'll see how some of the playoff contender teams are doing against their opponent averages. What teams do you guys want me to look at?



Florida St

Auburn

Alabama

Oklahoma

Oregon

Texas A&M

Baylor

Notre Dame



Who else??

No rush, still a bit early but would be interesting data going forward.



Michigan State - Early loss in competitive game to a top 5 team, if they win out they could be a worry.



SEC teams may need to be added as we go further into the year. Georgia, USC, Ole Miss could all become contenders (I don't see Ole Miss or MSU making it that far yet).



You are the man, much appreciated.

SpiffCoug wrote:
It is a bye week, so maybe this weekend I'll see how some of the playoff contender teams are doing against their opponent averages. What teams do you guys want me to look at?



Florida St

Auburn

Alabama

Oklahoma

Oregon

Texas A&M

Baylor

Notre Dame



Who else??

I would wait at least 3 more weeks. There are a bunch of SEC, PAC 12, and Notre Dame games that will weed out some and create new contenders.

Ok, I'll hold off a bit and just prep everything.

SpiffCoug wrote:
It is a bye week, so maybe this weekend I'll see how some of the playoff contender teams are doing against their opponent averages. What teams do you guys want me to look at?



Florida St

Auburn

Alabama

Oklahoma

Oregon

Texas A&M

Baylor

Notre Dame



Who else??

BYU ;)

BoiseBYU wrote:

It is a bye week, so maybe this weekend I'll see how some of the playoff contender teams are doing against their opponent averages. What teams do you guys want me to look at?



Florida St

Auburn

Alabama

Oklahoma

Oregon

Texas A&M

Baylor

Notre Dame



Who else??

BYU ;)

Good catch!

If we are comparing these teams to BYU it was likely assumed that BYU would be included, the other teams are the teams to compare to BYU.

I'm interested to see how they factor injuries and players missing games.



Also on that point, what if a top-4 loses a key player in their last game (who may not be available for the CFP)? Will the Selection Committee account for that scenario?

NDCougar wrote:
If we are comparing these teams to BYU it was likely assumed that BYU would be included, the other teams are the teams to compare to BYU.

No, what I'll be doing is what I do each week with BYU. I look at the BYU game compared to the opponents season averages without the BYU game factored in. It'll be fairly simple to just plug and play the stats in for the various stats.



I think it's kind of interesting to see that Barry Alvarez is going to be doing what we here at Cougar Corner have been doing for a few years now. Looking at how BYU is doing against other teams on an opponent's schedule.



Maybe he's a lurker! Hey Barry! Let me know if you want me to do some ground work fo ryou.

I have now doubt Barry is a lurker. I actually assumed you are the guy who put the stats together for the CFP, mentioned in the article.

Do politics play in our favor or against us? Rather, are the ADs so afraid of this being the 1st year and excluding worthy undefeated team that we have a better chance than the future or no chance because the ADs would rather take the PR hits to prevent it?



And does it really matter until we've handled business? (at Boise at UCF at Cal ... three near coinflips as road games... I think we're about at 33% to go undefeated and I wonder if that's overly confident)..



And if we win out and don't get in NY6 or playoffs, what does that do to our national cache? hurt or help? recruiting? def hurts ("win out and they still can't get in... don't bother with them") It'll be really interesting how it plays out... however I'm not holding my breath on winning out. It's hard to go undefeated, really hard.

craigoscarson wrote:
Do politics play in our favor or against us? Rather, are the ADs so afraid of this being the 1st year and excluding worthy undefeated team that we have a better chance than the future or no chance because the ADs would rather take the PR hits to prevent it?



And does it really matter until we've handled business? (at Boise at UCF at Cal ... three near coinflips as road games... I think we're about at 33% to go undefeated and I wonder if that's overly confident)..



And if we win out and don't get in NY6 or playoffs, what does that do to our national cache? hurt or help? recruiting? def hurts ("win out and they still can't get in... don't bother with them") It'll be really interesting how it plays out... however I'm not holding my breath on winning out. It's hard to go undefeated, really hard.

[youtube]w3sLzmmejCA[/youtube]

craigoscarson wrote:
Do politics play in our favor or against us? Rather, are the ADs so afraid of this being the 1st year and excluding worthy undefeated team that we have a better chance than the future or no chance because the ADs would rather take the PR hits to prevent it?



And does it really matter until we've handled business? (at Boise at UCF at Cal ... three near coinflips as road games... I think we're about at 33% to go undefeated and I wonder if that's overly confident)..



And if we win out and don't get in NY6 or playoffs, what does that do to our national cache? hurt or help? recruiting? def hurts ("win out and they still can't get in... don't bother with them") It'll be really interesting how it plays out... however I'm not holding my breath on winning out. It's hard to go undefeated, really hard.

Everything being discussed assumes we win out, whether we do or not is a completely separate topic.



Regarding the PR I think they are more worried an undefeated team with a perceived light schedule comes in and get whacked in the CFP when a one loss P5 gets left out......that hurts much worse than leaving out BYU. If they leave out a worthy BYU there will be enough people on both sides of the fence and those against BYU will be their P5 counterparts. Any way you slice it someone will be mad and they likely believe the P5s are better so why let an outsider in. The case needs to be overwhelmingly compelling to let a BYU in, otherwise it won't happen.



It does hurt our reputation if we don't make a NY6 bowl mad we are undefeated, not making the CFP does not hurt us given the schedule.

BYU needs to hope they are the only undefeated team or one of two. It would be hard to jump 3 or 4 1-loss teams over anyone (including a G5 team), but not 1 or 2.



And if the SEC is so hard, how come they generally have one of the undefeated teams every year?

stuckinbig10country wrote:
BYU needs to hope they are the only undefeated team or one of two. It would be hard to jump 3 or 4 1-loss teams over anyone (including a G5 team), but not 1 or 2.



And if the SEC is so hard, how come they generally have one of the undefeated teams every year?

The SEC generally does not have an undefeated every year, more often than not their entrant in the NC has at least one loss, LSU had two. That is the whole SEC argument, their conference is the toughest so we may be the best but it is near impossible to make it through unscathed yet we still win the NC nearly every year.

NDCougar wrote:

BYU needs to hope they are the only undefeated team or one of two. It would be hard to jump 3 or 4 1-loss teams over anyone (including a G5 team), but not 1 or 2.



And if the SEC is so hard, how come they generally have one of the undefeated teams every year?

The SEC generally does not have an undefeated every year, more often than not their entrant in the NC has at least one loss, LSU had two. That is the whole SEC argument, their conference is the toughest so we may be the best but it is near impossible to make it through unscathed yet we still win the NC nearly every year.

Last 2 years they haven't had an undefeated regular season (prior to conf champ and bowl), but the 4 years before they did, and in 2010 Alabama's only loss was to LSU in the regular season.



In most years where there wasn't an undefeated team, there was only a one loss team. And it's almost always the same teams. Maybe it's not so much the conference being tough, but the top 3 teams being good.

NDCougar wrote:

Do politics play in our favor or against us? Rather, are the ADs so afraid of this being the 1st year and excluding worthy undefeated team that we have a better chance than the future or no chance because the ADs would rather take the PR hits to prevent it?



And does it really matter until we've handled business? (at Boise at UCF at Cal ... three near coinflips as road games... I think we're about at 33% to go undefeated and I wonder if that's overly confident)..



And if we win out and don't get in NY6 or playoffs, what does that do to our national cache? hurt or help? recruiting? def hurts ("win out and they still can't get in... don't bother with them") It'll be really interesting how it plays out... however I'm not holding my breath on winning out. It's hard to go undefeated, really hard.

Everything being discussed assumes we win out, whether we do or not is a completely separate topic.



Regarding the PR I think they are more worried an undefeated team with a perceived light schedule comes in and get whacked in the CFP when a one loss P5 gets left out......that hurts much worse than leaving out BYU. If they leave out a worthy BYU there will be enough people on both sides of the fence and those against BYU will be their P5 counterparts. Any way you slice it someone will be mad and they likely believe the P5s are better so why let an outsider in. The case needs to be overwhelmingly compelling to let a BYU in, otherwise it won't happen.



It does hurt our reputation if we don't make a NY6 bowl mad we are undefeated, not making the CFP does not hurt us given the schedule.

I personally don't see anyone "thumping" us, unless the injury bug hits our team. Our frontline starters can give anyone in the country a respectable game this year... win? against a top 5? probably not... hang, yes



A team that can really throw the ball could bury us early if we weren't careful though, but otherwise I think we can hang with anyone if we're healthy.