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YzzazzThe latest lines quoted on ESPN show BYU a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia, with a 48 point over-under mark. Even though that is a drift lower from a 17 point spread, it is still an impressive show of confidence for a BYU team that could only manage 8 points above Houston and that actually lost in Charloteville last year.
That prediction equates to a score of BYU 31, UVA 17.* Is that realisitc?
(* edit...thanks Sno!)
Basically, anyone taking that bet assumes two things: BYU will do better than they have done in the past three games, and Virginia will do worse. I find both of those propositions tough to buy into and if forced to bet I would be strongly tempted to bet against the notion that BYU could cover the spread.
Lines have a way of being reasonable prediction points most of the time. Not that they are accurate (you probably have memory of several notable exceptions at easy recall), but that they are within striking distance of being so. So you have to give them some credence when thinking up your own prediction about an upcoming game.
Now you could argue that my read on the line is wrong. BYU has averaged more than 35 points in it's first three games and Virginia has managed about 21 points to the two teams it has played most like BYU. So maybe the prediction is a defensive shot at the mean.
But I think the last two games have shown us that last year's games against the same teams have been better predictors of game outcomes than the lines have. (Really? BYU a 1 point favorite over a Longhorn's team that just lost it's starting QB and Center? What was anyone thinking?)
So if you start at last year's outcome and stretch to the current line, then you see where I am coming from. From that perspective, fans are expecting BYU to seriously outpeform over UVA. You can see why they would. It's in Provo and more importantly Taysom Hill actually has some live D1 game experience.
But if you look at how BYU has won the first three games, what stands out to me is a consistently strong defensive effort. I think it is a safer bet to imagine that BYU will win the game by holding Virginia under its scoring average. In fact, if you simply take last year's score's and apply the spread to those scores, you come up with an interesting prediction:
UVA 12 BYU 23
Now to me this seems much more feasible. BYU's defense does the job holding the Caveliers down while the BYU offense, though they struggle, simply cannot be denied for four quarters. One or two breakout plays may end up making all the difference.
Sure Apo and Kurtz could have breakout games, or Jamal could run circles around an elevation-surprised Virginia team. But I think the line overlooks the defensive strength of both teams a bit too much. If BYU scored 35 or more on Virginia it would mean that they had effectively unlocked their potential and were the dominant powerhouse we all wish they were. But we haven't seen that in the first three games and I'm beginning to think we won't see it in the fourth game.
At this point, I'll be quite excited over another "ugly" win if it comes!
That prediction equates to a score of BYU 31, UVA 17.* Is that realisitc?
(* edit...thanks Sno!)
Basically, anyone taking that bet assumes two things: BYU will do better than they have done in the past three games, and Virginia will do worse. I find both of those propositions tough to buy into and if forced to bet I would be strongly tempted to bet against the notion that BYU could cover the spread.
Lines have a way of being reasonable prediction points most of the time. Not that they are accurate (you probably have memory of several notable exceptions at easy recall), but that they are within striking distance of being so. So you have to give them some credence when thinking up your own prediction about an upcoming game.
Now you could argue that my read on the line is wrong. BYU has averaged more than 35 points in it's first three games and Virginia has managed about 21 points to the two teams it has played most like BYU. So maybe the prediction is a defensive shot at the mean.
But I think the last two games have shown us that last year's games against the same teams have been better predictors of game outcomes than the lines have. (Really? BYU a 1 point favorite over a Longhorn's team that just lost it's starting QB and Center? What was anyone thinking?)
So if you start at last year's outcome and stretch to the current line, then you see where I am coming from. From that perspective, fans are expecting BYU to seriously outpeform over UVA. You can see why they would. It's in Provo and more importantly Taysom Hill actually has some live D1 game experience.
But if you look at how BYU has won the first three games, what stands out to me is a consistently strong defensive effort. I think it is a safer bet to imagine that BYU will win the game by holding Virginia under its scoring average. In fact, if you simply take last year's score's and apply the spread to those scores, you come up with an interesting prediction:
UVA 12 BYU 23
Now to me this seems much more feasible. BYU's defense does the job holding the Caveliers down while the BYU offense, though they struggle, simply cannot be denied for four quarters. One or two breakout plays may end up making all the difference.
Sure Apo and Kurtz could have breakout games, or Jamal could run circles around an elevation-surprised Virginia team. But I think the line overlooks the defensive strength of both teams a bit too much. If BYU scored 35 or more on Virginia it would mean that they had effectively unlocked their potential and were the dominant powerhouse we all wish they were. But we haven't seen that in the first three games and I'm beginning to think we won't see it in the fourth game.
At this point, I'll be quite excited over another "ugly" win if it comes!