Utes Perfectly Poised for Despair

Every morning on the way into work the last week or so I have been grinning ear to ear as I listen to Ute fans and local radio personalities gush over how much better Travis Wilson and the Ute offense look this year. After two games, they are convinced Wilson has progressed since last season into a great, heady QB who will now take them to 7-8 wins instead of the 5 wins everyone was expecting coming into the season.



What no one seems to notice, or willfully ignores the reality--Travis Wilson and the Ute offense is exactly the same as a year ago. Just look at where Travis Wilson was a year ago after the Utes again started 2-0:



T. Wilson '13 [v. USU and Weber St]: 31/47 (65.95%), 566 yds, 5TD, 0INT, 202.22 PER

T. Wilson '14 [v. Id.St, and Fres St]: 24/38 (63.15%), 446 yds, 6 TD, 0INT, 213.9 PER



So against essentially the same level of competition, Wilson has thrown for a slightly lower percentage for a slightly higher PER. I see it as a wash.



Now the Utes are headed with all the false-confidence in the world to play the #10 defense in the nation at the Big House. What did Travis Wilson do in 2013 after the same cupcake-inflated start until his injury against ASU?



T. Wilson '13 [v. OrSt, BYU, UCLA, Stanford, AZ, USA, ASU]:

102/190 (53.68%), 1261 yds, 11 TD, 16 INT, 111.7 PER.



He's essentially the Utes' version of Jake Heaps. I'm looking forward to a Ute loss this weekend in Ann Arbor and the wheels coming off the train from then on. A dumpster fire running off the rails, to mix metaphors. A change at the HC position. Couldn't happen to a more deserving team/guy.

They could be a solid team but may not get 6 wins. Look at the schedule from 9/20 to 11/22. It includes:



@Michigan (winnable game)

@ #12 UCLA

Oregon State

#17 USC

@ #15 ASU

#2 Oregon

@ #16 Stanford

Arizona



That is 8 potential/likely losses, some will be beat downs (Oregon). I would not be shocked to see an upset of one of these but would not be shocked to see them lose to Washington State or Colorado.



Utah has looked good, BUT they have not played anyone. That is like judging BYU off of their upcoming Savannah State game. If KW gets Utah to 6 wins he will have done a masterful job. 4-5 wins is very likely.

Sno



It seems like an analysis of Taysom Hill or almost any QB would fluctuate in the same manner based on the defenses they face. Look at Hill last week for example re passing.



Both Utah and BYU field 11 players at a time. Both have some decent talent.



But, yes, if any Ute fan thinks they are headed for a PAC Championship, a huge disappointment is probably coming.



If they are just dreaming of bowl eligibility, that could happen. So could 4-8. Should be fun to watch things unfold.



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I would love to see them get another 2 win PAC season but my money would be on them going bowling this year. I didn't know Michigan had such a highly ranked defense but this is Kwitts bread and butter game. It's after a bye week, it's a huge "get up for it game", at one of the coolest places to play. It's the kind of game he wins. Then they'll be to 3 wins and only have to go 3-6 to get to 6 wins. They wont lose 8 in a row and they'll beat Colorado and Wassu I'd guess. I'm so tired of hearing about the "week in and week out grind" but an advantage to that is if you play 8 good teams a year you are going to beat one eventually (see Stanford).

UCLA has done nothing impressive so far this year, south division QB's are dropping like flies, and all the talk of the PAC being the equal to the SEC is basically gone only 3 weeks in to the season.



Go BLUE!

Most Utah fans I know would be ecstatic with a bowl game. If they beat CU, WSU and Michigan that is 5 wins. The would need one other "upset".



Thy will not likely lose all the games mentioned above, but they could, and from UCLA to Arizona there are no "cupcake" games. It is really a brutal schedule, ranked the hardest by ESPN. I think BYU would fair better than Utah but realistically not sure we would be much better than 6-6.



Play the opposite end to be more positive. I have watched Michigan this year, they are not good.....great brand name but they are down and have not played with passion, I really believe Utah could pull this game out. Utah then plays WSU, they could win that to start 4-0. From there they only need 2 wins with CU still on the schedule. A lot comes down to this Saturday for them, really a "must win" if they want to make a bowl game as I believe excluding CU and WSU this is the next easiest win. They lose this game and I don't see them with 2 or more wins vs non-CU/WSU.

I'm not sure what to make of Utah. Those stats do show that what we've seen thus far could be a mirage - like last year.



But it also looks like the PAC12 South may not be as tough as we thought a month ago either. USC doesn't seem to be able to stop the run. UCLA is less than impressive. Arizona St is deciding between several true freshmen QBs to hold down the fort while their starter gets healthy (out a month).



So, there is still the chance the Utes could get rolling one way (win several unexpected games) or the other (lose the games we thought they were).



Playing on the road is tough. We'll see how Utah reacts.

I thought ASU had a redshirt junior QB that played at the end of the Colorado game...but anyway.



I think Utah probably wins 8 games this year. If the UCLA game were at home, I'd almost give them a lock for that game. I said during the Stanford-USC game that Utah could beat either of those teams...and then USC gets run over by BC.



The Pac 12 was overrated from the beginning, especially at the top of the conference.

I think utah will win. yes the numbers are the same and i think their defense is still mediocre but their offense is good.



wilson didn't have much to work with last year. getting scott back and tonga will make a big difference. now teams must scheme for scott and anderson.



i really think they will be better on offense. i also think they go bowlign because they will win games everybody expects them to lose.



i expect a win for them this week.

If they are down, maybe Cal will win some more games this year and help our SOS.

Michigan doesn't look good, but the Utes might win tomorrow. However I really don't think they'll get more than 5 this year. And if a few bounces go against Utah, they might not get 3.

Michigan's slide seems to be the focus of today's game. Herbstreit just predicted a Utah win on College Game Day.

Ygridiron4ever wrote:
Michigan's slide seems to be the focus of today's game. Herbstreit just predicted a Utah win on College Game Day.

It will not be long before we find out? The Utes have gone in there and won before. It would boost their image if they do it again. They would start flirting with Top 25 status and would definitely be ranked if they win the next game after that.



I am not sure whether I am glad we are not playing them this year or wish we were. Or do not care. Actually, some Bowl like LV Bowl or better depending on our final season records could make some serious money if they horse traded and got this match up somewhere out west.



That is if Utes finally get Bowl eligible.



I think Utah will lose today. Just not very sure about that.



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Well, Michigan was worse than I expected, but the real Utes and Travis Wilson were revealed tonight. Just like last season, here's where the wheels come off.



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Hopefully, the wheels will come off their recruiting class. They are 3-1. They need to lose at least 6 more games to keep the road win at Michigan from saving their season.



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Off the topic, but currently my Vanderbilt has to win 5 of its last 7 to get to bowl eligible. Vandy had 3 consecutive bowl trips prior to this season. Me so sad.