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BYU SOS

by byufan4ever · 9/16/2014

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byufan4ever
I was trying to find a website that showed BYU's opponent's win % AND BYU's opponent's opponent's win % kinda like what you see for basketball RPI but I couldn't find any so I compiled it myself.


BYU Football 2014 SOS.PNG

Virginia and Boise St. look tough while Houston looks weak.
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Guest
This is great. I hope you keep it up through the season.
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NDCougar
This is helpful. We should follow the SoS rankings through out the year, they are published (I believe) and insightful IF BYU keeps winning.



I would expect the SoS to go down throughout the year as the P5 schools get rid of their fluff games and start playing their normal schedule.
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snoscythe
Is there a way to 1) eliminate the result of the BYU game from our opponent's win loss percentage? and 2) to eliminate the result of the opponent's game from the opp-opp's win-loss percentage?



That just seems more relevant to me-->how well they are doing against everyone else, not against BYU (or our opponents as we've already accounted for that game once in the opponent's w/l %).



Maybe I'm off, or the only one that thinks this way.
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runbyu1
I think you're right on Sno and I agree. Putting it together might be some work though...
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BOID
sno, if what you mean is that BSU and VA are advantaged in their three game records because they haven't had to face BYU yet, while Houston has an extra loss (1:2) because they've played BYU already...... then, that makes a lot of sense. You can't really compare them with the others until they've all played BYU.



I'm not so sure that BSU and VA are that much better, or any better than Houston. The red Cougars brought an effective pass rush while maintaining good coverage on our receivers. They were surprisingly aggressive in some ways, and beat us three to zero on TO's. I know, BYU should have covered the point spread better, but still, I don't consider Houston to be weaker than BSU, VA, USU, Cal. Others will no doubt disagree on that. I guess we'll eventually see how those teams fare against BYU.



I feel like UCF is the most enigmatic matchup for us from this point in time. UCF worries me more than the others. It's hard to tell how good the Knights are after their up and down, close, come from behind loss to Penn St.



At any rate, I do believe that BYU's SOS will steadily improve through the course of the season.



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Mars
snoscythe wrote:
Is there a way to 1) eliminate the result of the BYU game from our opponent's win loss percentage? and 2) to eliminate the result of the opponent's game from the opp-opp's win-loss percentage?



That just seems more relevant to me-->how well they are doing against everyone else, not against BYU (or our opponents as we've already accounted for that game once in the opponent's w/l %).



Maybe I'm off, or the only one that thinks this way.

Then UConn/Texas/Houston all move from 1-2 (0.333%) to 1-1 (.500).
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snoscythe
BOID wrote:
sno, if what you mean is that BSU and VA are advantaged in their three game records because they haven't had to face BYU yet, while Houston has an extra loss (1:2) because they've played BYU already...... then, that makes a lot of sense. You can't really compare them with the others until they've all played BYU.


Keeping those scores in the matrix also punishes the SOS of teams who win, but inflates the SOS of losing teams.
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NDCougar
BOID wrote:



At any rate, I do believe that BYU's SOS will steadily improve through the course of the season.



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Not sure I see the SOS improving. I would love to be wrong, but not sure I see BYU's schedule getting increasingly tougher vs the rest of the P5's. A lot of P5's have been playing patsy games, once the conference schedule starts their SOS will bump up.



Not sure how BYU's SOS gets boost late in the season by playing Savannah State, MTSU, UNLV etc. The next few weeks we play good teams (not top tier) which may help a bit but not a lot.
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byufan4ever
I was hesitant to do it the way you are suggesting, but after reading this:



http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/BCS/strength_of_schedule_explain.htm



The BCS way of calculating SOS would take out head to head results AND I-AA wins (but NOT I-AA losses).



I will redo it at some point, but it may not be until after the Virginia game.
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snoscythe
byufan4ever wrote:
I was hesitant to do it the way you are suggesting, but after reading this:



http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/BCS/strength_of_schedule_explain.htm



The BCS way of calculating SOS would take out head to head results AND I-AA wins (but NOT I-AA losses).



I will redo it at some point, but it may not be until after the Virginia game.


No worries man--I don't mean to be a nag. I appreciate you putting it all together for the rest of us leeches.
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BOID
NDCougar wrote:



At any rate, I do believe that BYU's SOS will steadily improve through the course of the season.



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Not sure I see the SOS improving. I would love to be wrong, but not sure I see BYU's schedule getting increasingly tougher vs the rest of the P5's. A lot of P5's have been playing patsy games, once the conference schedule starts their SOS will bump up.



Not sure how BYU's SOS gets boost late in the season by playing Savannah State, MTSU, UNLV etc. The next few weeks we play good teams (not top tier) which may help a bit but not a lot.


What I meant was, that BYU opponent teams, including those BYU has already played, may end up winning more games than pre-season predictions, and more than current predictions. Houston, Virginia, Cal, and even UNR could win more than anticipated. Some had written UT off after the blowout, but they looked pretty good against over-rated UCLA. Also, Virginia beat ranked Louisville. Anyway, I was thinking of the overall SOS as anticipated for 12 opponents, compared to the pre-season predicted SOS. But you are correct in that the running SOS will take a hit during those weeks when weaker oppononents are played.



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NDCougar
BOID, got it. Makes sense.
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byufan4ever
I've taken out all head-to-head results and I-AA wins (but not I-AA losses).


BYU Football 2014 SOS Wk3.PNG

You're welcome.
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YNot
BOID wrote:
Some had written UT off after the blowout, but they looked pretty good against over-rated UCLA. Also, Virginia beat ranked Louisville. Anyway, I was thinking of the overall SOS as anticipated for 12 opponents, compared to the pre-season predicted SOS. But you are correct in that the running SOS will take a hit during those weeks when weaker oppononents are played.


The EXACT same thing happened last year with Texas. They were a HORRIBLE team after BYU exposed their weaknesses. They later had a 6-game win streak, including a convincing win over Oklahoma. They finished the regular season with 8 wins, 7-2 in the Big 12, and had a chance at the Big 12 championship heading into the final game at Baylor.



I actually expect a similar 2014 season for Texas. 7-8 wins; 7-2 or 6-3 in the Big 12, with an outside chance at the Big 12 championship if they upset Baylor or Oklahoma.
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byufan4ever
Updated SOS for last weekend's games:


BYU Football 2014 SOS Wk4.PNG

I made some further changes like taking BYU completely out of the Opp's Opp Record which I think is the correct thing to do. This definitely looks soft although it needs a comparison.
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byufan4ever
Here is updated SOS through Week 5. Since I only count 1-AA losses and not wins, I've had to really check the conference of the teams because many former 1-AA are now part of the Sun Belt and MAC. I added a notes column for last week's results:


BYU Football 2014 SOS Wk5.PNG

I will try to put together one for Utah as well so that we have something to compare it to.
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byufan4ever
So now I've added Utah's SOS in so that we can compare:


BYU Football 2014 SOS Wk5.PNG

I also added the Weighted Ave which is 2/3 Opp Win % and 1/3 Opp's Opp Win %. That's the number that the BCS used for SOS. So, BYU's got the better SOS so far but Utah's got a tough road ahead.
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Cougarbib
Some of our very worst opponents play money aka rollover type games early in the season. Now they will settle into their conference games and may actually win a game here and there. Not many. Maybe 1 or 2 each.
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