BYU vs Opponents Thru Game 3

The sample size is slowly growing, and BYU is looking pretty good through three games on both sides of the ball.



As always, I'm comparing the BYU game to the opponents' season averages (with the BYU game removed from those calculations).



UConn

Held UConn 10 points (10) below their scoring average (20.0).

Allowed UConn 6.5 yards (71)above their rushing average (64.5).

Allowed UConn 98.5 yards (355) above their total offense average (256.5).

Held UConn 13.4 PER (97.62) points below their PER average (111.01).

BYU scored 8 points (35) more than their scoring defense average (27.0).

BYU gained 126.5 more yards (205) than their rushing defense average (78.5).

BYU Gained 216.5 more yards (513) than their total defense average (296.5).

BYU was 36.1 PER points (177.14) above their PER defense average (141.08).



Texas

Held Texas 20.5 points (7) below their scoring average (27.5).

Held Texas 62.5 yards (82) below their rushing average (144.5).

Held Texas 79.5 yards (258) below their total offense average (337.5).

Held Texas 9.1 PER points (116.40) below their PER average (125.48).

BYU scored 27.5 points (41) more than their scoring defense average (13.5).

BYU gained 100.0 more yards (248) than their rushing defense average (148.0).

BYU Gained 160.5 more yards (429) than their total defense average (268.5).

BYU was 21.6 points above (115.57) their PER defense average (93.93).



Houston

Held Houston 2 points (25) below their scoring average (27).

Held Houston 114.5 yards (10) below their rushing average (124.5).

Held Houston 17.5 yards (325) below their total offense average (342.5).

Allowed Houston 32.5 PER points (127.09) above their PER average (94.64).

BYU scored 19.5 points (33) more than their scoring defense average (13.5).

BYU gained 220.5 more yards (323) than their rushing defense average (102.5).

BYU Gained 273.0 more yards (523) than their total defense average (250.0).

BYU was 17.4 points (109.12) above their PER defense average (91.73).



Through three games:

BYU has held all three opponents below their scoring averages.

BYU has two of three opponents below their rushing averages.

BYU has held two of three opponents below their total offense averages.

BYU has held two of three opponents below the PER averages.

BYU has score more points against all three opponents scoring defenses.

BYU has gained more rushing yards against against all three opponents rushing defenses.

BYU has gained more total yards against all three opponents total defenses.

BYU has been above all three opposing PER defenses.

The words or the colors are not all correct in the Texas section.



It looks like the much maligned offense is outperforming the defense even though the defense is performing very well.



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Thanks for the catch in Texas. We held Texas below average when we were on defense and were above average when we were on offense.

What might be interesting is to see what our result was versus their average, for example (with made up numbers):



Allowed Houston 32.5 PER points (132.5) above their PER average (100).

Note that although our overall offense stands better than opponents opponent performance and defense almost always does the same, BYU PER defense VA Houston was a disappointment.



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Cougarbib wrote:
Note that although our overall offense stands better than opponents opponent performance and defense almost always does the same, BYU PER defense VA Houston was a disappointment.



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Yes and no. We shut them down except for a few plays in the 2nd quarter.



I fully expect that PER number vs Houston to look better and better as the season progresses. I think BYU may have shown Houston coaches what O'Korn does well and hopefully they gained some confidence and will play much better vs the remainder of their schedule than what they had to start the season.

Spiff



Are you putting an asterisk by PER? Houston had not exactly been playing against stout defenses in those first 2 games, and we allowed 35 PER points above that average.



Perhaps another asterisk while we are added. BYU offense achieved a lower PER than the Houston offense, yet BYU won. The asterisk here being that PER does not account for the rushing totals of the QB. But that does not explain how BYU allowed a higher PER than Texas San Antonio and Grambling allowed Houston. That ties back to a hail Mary and not creating any interceptions.



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Bib's favorite (though he's never read it) book:



http://images.betterworldbooks.com/047/Asterisk-for-Dummies-9780470098547.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Cougarbib wrote:
Spiff



Are you putting an asterisk by PER? Houston had not exactly been playing against stout defenses in those first 2 games, and we allowed 35 PER points above that average.



Perhaps another asterisk while we are added. BYU offense achieved a lower PER than the Houston offense, yet BYU won. The asterisk here being that PER does not account for the rushing totals of the QB. But that does not explain how BYU allowed a higher PER than Texas San Antonio and Grambling allowed Houston. That ties back to a hail Mary and not creating any interceptions.



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No. What I'm saying is that BYU vs Houston's PER today might look very different than what it will look like at the end of the season.



And you are correct, Houston had a better PER against BYU than they did against UTSA because we didn't force turnovers. They did NOT have a better PER vs BYU than they did vs Grambling.



There is no asterisk necessary, just patience.

Patience seems to mean that you are



Either



Thinking Houston will play a lot of terrible defenses the rest of the season - worse than Texas San Antonio and Grambling which will mask the issue that our defense could not match what they did



Or



Okorn will start to play much better than he has been playing thus masking the fact that we could not defend him even before he improved his play



Or



He sucked week 1. Righted the ship week 2. We held him fine, and he will continue to play the same as be us, but future defenses will wilt proving that BYU played a much different Okorn than Texas San Antonio played.



I will guess that you mean the last one. You may be right, and if so, we should see a hail Mary and zero interceptions every week.



I just think our defense had an off night, personally.



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snoscythe wrote:
Bib's favorite (though he's never read it) book:



http://images.betterworldbooks.com/047/Asterisk-for-Dummies-9780470098547.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Ironically, since the Asterisk guide shown is for Voice Over Internet Protocol software, BIB as a former CIO, might score higher on a test on asterisk than most BYU fans. Never assume what Bib has or has not read.



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Cougarbib wrote:
Patience seems to mean that you are



Either



Thinking Houston will play a lot of terrible defenses the rest of the season - worse than Texas San Antonio and Grambling which will mask the issue that our defense could not match what they did

Grambling did not stop O'Korn. His best PER game this season came against Grambling. We did not match what UTSA did, but we were much better than what Grambling did.



And yes, I think Houston will be playing worse defenses than us the rest of the season. Here are few teams they still have to play: Tulane, UNLV, SMU, Temple and Memphis.

Cougarbib wrote:
Or



Okorn will start to play much better than he has been playing thus masking the fact that we could not defend him even before he improved his play

I think O'Korn will play much better. And we did defend him quite well. Please see my post where I broke down how well BYU defended the pass by quarter and by down.

http://cougarcorner.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17435&start=10#p199412" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Cougarbib wrote:
Or



He sucked week 1. Righted the ship week 2. We held him fine, and he will continue to play the same as be us, but future defenses will wilt proving that BYU played a much different Okorn than Texas San Antonio played.



I will guess that you mean the last one. You may be right, and if so, we should see a hail Mary and zero interceptions every week.



I just think our defense had an off night, personally.



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I do think BYU played a much different O'Korn than UTSA. We did hold him fine. He was below the PER standard. Without the Hail Mary, his PER would have been a paltry 111.85.



Our defense did NOT have an off night defending the pass. They had one off play.



Again, all I'm saying is that these snapshots of how BYU performed against a team change over the course of the season. And that any one snapshot should not be taken as the final result of how well BYU did or did not peform.

What is The PER Standard he was below. 135 is a number that if we achieve on offense, it us average for BYU QBs and we ysuslly win. I would think Bronco expects better than that from our defense. I know 25 points exceeds his tolerance for any opponent and exceeds it by far vs a mid major.



You do not seem to want to talk about what he did without subtracting the Hail Mary. It would be simple unless you are losing faith in PER and now want to adjust the BYU PER by subtracting a completion a lot of yards and a touchdown. They all count. I bet the other teams have a play or two they would like back. Big plays. Defenses are not supposed to give up big plays.



Be straightforward. Just List Unadjusted PER for Houston for each of their three games. And sorry, if BYU starts to look better when compared to a bunch of weak future opposing defenses Houston will play, does that really make our Thursday night defensive performance better.



If we want to compare Thursday night to Houston Vs UCF or Cinci, sure, that might mean something.



Bottom line is that our PASS defense played OK, but not great Thursday because they gave up a big play and did not create any turnovers. One big TD play can make an OFF Night.



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Houston's PER has been listed on multiple occassions. But here is John O'Korn's again:

UTSA 70.1

Grambling 142.1

BYU 126.3



You continue operating under this assumption that BYU played the worst defense vs Houston's passing game yet this season and are then seem to be extrapolating that into believe that BYU's pass defense will continue to be the worst pass defense Houston will face this year.



I don't have a defensive PER standard. Just the QB standard. If you are a QB you should be able to hit that number. And if you want to win, you need to hit that standard. O'Korn failed to hit that number.



And yes, if Houston does start performing well against other opponents, then yes, it does show how well BYU the defense played. The WHOLE point of me doing these types of comparisons is to show how BYU performed compared to other opponents. So if, other defenses don't do as well as BYU, then it shows that the BYU performance was even better than we thought.



Again, you have to constantly reevaluate everything as the season goes on.



If a team plays 12 teams and, I don't know hypothetically has a PER above 135 in 10 of the 12 games, I think it would be safe to assume that the two defenses that didn't yield a 135 PER were indeed two of the best passing defenses that team played.



I'm not ceasing to evaluate the BYU vs Houston game. These numbers will be adjusted each and every week. Next week, we'll be able to compare to how BYU did compared to three other Houston opponents, whereas now it's just two. And then it'll be BYU vs four opponents and five. Until we have a complete season of statistics. At THAT point, we'll be able to make a final determination as to how well the defense played.



Was the BYU defense great vs Houston? Not for the entire game, no they weren't. But they were in the 2nd half and in the 1st quarter. They were poor in the 2nd quarter. But they were more than sufficient and up for the task.

Actually I knew the PER BYU allowed was in between the previous two opponents, worse than TSA and a little better than Grambling, who I believe you referenced as being terrible in one of the threads. I had never seen the BYU PER, but thought you posted that it was 35 more than average. So I took 70 for TSA and 142 for Grambling and added to get 212 and divided by 2 to get 106 and added 35 to get 141. Apparently, one of those pieces of information was wrong. But even with what you just posted, I take little solace in being about 15 points better than Grambling and 45 or so worse than UTSA.



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Spiff

I am using your numbers. They are inconsistent. I just calculated an average PER of 106 using 70 plus 142.

The OP now says average PER was 94.64 with BYU allowing 32.5 worse equaling about 127. It does not add up.



Which raises another question I am mixing the average PER BY allows with the average PER Houston was allowed by its other oppinents.



How did BY PER defense vs Houston compare with BYU PER defense vs Texas and VS UCoNN. That is another way to measure Thursday night BYU pass defense.



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I don't calculate average PER by adding all the PERs and dividing by the number of PERs. (70+142)/2.



I calculate it by adding the number of yards, attempts, completions, touchdowns and interceptions and then plugging them into the PER formula.



Houston was above what BYU had allowed, on average, in the two previous games. So yes, it was BYU's worst defensive PER effort of the season. And it might turn out to be the worst when all is said and done.



In fact, it is possible that the Houston game will represent BOTH one of the worst offensive PER nights for Houston AND one of the worst defensive PER nights for BYU.

But Spiff, if I have a class of 50 students and 49 of them fail, and I have another class of 1 and 0 fail, that gives me a passing percentage for each class, one of 2% and one of 100%, so that means that 51% of my students passed the test [(100+2)/2], right? ;)

Schmoe wrote:
But Spiff, if I have a class of 50 students and 49 of them fail, and I have another class of 1 and 0 fail, that gives me a passing percentage for each class, one of 2% and one of 100%, so that means that 51% of my students passed the test [(100+2)/2], right? ;)

pretty easy to calculate when the details are provided, isn't it. But whether you average the two scores or average the details behind the scores, BYU defensive performance last Thursday night was only marginally worse than Grambling performed and much worse than Texas San Antonio performed, and probably worse than if BYU could have a do over game with Houston. Our new DC and our lock down corner got schooled on the hail Mary and I would guess that Bronco and the new DC have been talking to the defensive players about creating more turnovers.



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hawkwing wrote:
What might be interesting is to see what our result was versus their average, for example (with made up numbers):



Allowed Houston 32.5 PER points (132.5) above their PER average (100).

Another question. Passing yards performance is not spelled out. I have always assumed that if I subtract rushing numbers from total offense numbers that I would be correctly backing into passing yard numbers. Is that correct? I think adding a row specific to passing yards would be useful. For example, it would jump right out, then, that our passing defense allowed UCONN and Houston way over their average on passing yards, but held Texas slightly below theirs.



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