Does overlooking the obvious = Loss to Virginia?

In hindsight it seems funny that people were surprised by BYU beating Texas. After all, it wasn't really all that shocking. In fact, if you knew nothing else but last year's stats and were told this much, "BYU's returning QB has worked on his passing game and wants to run less--oh, and the Texas offense will start a 2nd string QB and Center," then the box score afterward would seem completely reasonable to you.



Meanwhile if you knew nothing else other than the fact that BYU and Houston played a see-saw game that was decided by a last minute score in Houston, but BYU won, and then that this year's game would be played in Provo and BYU was a bit improved, then an 8 point win that BYU never trailed in wouldn't be a surprise one way or the other.



It seems as though people's expectations that Texas should have a realistic shot in beating us now look ridiculous. But if that were true then it would have been equally ridiculous to expect BYU to blow out Houston. Whether you predict that BYU would put up 60 points or declare that this game was an "underachievement," either way you would be overlooking the obvious.



One reality seems to be more important than all others three games into the season: "The same teams that played last year will play again this year, with minor variations for locations, times and another year's experience.



If THAT is the more reliable predictor, then what can we expect from the Virginia game? How about BYU struggling on offense and a close scoring game? BYU at home with a long week to rest should help and, believe it or not, this team is better than last year's team on both sides of the ball, and all this SHOULD translate into a win over the Cavaliers next week--a single digit win even.



Some will lament that this is not good enough for the playoffs and NC etc., its just as well, the team doesn't control its own destiny there anyway. The real problem is that if BYU is simply not a world-beater, dominating team that walks over opponents (despite the score, that's not what happened in Texas, neither this year nor last year) then close games are all subject to a fluke play or simply the proverbial bad bounce.



Going undefeated will surely be trick then--a feat of luck along with whatever else is involved. As bummed as I am about not being able to realistically hope for the playoffs, I can still hope for an undefeated season anyway. It isn't unreasonable. But wow is it improbable considering things from this moment in time.



One extra runback from a kick, one extra dropped ball, one tip-and-picked off pass from Taysom, any of these things could result in a Virginia win. I'm not going to spend a second wishing we had won better or by a larger margin. I am going to savor every win no matter how it comes, because we'll never know when the next one simply won't come.

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First, don't want to jump into UVA just yet. I want to see how they play vs Louisville this weekend. If they win it one thing and if they get blown out it is another. Any BYU fan should be cheering for UVA to win and show they are legit, it helps us either way.



Second, no one I know was shocked BYU won. Even non-BYU fans expected BYU to win, the spread was as tight as it was due to UT being at home and UT having the "brand". Everyone (literally) I spoke with expect BYU to win. The surprise was winning by 34 points, I expected a double digit but not a (nearly) 5 TD win.



Third, UVA was BAD last year and got BYU at the right time. They got BYU at home, on a weird day (lighting), with a QB who was back from knee surgery, first game of the year.......UVA won and it is a credit to them but it was a fluky day (not a fluke win). This year BYU is at home, with a MUCH more polished and experienced QB, extra days rest vs UVA coming off a ranked team, playing at a high altitude etc. BYU will win if it takes care of what it needs to.



I will reserve my guess until I see how UVA does this weekend.

Stirfry wrote:
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSZa0iWxs0o

Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

mizzoucoug wrote:
Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

I haven't seen many "stupid" penalties since the UConn game. Some of these personal fouls we're getting have just been outrageously bad calls. Not all of them. Just saying that penalties wouldn't seem so bad if it weren't for the phantom calls.

Virginia will be playing BYU at an inopportune time. BYU just survived a bit of a scare, and will come back improved, and hungry to separate its program from also-ran, mediocre P5 teams. The Cougs will not lose the TO ratio, and will beat VA by 20 points at home.



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Raiderboy wrote:

Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

I haven't seen many "stupid" penalties since the UConn game. Some of these personal fouls we're getting have just been outrageously bad calls. Not all of them. Just saying that penalties wouldn't seem so bad if it weren't for the phantom calls.

And I didn't see any phantom calls. Everything was legit, even throwing shadow punches. BYU has an over-aggression problem and it's killing them every time they have a chance to put a team down for good. UVA is good enough to expose this.

mizzoucoug wrote:

mizzoucoug wrote:
Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

I haven't seen many "stupid" penalties since the UConn game. Some of these personal fouls we're getting have just been outrageously bad calls. Not all of them. Just saying that penalties wouldn't seem so bad if it weren't for the phantom calls.

And I didn't see any phantom calls. Everything was legit, even throwing shadow punches. BYU has an over-aggression problem and it's killing them every time they have a chance to put a team down for good. UVA is good enough to expose this.

Previously BYU was berated by fans for being too docile. Remember when fans where wondering if "bishop" Bronco and coaching staff were reading scriptures during halftime because BYU had no "fire". I appreciate the new and "over-aggressive" BYU team.

mizzoucoug wrote:

mizzoucoug wrote:
Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

I haven't seen many "stupid" penalties since the UConn game. Some of these personal fouls we're getting have just been outrageously bad calls. Not all of them. Just saying that penalties wouldn't seem so bad if it weren't for the phantom calls.

And I didn't see any phantom calls. Everything was legit, even throwing shadow punches. BYU has an over-aggression problem and it's killing them every time they have a chance to put a team down for good. UVA is good enough to expose this.

So far this year, BYU has put two of its three opponents down for good. And the third opponent they completely shut down offensively in the 2nd half. They allowed one real drive that half. It wasn't over-aggresive penalties that set up Houston's final TD drive (there were none that drive) or their final FG drive (it was a 3-and-out - except they were kicking for a FG rather than punting).



These are correctable calls. Plays that players just need to show more awareness. But they don't really need to change the aggression level.

SpiffCoug wrote:

Raiderboy wrote:

Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

I haven't seen many "stupid" penalties since the UConn game. Some of these personal fouls we're getting have just been outrageously bad calls. Not all of them. Just saying that penalties wouldn't seem so bad if it weren't for the phantom calls.

And I didn't see any phantom calls. Everything was legit, even throwing shadow punches. BYU has an over-aggression problem and it's killing them every time they have a chance to put a team down for good. UVA is good enough to expose this.

So far this year, BYU has put two of its three opponents down for good. And the third opponent they completely shut down offensively in the 2nd half. They allowed one real drive that half. It wasn't over-aggresive penalties that set up Houston's final TD drive (there were none that drive) or their final FG drive (it was a 3-and-out - except they were kicking for a FG rather than punting).



These are correctable calls. Plays that players just need to show more awareness. But they don't really need to change the aggression level.

Haven't seen Fua fishing any more.

BYU better get their beat Texas intensity back on or they will lose to UVA. if our Oline hoes soft again, THill will get hammered by UVA D.

It's official, game is on ESPN.

The Tejan Koroma expulsion is being appealed. If it stands. He is out the first half vs UVA. The OL is not the same when he is out and the UVA defensive line is legit.



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mizzoucoug wrote:
Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

"its at home so we wont lose."????? Wow, BYU plays its worse game out of 3 and you come out with that? This is the type of mental weakness that if the team adopts (and certainly seemed to have vs UH) that will take the Cougs down (and almost did) vs reasonably good teams). Thats the whole point of the title of this thread. Im not trying to pick a fight, but the OP was spot on.

Consider the following mental fallacies and traps:

BYU is at home, therefore they should win. (In fact BYU played its weakest mental game at home)

BYU is favored, therefore it should win.

BYU is better than its opponents this year, therefore it should win.

BYU will likely be favored in all of its remaining games, therefore it should win.

BYU has a Heisman contender, therefore I (a given player or players) can slack off.

BYU starts as fast as it should given all its talent, scheme, and prep, therefore it can slack off and coast starting in the 2nd quarter.

BYU has been dominating all 3 teams during parts of the game, therefore BYU will win.

BYU is "satisfied" (GMonson article) with a certain performance the week before and thinks therefore, that it should not prepare as hard or as tough. Maybe BYU should not act like they just won the World Series after beating Texas bc of what it does to its own psyche?? Or at least have something to counter that type of celebration. Credit the D, They were much more ready to sustain a full game intensity as compared to the O, but a player from both indicated that they slacked off.



See, there are many many ways that this team will have to conquer its own mental demons almost moreso than any of its opponents (and even that has its own inherent fallacy)



Hey Bronco and BYU! Identify the obvious that has a chance of being overlooked and face it and slay the dragon!

I bet UVA doesn't play as well vs BYU as they did vs Louisville. They're in a similar type of circumstance as BYU vs Houston. Big emotional win. Short week ( compared to BYU and a travel day). Road trip.



I bet BYU comes out rested and ready to play. of course, they came out ready to play vs Houston too.



BYU is a good team and possibly a great team.

Cougs_Rule wrote:

Yeah it'll be a close game due to stupid penalties--a Bronco trademark. We've had 2/3 games so far heavily influenced by dumb, preventable penalties. At a certain point in time you have to accept dumb penalties not as a "fixable" problem but rather as an attitudinal reality. It's really no different from the fact that UofH is determined to create lots of turnovers and they do--it's all attitude. (Lovie Smith has preached this his whole career.)



We're better than UVA but they have top 30 recruiting classes every season. Thankfully it's at home so we won't lose. But I am struggling to predict anything more than a 10 point victory with the way this team is killing itself.

"its at home so we wont lose."????? Wow, BYU plays its worse game out of 3 and you come out with that? This is the type of mental weakness that if the team adopts (and certainly seemed to have vs UH) that will take the Cougs down (and almost did) vs reasonably good teams). Thats the whole point of the title of this thread. Im not trying to pick a fight, but the OP was spot on.

Consider the following mental fallacies and traps:

BYU is at home, therefore they should win. (In fact BYU played its weakest mental game at home)

BYU is favored, therefore it should win.

BYU is better than its opponents this year, therefore it should win.

BYU will likely be favored in all of its remaining games, therefore it should win.

BYU has a Heisman contender, therefore I (a given player or players) can slack off.

BYU starts as fast as it should given all its talent, scheme, and prep, therefore it can slack off and coast starting in the 2nd quarter.

BYU has been dominating all 3 teams during parts of the game, therefore BYU will win.

BYU is "satisfied" (GMonson article) with a certain performance the week before and thinks therefore, that it should not prepare as hard or as tough. Maybe BYU should not act like they just won the World Series after beating Texas bc of what it does to its own psyche?? Or at least have something to counter that type of celebration. Credit the D, They were much more ready to sustain a full game intensity as compared to the O, but a player from both indicated that they slacked off.



See, there are many many ways that this team will have to conquer its own mental demons almost moreso than any of its opponents (and even that has its own inherent fallacy)



Hey Bronco and BYU! Identify the obvious that has a chance of being overlooked and face it and slay the dragon!

Yeah, had we played @ UofH we probably would've found a way to lose this game. Playing at home means the world in college sports. Do you need examples? Home field advantage is well-documented and BYU is no exception. There's a lot of reasons why we should beat UVA, but the most helpful one is that the game is in Provo. What do you want from me? I picked us to smack UT and beat UofH by only 4. The OP makes good points but his points didn't describe every fan.

Fair enough. My issue is with the mental weakness of players and or coaches who could easily bring only 70% or slack off to 70% after they have a good start bc they are "at home".

The narrow edge of undefeated and not is very narrow. Can't afford stuff like that when otherwise this team has very favorable chances to go undefeated.

Watch the BYU players vs other teams. One thing that stands out is that our players give max effort on nearly every play. That is the trademark of a swarmming D and a successful running O. You don't get either if players loaf and we haven't seen that yet this year so I don't see why it would start now.



I think VA may have a good D but I would not at this point put them over a Texas D. UVA may get top 30 recruiting classes but Tx is usually top 10 worthy. Strong should be getting more from them but I think it will come as the old players leave (and take the old attitudes with them) and the new recruites start from scratch with Strong.



That said, I can see us putting a beat down on VA this year. If we do, I can't wait to hear the pundits explain why VA beat Lou and almost UCLA but were manhandled by BYU. Here's to UVA getting hammered in Provo and then going on to win their division.

BYU is "satisfied" (GMonson article) with a certain performance the week before and thinks therefore, that it should not prepare as hard or as tough.

Luckily, Ute-beat writer Monson took time out of his illustrious schedule to condescend to write something about BYU this week (he realized nobody cares to read about the Utes right now), and point out the BYU players are currently UNsatisfied with their game last week. While I find it quaint for him to suggest that only someone on the Utah coaching staff could articulate that notion, (is it really time for me to drag out the story about "the BYU effect" again?) I was at least appreciative that he acknowledged the current BYU team carries themselves with focus and intensity.



UVA's win sets up a fabulous opportunity for the cougars this week. The fact that BYU jumped three spots in the polls shows voters won't penalize BYU for margins in the end. W is what counts!