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Why Taysom is unlikely to beat UH

by Yzzazz · 9/10/2014

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Yzzazz
...on his own. I do think BYU will win the game tomorrow, I just don't think Taysom will do it--that is to say he won't run crazy routes or make a bunch of long TD strikes, or both. Taysom will need to rely on the rest of the team, particularly the defense.



I think the BYU offense may look a bit sluggish by comparison. They may win the game in more pedestrian fashion than people expect, but I expect it will be by design as the game plays out. Consequently, the game could go something like BYU 27 UH 7, and that would be a WELL-PLAYED GAME, but a game most fans would be disappointed with.



Brian Logan predicted 60-14 BYU win on AFR--that's the kind of output everyone hopes to see. Here is why it will not happen, IMHO.



1. Last year's defense and special teams struggled in Houston, this year's squads will likely do better.



This isn't a stretch of the imagination. The defense, amazingly enough, is actually better in the post Van Noy era, and it wouldn't take much for them to improve over last year. Special teams is still a question mark, but one simple point of physics will play in their favor: altitude. The increased hang time on punts and kicks should allow coverage teams to do a better job than they did last year. That may be true coming the other way, but we don't really care, we just don't want big returns to improve field position for Houston.



Now if you are willing to go along with that first point, then the next shouldn't be too hard to take in.



2. Taysom won't take many long passes. Taysom took risks and passed aggressively against UH last year. In large part, however, because he had to. UH scores, BYU must answer. That was the story. Having to move the ball down field quickly and engineer drive after drive left few options.



But if our defense and special teams don't dig the offense in a hole, then Taysom can take what the UH defense (and ever other defense) will necessarily give him--the short pass. The short passing and up-the-middle running plays will allow BYU to be very patient.



3. Anae will correspondingly call a conservative game. The worst thing BYU could do would be to lose to Houston right now. 10 weeks down the road, no one will care about the margin of victory over Houston. The W will be all that matters. For all the talk of how much better a team BYU was than Houston, last year's game was razor close. Given the chance to keep a lid on the game, all coaches will take it. I think if BYU finds UH is struggling on offense (because our defense is legit!) and if BYU gets a couple of touchdowns ahead, then the Anae and Howell will call conservative and let BYU run out the clock as quick as possible. In the end, it will be a wise decision, but a controversial one in the minds of some fans.



That's how I see the game playing out. Taysom won't go crazy simply because he won't have to. While I would love to see the Brian Logan prophecy fulfilled, I think it is asking too much for BYU to expect that kind of performance against a team that returns most of its starters and nearly had BYU's number last year. A boring defensive win will suit me just fine!
S
SpiffCoug
UH also returns that DL/LB who terrorized Taysom last year. As great as Taysom was last year (417 yds passing 128 rushing) he was still sacked EIGHT (8) times last year vs Houston. He lost 66 yards on sacks last year. In addition to those eight sacks, Taysom had 3 other carries for 0 yards. That's 11 attempts 0 or negative yards. We can't have a repeat of that performance.
M
mizzoucoug
Yeah no reason to get overhyped about this team. We're in week 3 and we all remember Florida State. Play solid on D and the rest will take care of itself.
C
Cougs_Rule
Is the 2014 D better than 2013? How can you make that claim? Not sure the data exists.

Not better than the start of the year. Better then the end, after injuries. Maybe.
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SpiffCoug
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Is the 2014 D better than 2013? How can you make that claim? Not sure the data exists.

Not better than the start of the year. Better then the end, after injuries. Maybe.

I know it's comparing a year's worth of data to two games, but here's a comparions between the 2013 and 2014 defenses against our first two opponents



2013

Scoring: held the teams 10.6 and 9.0 points below average

Rushing: helt teams 51.9 and 69.6 yards below average

Total Defense: held on team 158.6 yards below and the other 39.3 above average

PER: held one team 6.3 points below and the other 12.9 points above average.



2014

Scoring: held the teams 9 and 31 points below average

Rushing: held one team to the average and the other 81 yards below average

Total Defense: allowed one team 142 more yards and the other 95 fewer yards than average

PER: Allowed one team 3.2 points above and the other 3.9 points below average.
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Yzzazz
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Is the 2014 D better than 2013? How can you make that claim? Not sure the data exists.

Not better than the start of the year. Better then the end, after injuries. Maybe.


Fair to ask. I think the defense this year seems to hit assignments more consistently than last year. My opinion, and it is only that, however the Texas score was pretty outstanding data.

.bb



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M
Mars


1- BYU players have said this week that they are preparing for Houston "like it's the Super Bowl". I like that. It shows both respect for the opponent and determination by our guys.



2- I don't think that our defense is as good this year. I don't think we've faced an elite O-line yet, and I don't think we've faced an elite quarterback or passing game yet.
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mizzoucoug
Mars wrote:


1- BYU players have said this week that they are preparing for Houston "like it's the Super Bowl". I like that. It shows both respect for the opponent and determination by our guys.



2- I don't think that our defense is as good this year. I don't think we've faced an elite O-line yet, and I don't think we've faced an elite quarterback or passing game yet.


Yep. We still don't know how good our DB's are but I am optimistic that we have improved there over the last 2 years (or more).
S
SpiffCoug
Because this trend continues:



BYU is 1-4 in Game 3s where Game 3 is also the home opener.



1978, BYU beat Colorado St

1982 BYU lost to Air Force

1994 BYU lost to Colorado St

2009 BYU lost to Florida St

2011 BYU lost to Utah
C
craigoscarson
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Is the 2014 D better than 2013? How can you make that claim? Not sure the data exists.

Not better than the start of the year. Better then the end, after injuries. Maybe.


yes yes and yes it is... a defense is only as good as it weakest link and our secondary was porous and lacked depth last year and our linebacker corps was discombobulated with Spencer Hadley and his Vegas fiasco....



Michael Davis had no clue how to play db last year, couldn't tackle, etc etc He's really really good this year



Our defense is better, deeper, and with less weak links. Even the product on the field the last two weeks shows that (and I don't think we've yet hit on all cylinders either).
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frdbtr
BYU's defense is going to shut off Houston's passing game today and then people (meaning BYU fans) are going to point to how weak Houston has been this year and still claim our defense isn't that good. My bold prediction thread was that this years defense would be better than the 2014 defense and I still believe that. We have good, solid Dline play, Our linebackers are just as good as 2012, and our secondary is much, much better than 2012 which will make the front seven look even better than it is.
Q
Qman
Talking to some UH fans, they are really, really concerned that UT-SA ran right over the top of them. BYU should be able to do the same. To me we just run the ball every down for the first couple of series and see if we can just crush them.
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mtnradio
Is BYU Defense better? Perhaps overall they appear to be more balanced, and perhaps a little deeper.



The big change between this year and last year, in my mind, the O-Line: this year appears to be much better. That means a better offensive game, the ability to run and protect Hill.



I think Brian Logan was WAY to optimistic for my tastes. I am truly hoping BYU will break 30 points today. Houston could put up some points ...



The best thing I read in this thread is the team saying that they are preparing like this is the Superbowl! That put a smile on my face :crazy: It suggests intensity, desire, respect and that is how you win games!
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frdbtr
mtnradio wrote:
Is BYU Defense better? Perhaps overall they appear to be more balanced, and perhaps a little deeper.



The big change between this year and last year, in my mind, the O-Line: this year appears to be much better. That means a better offensive game, the ability to run and protect Hill.



I think Brian Logan was WAY to optimistic for my tastes. I am truly hoping BYU will break 30 points today. Houston could put up some points ...



The best thing I read in this thread is the team saying that they are preparing like this is the Superbowl! That put a smile on my face :crazy: It suggests intensity, desire, respect and that is how you win games!


Yeah, Bronco just doesn't let his teams score 60. I don't think one of his teams ever has. I think they have scored in the 50's and of course 59 against ucla but I don't think 60. I do think BYU is going to pour it on in this one though. I am going to predict 53-7.
M
Mars


Bronco said yesterday that he is preparing his team like this is a 1-game season, and that game is Houston.



He said that his players are humble after wins, but that they are going into games with "swagger" this year.
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mtnradio
Mars wrote:


Bronco said yesterday that he is preparing his team like this is a 1-game season, and that game is Houston.



He said that his players are humble after wins, but that they are going into games with "swagger" this year.




This is a change of rhetoric. In the past it has been "business-like" etc.



Is there a true change of attitude?
R
redneckjedi
frdbtr wrote:
Is BYU Defense better? Perhaps overall they appear to be more balanced, and perhaps a little deeper.



The big change between this year and last year, in my mind, the O-Line: this year appears to be much better. That means a better offensive game, the ability to run and protect Hill.



I think Brian Logan was WAY to optimistic for my tastes. I am truly hoping BYU will break 30 points today. Houston could put up some points ...



The best thing I read in this thread is the team saying that they are preparing like this is the Superbowl! That put a smile on my face :crazy: It suggests intensity, desire, respect and that is how you win games!


Yeah, Bronco just doesn't let his teams score 60. I don't think one of his teams ever has. I think they have scored in the 50's and of course 59 against ucla but I don't think 60. I do think BYU is going to pour it on in this one though. I am going to predict 53-7.


It happened once, against Air Force, in 2005. 62-41. Fisher DeBerry didn't throw in the towel down 41-7 late in the third. Thanks to a fumbled kickoff, a punt return TD, and some very questionable officiating, Air Force was able to score 5 more touchdowns. But we scored three of our own. Final score, 62-41.
G
Gunk
redneckjedi wrote:
mtnradio wrote:
Is BYU Defense better? Perhaps overall they appear to be more balanced, and perhaps a little deeper.



The big change between this year and last year, in my mind, the O-Line: this year appears to be much better. That means a better offensive game, the ability to run and protect Hill.



I think Brian Logan was WAY to optimistic for my tastes. I am truly hoping BYU will break 30 points today. Houston could put up some points ...



The best thing I read in this thread is the team saying that they are preparing like this is the Superbowl! That put a smile on my face :crazy: It suggests intensity, desire, respect and that is how you win games!


Yeah, Bronco just doesn't let his teams score 60. I don't think one of his teams ever has. I think they have scored in the 50's and of course 59 against ucla but I don't think 60. I do think BYU is going to pour it on in this one though. I am going to predict 53-7.


It happened once, against Air Force, in 2005. 62-41. Fisher DeBerry didn't throw in the towel down 41-7 late in the third. Thanks to a fumbled kickoff, a punt return TD, and some very questionable officiating, Air Force was able to score 5 more touchdowns. But we scored three of our own. Final score, 62-41.


If we're to make it to the playoffs this year, we're going to need to go undefeated and put of some insane numbers in addition to a bunch of people losing in front of us.



Point is, Bronco needs to get over his reluctance to run up the score.
S
SpiffCoug
And we need to jump on these teams early. We can't have a couple late scores make up the difference either. We need to be like the UConn game where it's 28-7 at the half or Texas where it's 34-0 in the 3rd quarter.
Y
Yzzazz
Gunk wrote:



If we're to make it to the playoffs this year, we're going to need to go undefeated and put of some insane numbers in addition to a bunch of people losing in front of us.



Point is, Bronco needs to get over his reluctance to run up the score.


I think Bronco gets that, actually. If there was ever a year where it "needed" to be done, this is it. We might actually see some run-ups for just that reason as long as BYU remains undefeated.
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