How Houston beats BYU

BYU will win the game against Houston, right. Everyone knows that is as true as testimonies on Fast day.



So what could go wrong?



Plenty.



1. Short week, emotionally strung out players that couldn't wind down and enough sleep in the last 72 hours because they were excited, partying, talking and telling it all over again and again to friends and family, watching film, nursing bruises, etc.



2. Injuries in practice. Thankfully a the fourth quarter shortened the game a bit, but muscles and joints strained to the limit in the game might not complete their toll until midweek. While the defense seems deeper on this team than I remember ever seeing it, and the offense didn't seem too banged up, the reality is that BYU is only one deep at the most critical position: QB.



3. Overconfidence. It happens.



4. Underpreparation. Houston's high-octane offense is complex. It takes them some time to gel. Third time could be a charm for them and if the defense (or Howell) isn't ready to pick up the sets they see, then BYU could get behind quickly.



5. Game injuries. GFGH has a downside. More plays per game = more injuries per game.



6. Suspensions. Here's hoping the players keep their heads on straight and don't let the Texas success amp the swag to the point of partying, etc. I am always surprised by the capacity of the young adult male to act well beyond the bounds of reason and responsibility just when a small amount of discipline is required for even a short time.



7. Bronco gets hit by a bus. Actually, have you noticed? This is NOT a problem. This could happen and the team would still function as normal. At least for the next game. Bronco has finally arrived at a point where he is the effective executive and has surrounded himself with great people. Good for him! He deserves this for all his diligent, conscientious, heart-felt efforts. But he's not done with his work yet, so the bus thing is not realistic.



Okay, I tried to think up everything I could, and I was surprised how little hope Houston really has, even when you go looking for it. Here's hoping Taysom outpaces his last performance in Houston, and the defense outperforms compared to their last matchup with the cougs in red.



BYU 45

UH 0



Rise and Shout!

Unless our special teams play kills us, BYU wins this one.



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Somebody help me remember exactly how last year's Houston game went. Seems to me like everything that could bounce their way did (except of course the final score) and that's what kept the game close. I remember just when I thought we were about to blow the game open they ran a kick back, so on and so forth. Didn't they have a pick six, halfback TD pass, a billion missed sacks by Van Noy which resulted in touchdown passes etc. Can't remember all that occurred.

All good, except for #5...There is no statistical proof that more plays per game lead to more injuries.

1. Short week. Both teams suffer equally. Non factor.

2. Again, both teams at some risk. Actually, Bronco finally has a better two-deep situation this year than in many past, bc of more reps for CS. so, sort of factor but not.

3. I think this could be the greatest risk of all points made and any that I can think of. That locker room celebration was pandamonium. And BYU doesnt typically handle success very well. Most salient risk.

4. Moderate possibility. Saw it last year. it wont be a surprize.

4.a. Your sub-point within this point is that by third game it could gel. might be true.

5. point already Debunked. Its bigger, more agressive teams (Wisc, ND) that took its toll, not # of plays.

6. Now you are stretching. Always a threat, particularly if the brothers got together and partied again. BUt dont think so. They will either be smarter and more clandestine or not.

7. no comment necessary.



Pride, talk of undefeated, talk of Heisman, LeBron effect on team, etc will be the greatest risk.

Go Cougs!!

DeVon wrote:
Somebody help me remember exactly how last year's Houston game went. Seems to me like everything that could bounce their way did (except of course the final score) and that's what kept the game close. I remember just when I thought we were about to blow the game open they ran a kick back, so on and so forth. Didn't they have a pick six, halfback TD pass, a billion missed sacks by Van Noy which resulted in touchdown passes etc. Can't remember all that occurred.

That's right, just quoted myself. Re-watching the '13 Houston game right now, first 3 Houston scores: kick-off return, wildcat QB 70 yard TD pass (you remember, this is the one where their WR pushed Morgan to the ground and there was no call), and pick six on a TERRIBLE Taysom throw. Excuse my arrogance, but they had no business being in a close game with us last year...and we're better this year. I predict a 3 touchdown win this year.

Last year, Hill threw 3 interceptions including a pick 6. Houston also had a 95 yard return for a TD. That kind of stuff could lose the game.



Luckily, Houston threw 3 interceptions and missed 2 field goals. Both BYU and Houston failed on 2-point conversions.



Houston has almost everyone back. Experience. Last year, their strength went head on with our weakness. This year, all of those injured defensive backs are on the field. This is their first real opportunity to show that pass defense is no longer a weakness.



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Im really not sure our D has been tested. Their O is more likely to be improved than our D. I really look forward to seeing how our D is against maybe the best passing team BYu will see all year.

And again, the hubris is already seeping out of fans. I have to believe it is coming out of players as well. BYU should win this game.

DeVon wrote:
Somebody help me remember exactly how last year's Houston game went. Seems to me like everything that could bounce their way did (except of course the final score) and that's what kept the game close. I remember just when I thought we were about to blow the game open they ran a kick back, so on and so forth. Didn't they have a pick six, halfback TD pass, a billion missed sacks by Van Noy which resulted in touchdown passes etc. Can't remember all that occurred.

We gave up a td right before half after Povey came off his man while the QB was still behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th down play. They guy weaved his way through traffic into the end zone. Another reason why I dislike the guy. He plays outside his assignment and BYU gets burned because of it.

This thread should just as well be titled, "Best Read of the Season" for players, guests, and all of Cougar nation, and others too. From Yzzazz's posting especially, I was kind of captivated from there in one sitting.



I add one point: have fun with success Cougar nation.



Be cool 8) or be crazy :crazy:



And, a second point. Regardless of where you're at with your, ahem celebratory practices, or morality, or smack talk, or whatever else, and this goes from player to fan to everyone, we should all be decent anyway. Really, regardless of where you're at, it's cool to go crazy and/or insane, while also being a decent and good person.



The starched white shirts should agree with this, but I don't think they go crazy enough. And, for the rest of us who might not really fit that (like me, even though I am active LDS, but don't fit in because I'm liberal) we can accept you too. @jwpresearch

frdbtr wrote:

Somebody help me remember exactly how last year's Houston game went. Seems to me like everything that could bounce their way did (except of course the final score) and that's what kept the game close. I remember just when I thought we were about to blow the game open they ran a kick back, so on and so forth. Didn't they have a pick six, halfback TD pass, a billion missed sacks by Van Noy which resulted in touchdown passes etc. Can't remember all that occurred.

We gave up a td right before half after Povey came off his man while the QB was still behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th down play. They guy weaved his way through traffic into the end zone. Another reason why I dislike the guy. He plays outside his assignment and BYU gets burned because of it.

Last year. Injured player. Playing corner and safety and nickel to fill in. Let's assume you know who had what assignment on that play. BAM. 7 of the 46 points. Who do you hate for the other 39 points? Last year.



What did you think of his play last week? He saw a lot of time Vs some very athletic receivers.



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Lack of focus could lose this game for us. That and Houston having success with throwing the ball.



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Cougarbib wrote:

DeVon wrote:
Somebody help me remember exactly how last year's Houston game went. Seems to me like everything that could bounce their way did (except of course the final score) and that's what kept the game close. I remember just when I thought we were about to blow the game open they ran a kick back, so on and so forth. Didn't they have a pick six, halfback TD pass, a billion missed sacks by Van Noy which resulted in touchdown passes etc. Can't remember all that occurred.

We gave up a td right before half after Povey came off his man while the QB was still behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th down play. They guy weaved his way through traffic into the end zone. Another reason why I dislike the guy. He plays outside his assignment and BYU gets burned because of it.

Last year. Injured player. Playing corner and safety and nickel to fill in. Let's assume you know who had what assignment on that play. BAM. 7 of the 46 points. Who do you hate for the other 39 points? Last year.



What did you think of his play last week? He saw a lot of time Vs some very athletic receivers.



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So if players are injured it gives them an excuse to come off of their assignment and give up TD's on 4th down plays? Yep, that makes sense to me. I saw a former BYU defensive player say that Priority #1 for a DB is to stick to his man, you never, ever, ever, ever, leave your man while the QB is behind the line of scrimmage, it is drilled into BYU's db's from day 1 by bronco. I don't need to assume what Povey's assignment is to know this, he comes off his man before the QB was over the line of scrimmage on 4th and 12 or something, it not only converts the 4th down but turns into a TD right before half time, huge momentum swing for Houston. It may have only been 7 points but it was huge. You may defend this guy until the day you die but he is an inferior player and needs to sit the bench for more talented players. If he was inferior athletically but actually assignment sound, I could stomach his play more but he isn't.

I, frankly, didn't see povey out there at all. If he played as many minutes as you say he did, he must have done fine since I didn't see him out there. Normally when he is out there, you see him trailing the play and making tackles after big gains by the opponent. Otherwise, he didn't play as much as you say he did and that is why I didn't see him. Sure saw Leavitt and Daniels and Preator making plays though.

Would somebody start up a "I hate Skye PoVey" thread so Frdbtr can talk to himself and not ruin the other decent threads? Dude you have a misplaced, over baked, conspicuous obsession with PoVey. Get a life.

DeVon wrote:

Somebody help me remember exactly how last year's Houston game went. Seems to me like everything that could bounce their way did (except of course the final score) and that's what kept the game close. I remember just when I thought we were about to blow the game open they ran a kick back, so on and so forth. Didn't they have a pick six, halfback TD pass, a billion missed sacks by Van Noy which resulted in touchdown passes etc. Can't remember all that occurred.

That's right, just quoted myself. Re-watching the '13 Houston game right now, first 3 Houston scores: kick-off return, wildcat QB 70 yard TD pass (you remember, this is the one where their WR pushed Morgan to the ground and there was no call), and pick six on a TERRIBLE Taysom throw. Excuse my arrogance, but they had no business being in a close game with us last year...and we're better this year. I predict a 3 touchdown win this year.

So here's the thing. I read you loud and clear. It's a valid point. Houston caught some unusual breaks. But just last week a Texas blogger wanted to make the point that Taysom Hill couldn't really be expected to do a repeat performance. Statistically, he pointed out, Hill's performance was over 2.3 standard deviations from his own normal performance. Reversion to the mean would surely manifest itself here.



The argument is similar to yours. Houston shouldn't be expected to be able to make a game of it the way they did last year.



But Hill didn't have to run 259 yards for the game to be an even bigger and more painful loss than last year. You could point to Texas' depleted offense and brand new coach as the reason for the outcome (all the major media outlets have bolted themselves to that narrative), but to do so actually overlooks a pretty solid first half of play by Texas.



I think it is simply more accurate to say that Taysom knows Texas the way a Ford F-150 knows how to locate an armadillo on a darkened road outside the Austin city limits.



So it makes you wonder. Are some matchups just more problematic than others? If Taysom has Texas number, does O'Korn have the combination to unlock the BYU secondary?



It's up to that unit, I think, because Houston will have to win in the air. Admittedly they are a different crew than the one that played the game down there last year. These guys are bringing it and if they can deny those redcoug receivers, it's going to be a whole lot of fun. If not, it's going to be a whole lot of drama on the Provo stage.

frdbtr wrote:
I, frankly, didn't see povey out there at all. If he played as many minutes as you say he did, he must have done fine since I didn't see him out there. Normally when he is out there, you see him trailing the play and making tackles after big gains by the opponent. Otherwise, he didn't play as much as you say he did and that is why I didn't see him. Sure saw Leavitt and Daniels and Preator making plays though.

Why don't you watch that great freshman center hike then whack his man instead of waiting to see if the guy you don't like makes a mistake.

nuk13 wrote:

I, frankly, didn't see povey out there at all. If he played as many minutes as you say he did, he must have done fine since I didn't see him out there. Normally when he is out there, you see him trailing the play and making tackles after big gains by the opponent. Otherwise, he didn't play as much as you say he did and that is why I didn't see him. Sure saw Leavitt and Daniels and Preator making plays though.

Why don't you watch that great freshman center hike then whack his man instead of waiting to see if the guy you don't like makes a mistake.

Can you remind me as to what this has to do with anything? I never said anything about karoma(sp?).

Meanwhile, back on the topic of this thread, I overheard this conversation between the UH coach Tony Levine and Coach Strong, about how to stop Taysom Hill:

Levine: How would you beat him?

Strong: With a stick, while he slept. But on the field, with the football? That man is unbeatable.

frdbtr wrote:
I, frankly, didn't see povey out there at all. If he played as many minutes as you say he did, he must have done fine since I didn't see him out there. Normally when he is out there, you see him trailing the play and making tackles after big gains by the opponent. Otherwise, he didn't play as much as you say he did and that is why I didn't see him. Sure saw Leavitt and Daniels and Preator making plays though.

Maybe you ought to go watch the game and familiarize yourself with what he is doing this year. It could help you realize that last year was last year - sometimes things change - now we have this year. PoVey has played well in both games this season. DVR each game. Go back and watch it with pause and rewind focusing only on PoVey. Note the good and bad. Could be an eye opener for you.



BTW - man coverage is way different than zone coverage and BYU rarely played man coverage. In zone coverage, you cover a zone and in certain situations the safety might be the guy that should pick up a receiver that exited the zone making it look like a corner blew coverage. But the coaches know. And I assure you they do not play a bad player with a good player on the bench when their livelihood depends on winning.



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