Favored in Austin

Don't look now, but we're now 1-1.5 point favorites over Texas Saturday:



http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=18&seasonYear=2014&seasonType=2&weekNumber=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/offshore/line-movement/brigham-young-@-texas-austin.cfm/date/9-06-14/time/1930" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



We'd better get this one now!

I have changed my prediction in the Prediction Game from a 27-13 win to a 38-10 win.



I don't think Texas is going to do anything offensively. I think BYU gets after them early and even gets a late score.

SpiffCoug wrote:
I have changed my prediction in the Prediction Game from a 27-13 win to a 38-10 win.



I don't think Texas is going to do anything offensively. I think BYU gets after them early and even gets a late score.

Pessimist.



56 - 6

35 - 0 and UT fires their OC.



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38-32. Wait. That is my pant size.



BYU 7 Texas 6.



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If Hill throws for 300 yards and runs for 100 yards, the whuppin will be worse than last year in Provo. But I expect UT's defense will be better than last year...and I expect BYU's offense will be better than last year too. It's at Texas, so give Texas 7 to start the game. I think we'll see a similar score as last year, about 40 to 20.

I'm sticking with my previous prediction 17-10 BYU. I don't care who you played, if you hold someone to 94 total yards in a game, you have a very good defense. I heard another stat that the longest play they gave up was 8 yards. Texas' defense is Legit. If BYU gets over 20pts against them, we should be really happy with that performance.

Given BYU's red (blue) zone prowess against UConn I'm cautiously optimistic about this game. But, Texas wants some serious payback, and the tables have done a 180 since last year when Texas was a touchdown favorite. I don't put much stock in the oddsmakers with all the variables of these two teams currently.



Will be a fun game.

Texas 13 to 10. Their defense is legit. They gained more yards on North Texas passes than North Texas did.



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Before we get too carried away, you have to realize that Vegas odds are not dependent on who they think will win the game, but rather on how the house keeps the betting balanced, so they come out even or slightly ahead. With the injury and suspension news that keeps coming out of Austin, it is likely a lot of gamblers started putting their money on BYU as 7 point underdogs to cover the spread. As the the betting gets more and more one sided in BYUs favor, the Casinos shift the line to lure more people into betting on a Texas. If a ton of bets were placed on Texas today and made the betting imbalanced again, then the line would shift back into favoring Texas. I usually think the Vegas odds are pretty honest when they are first released, but after awhile they're just responding to the bettors.

BYULV wrote:
Before we get too carried away, you have to realize that Vegas odds are not dependent on who they think will win the game, but rather on how the house keeps the betting balanced, so they come out even or slightly ahead. With the injury and suspension news that keeps coming out of Austin, it is likely a lot of gamblers started putting their money on BYU as 7 point underdogs to cover the spread. As the the betting gets more and more one sided in BYUs favor, the Casinos shift the line to lure more people into betting on a Texas. If a ton of bets were placed on Texas today and made the betting imbalanced again, then the line would shift back into favoring Texas. I usually think the Vegas odds are pretty honest when they are first released, but after awhile they're just responding to the bettors.

True but the line adjusts as new info comes out, such having two starting tackles suspended.

24-20 BYU with the win.

I am usually right with the crowd on the pulse of the team in W's and L's, but I still think there is a chance, but I still see Texas coming out on top. Boy I really am shocked at the optimism here. All of KSL sports gurus picked BYU also.



As I said, I must be out of tune. I know they are down 3 starting OL, 1 QB and 1 WR, but I believe they are that deep. I did venture on over to Scout.com and check the last 2 years of recruiting for Texas. I was actually surprised that they only had 1 5-star recruit in each of those years. That with 7 and 9 4-star recruits respectfully, but I was expecting to see more like 3-5 5-star players like you see with Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, etc.

BYULV wrote:
Before we get too carried away, you have to realize that Vegas odds are not dependent on who they think will win the game, but rather on how the house keeps the betting balanced, so they come out even or slightly ahead. With the injury and suspension news that keeps coming out of Austin, it is likely a lot of gamblers started putting their money on BYU as 7 point underdogs to cover the spread. As the the betting gets more and more one sided in BYUs favor, the Casinos shift the line to lure more people into betting on a Texas. If a ton of bets were placed on Texas today and made the betting imbalanced again, then the line would shift back into favoring Texas. I usually think the Vegas odds are pretty honest when they are first released, but after awhile they're just responding to the bettors.

As such, in a way it represents the collective knowledge of all the bettors. It's like an opinion poll, but better because there are consequences to being wrong and rewards to being right. At the very least, we can say that a lot of people think we're going to win.



Of course, how much that collective knowledge is actually worth is a different question. ;)

The closer this game gets, the more I think it's going to be a dog fight. Their defense will play our offense tough, and Taysom won't be able to run all over them. I do think, however, that Taysom will have a good day passing the ball and that's what will give us the win. I see us taking a two-score victory here.

BYULV wrote:
Before we get too carried away, you have to realize that Vegas odds are not dependent on who they think will win the game, but rather on how the house keeps the betting balanced, so they come out even or slightly ahead. With the injury and suspension news that keeps coming out of Austin, it is likely a lot of gamblers started putting their money on BYU as 7 point underdogs to cover the spread. As the the betting gets more and more one sided in BYUs favor, the Casinos shift the line to lure more people into betting on a Texas. If a ton of bets were placed on Texas today and made the betting imbalanced again, then the line would shift back into favoring Texas. I usually think the Vegas odds are pretty honest when they are first released, but after awhile they're just responding to the bettors.

It's likely that you may see some money come in on Texas by those that bet BYU early. It's possible to win money by betting on both teams when the line swings this much.



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I like these stats



BYU Leaders

Passing: Hill - 28-36, 308 yds, 3 tds

Rushing: Hill - 12 car, 97 yds, 2 tds

Receiving: Mathews - 5 rec, 62 yds, 1 td





Texas Leaders

Passing: Ash - 19-34, 190 yds, 1 td

Rushing: Gray - 16 car, 82 yds, 0 tds

Receiving: Harris - 7 rec, 110 yds, 1 td

My bold prediction - BYU 13, Texas 10. Physical.

EM_Puma wrote:
I am usually right with the crowd on the pulse of the team in W's and L's, but I still think there is a chance, but I still see Texas coming out on top. Boy I really am shocked at the optimism here. All of KSL sports gurus picked BYU also.



As I said, I must be out of tune. I know they are down 3 starting OL, 1 QB and 1 WR, but I believe they are that deep. I did venture on over to Scout.com and check the last 2 years of recruiting for Texas. I was actually surprised that they only had 1 5-star recruit in each of those years. That with 7 and 9 4-star recruits respectfully, but I was expecting to see more like 3-5 5-star players like you see with Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, etc.

I think I'm one of the very few who was confident in a W before they lost Ash, the center, and everyone else. Now I have no doubt we win.



UT is losing a lot of talent to in-state schools these days. A&M is a great program again and so is Baylor. They don't have a stranglehold like they used to and recruits know trends--and UT is not trending in the right direction over the last few seasons.