Week 2 Math - Texas Body Count

The math about comings and goings between week 1 and week 2 in Provo and in Austin are encouraging. Factor in offseason math and it gets even better.



I lost track of the offseason. We lost a few to transfers, etc. Texas booted a bunch.



Week 1 Vs 2 Austin

Ash out - The new starter was a little experienced back-up and there is then a true freshman behind the new starter.



Senior Center - out. Inexperienced back-up.



Tight End - I read that one is out injured. Not sure if this is old news or a recent injury.



I read that RB/Slot Daje and a safety will not be back yet - as was rumored.



So Minus 2 Key Players with no additions.



Provo

Jordan Johnson

Rob Daniel

J Swag

D Blackmon

Nose Tackle - M Johnson

I read that another DL is back from either injury or academics - was it Taele?

Two kick-off guys who can kick deep - 1 had been out with a sore back - another is a recent RM

Langi likely to be recovered from sore knee



Ryker Matthews remains out - academics and Kurtz - still injured, but that is old news. A 3rd string RB got a concussion.



So Plus 8 or so in Provo

Did I miss anyone?



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Texas' starting QB is an RS SO I believe.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Texas' starting QB is an RS SO I believe.

He is. And the next QB in line after him, is a highly touted freshman. That is what I said. I will go make that clearer - poorly worded.



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Here's the math that I know. You don't beat a Bronco coached team by doing only one thing well. You can't just run the ball well on BYU or you can't just throw the ball for a ton of yards on BYU. You have to throw the ball efficiently.



Since 2005, BYU has given up 300 yards passing against 17 teams. BYU is 8-9 (.471) in those games. (BYU is 33-13 .717 when throwing for 300.)



BYU has given up 150 yards rushing against 30 teams. BYU is 15-15 (.500) in those games. In those games, the opponents rushed for 5.0 ypc 13 times too. (BYU is 51-9 .850 when rushing for 150.)

From the tiny bit of film I saw on my tiny little phone, the new Texas QB actually seems reasonably accurate throwing when he has time to throw.



Hopefully we can rush those throws. I did not see enough to judge his decision making under pressure. I suspect that there in lies the opportunity for BYU.



I think Texas will run for over 150. I hope they are limited in the passing game.



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It turns out Texas reinstated a senior offensive tackle Monday after a 1-game suspension. That would have made Texas just a minus net compared to last week. Rumor now is that he has since been dismissed from the team along with a junior offensive tackle. Not sure if the junior played last week. Either way, Texas is still at least minus 2 compared to last week and minus 4 compared to what they expected to have vs BYU.



BYU is still +8 vs last week.



This may be enough adversity to offset superior talent and home field advantages.



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So, on offense



BYU puts 11 players on the field at a time like everyone else. JSwag and Blackmon were not there last week. So we will be better at 20% of those spots.



On defense, JJ, Rob, MJ, another DL, and Langi were not there. Better at 40-50% of the positions or at least deeper.



Throw in a kickoff man on Special Teams.



Texas is 3 of 11 worse than last week on offense and unchanged on defense.



The BYU defense Vs the Texas offense is the big winner here with the consolation prize going to the BYU offense and kickoff teams. No good news for Texas.



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SpiffCoug wrote:
Texas' starting QB is an RS SO I believe.

He's a true soph. Should've redshirted.



Also, the reinstated tackle is likely never to play for Texas again despite what the Texas media machine is saying. The news broke faster than they wanted and are trying to control the message. Reports are that he hasn't been at practice, the pit, or even on school grounds. If it were only a one game suspension then he would still be practicing. Perhaps Charlie had a change of heart, but I doubt it.

Practice reports for Swoopes haven't been too positive. Against the scout team...

Hookem wrote:
Practice reports for Swoopes haven't been too positive. Against the scout team...

He's a big, athletic dude, though. If we get to him on a corner blitz, he might just take our DB for a piggyback ride.

Schmoe wrote:

Practice reports for Swoopes haven't been too positive. Against the scout team...

He's a big, athletic dude, though. If we get to him on a corner blitz, he might just take our DB for a piggyback ride.

True. But Kaufusi against a second/third string 280 lb tackle? That's scary...



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Is This A set-up. They hid and saved Swoops for BYU?

;)



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Mars wrote:

Practice reports for Swoopes haven't been too positive. Against the scout team...

Didn't he throw for about 270 and 3 TDs in his last scrimmage?



He may be a future Texas tight end, but he might also be more than serviceable at QB.

Did you watch the spring game, or are you going on stats alone?



You don't have to take my word for it. But Google the spring game and you'll find multiple reports warning not to be fooled by his stats.

Cougarbib wrote:
Is This A set-up. They hid and saved Swoops for BYU?

;)



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I sure hope so, my friend. He may be a game-day quarterback who doesn't practice well. Who knows?



We'll find out in two days...

I want to make one thing clear.



I'm not being critical of Swoopes for no reason. I'm not trying to convince you guys that he's not any good, when in actuality I expect him to come out slinging the ball around like a fifth year senior. Trust me no one would be more surprised than me if he did.



I like Swoopes. He's a great kid, who works hard and deserves to have success. However, he's struggled since he's graduated high school and started at Texas at the QB position. I may have misspoken about him being a TE, he may very well be a great QB, but so far his overall body of work from practices, 7on7's, etc begs to differ.



I hope he proves me wrong.