My Taysom Expectations

Going back to 1978, Juniors have played in 171 games at BYU. On a per game basis the average JR QB's game has looked something like this:

20.5 completions

33.4 attempts

272.1 yards

2 TDs

1.2 INTs

142.71 PER

1.9 sacked

6 rush attempts

2.5 yards per carry



Extrapolate that out over a 12 game regular season and we're looking at an expected season of: 246 of 401 for 3,265 yards with 24 TDs 14 INTs and 61.5% complete.



JRs included in this compilation include: Riley Nelson, Max Hall, John Beck, Matt Berry, Brett Engemann, Charlie Peterson, Brandon Doman, Kevin Feterik, Paul Shoemaker, Steve Sarkisian, John Walsh, Tom Young, Steve Clements, Ty Detmer, Sean Covey, Bob Jensen, Robbie Bosco, Steve Young, Jim McMahon, Marc Wilson.

So that's what I'm expecting of Taysom for him to have what I consider to be an average season.

Well, Hill will likely out rush all those QBs combined. If he can throw for 3000 yards and 30 TDs, he'll be a Heisman candidate.

golong wrote:
Well, Hill will likely out rush all those QBs combined. If he can throw for 3000 yards and 30 TDs, he'll be a Heisman candidate.

Candidate? 3000 yards throwing and 30 TDs plus 1000 yards rushing and a dozen or so ground scores is a verifiable winner.

I was about to say what golong said regarding rushing.



He needs to at least turn into an average passer. If he cannot pass more effectively we will be in big trouble. Any DC will see to stack the box, contain the edges and focus on stopping the run (QB and RB).........which will be more effective this year after a full year of watching TH. This would be a very boring and painful experience.



If TH can pass he will be an animal as that will force the defense to play them straight up and not allow the contain.



I personally expect TH to get better passing the ball, but given new WR's it may take a few games. I would expect more success passing and on the other hand a bit less success running.



My guess is TH can become a great QB running and average passing QB, thus solid overall but will have some bad throws. My fear is if we are in a situation where he is forced to throw (aka we are down or we are in an end of a game situation), I am not sure how effective he can be. Would we be happy with a BYU version of Tim Tebow (keep in mind we don't have the surrounding cast of Tebow)?



Lastly, I will try to stay away from the lows and highs with TH. Some game he may be great others he may look pedestrian and we should stay away from anointing him the new Steve Young or branding him as the next Riley Nelson.

I think Spiff has too much free time on his hands.

I think another thing to point out about Taysom's passing ability is who he's throwing to. Last year it was Hoffman and that was it. MM had a great game vs USU and BSU but he was MIA in every other game. After him there was nothing. I don't completely blame TH for his 2013 struggles because we didn't have the personnel--heck it's amazing we even scored vs UW and UND. This year we may actually have weapons to throw to. And that's a luxury Taysom hasn't yet had whenever he drops back to pass...

My expectations are to exceed last years performance. If he is to do that, he needs to bring up the bottom games. He will have an improved Oline. He has more Receiver threats. He has as good a RB group, etc. And a second year of a newly installed O. A lot fewer reasons to not to well.

After the first several poor games PER, Taysom improved. His completion after the first several games were 60%, iirc. Notwithsatnding the friday scrimmage, I beleive that he will be improved, just not Heisman level--which is good bc BYU more likely retains him for his Sr year. So, 2 years to enjoy.

Total yards for Taysom should stack up to the averages. The mix will be different - more rushing and less passing. His PER should meet the average. I fear the PER will fall a little short. His rushing should make up for that.



I love data. So Spiff................



If someone were to take 2013 and cross out those first few games when we had many wanting to see what Ammon O could do, when Hill was missing wide open receivers badly, and run stats and PER from that point, that is a good baseline for how he finished 2013. The 2014 schedule is no harder than those 8 or so games on average and probably easier, so Hill should perform at that level or higher even if he and his supporting cast are not one bit better. I will be very disappointed if he does not hit those numbers. Juniors are better than they were as sophomores in nearly all cases, so it will take a modest improvement over that baseline, to meet my expectations. I will not accept a PER below 135 average from Hill without starting to call for a look see at Stewart, unless Hill is making up for it with Texas like rushing numbers.



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I tooled around last year, trying to incorporate QBs runs with the PER formula,. I think I counted all rushes as attempts and any negative yard run as an incompletion and fumbles as INTs.



Taysom's final 10 games of 2013:

196 of 325 for 2,374 yards with 18 TDs 11 INTs 133.17 PER and 60.3%.



That's pretty close to the standard. And as good as that Taysom was, I really want the Taysom we saw from Week 4 through Week 8 before Mitch Matthews went down.



During that five game stretch he was 106 of 162 for 1,455 yards with 11 TDs 5 INTs 157.11 PER 65.4%.



If we get THAT Taysom, we won't lose. And during that stretch he was considerably better than those teams usually gave up.



Taysom was 16.3 PER points better than Middle Tennesse's PER Defense.

Taysom was 40.3 PER points better than Utah State's PER Defense.

Taysom was 27.9 PER points better than Georgia Tech's PER Defense.

Taysom was 46.5 PER points better than Houston's PER Defense.

Taysom was 32.7 PER points better than Boise State's PER Defense.



He was 13.03% better than average vs MTSU, 36.46% better than average vs USU, 21.36% better than average vs GT, 40.31% better than average vs Houston and 25.79% better than average vs Boise St.

Spiff



it was not clear whether those PER numbers were run adjusted or straight PER. If straight PER, those are pretty impressive numbers in that 5 game stretch you highlighted, and the opponents in that stretch are roughly comparable to the 2014 opponents.



if Hill hits a pure PER over 150, I will be ecstatic. Even a run adjusted PER of 157 would meet or exceed my expectations.



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Cougarbib wrote:
Spiff



it was not clear whether those PER numbers were run adjusted or straight PER. If straight PER, those are pretty impressive numbers in that 5 game stretch you highlighted, and the opponents in that stretch are roughly comparable to the 2014 opponents.



if Hill hits a pure PER over 150, I will be ecstatic. Even a run adjusted PER of 157 would meet or exceed my expectations.



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Straight PER. And I'll call my shot, if Taysom hits 150 PER in each and every game, BYU will finish with a 13-0 record and an extremely high ranking (top 3?)