How Would Wins Change Expectations?

Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

1) I'd call 9 wins a success

2) 4 or more is a disappointment

3) After a 3-0 start, 11 wins would be successful--the only loss I would accept after that is UCF or Boise, but not both.

4) 2 or more losses would be a disappointment.

Ditto Sno.

But, if BYU can beat UT and a better than anticipated Houston, the only acceptable loss to me is UCF. They are a good team. My only hope is that a new QB holds them back.

snoscythe wrote:
Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

I'm with Bronco, I think 10+ is a success.

4 or more losses is a disappointment

If the team starts 3-0 1 more loss would make it successful (UCF is the only loss at that point that wouldn't really disappoint me)

4 losses after 3-0 would be a disappointment.



I like the premise of your question but frankly, wins don't raise expectations, they raise excitement. the longer the team stays undefeated the more excitement you will see from the fanbase. The early losses (especially over the last couple of years) have taken all the wind out of the fan excitement IMO and have made us all really negative.

1. 10

2. 4

3. 10

4. 4



I'm nervous about the Texas, Houston, UCF, BSU, and Cal games. I'm assuming we win the rest. Win 2 of my nerve games I'm good. Win only 1 or less and it is average at best which would be disappointing.



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snoscythe wrote:
Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

I see this as a program-making season since so much is changing in the college football landscape. This can't be another lose all the tough games but one seasons. BYU HAS to make national noise and it starts now. So my expectations are higher than normal in 2014.



1) 10 wins

2) 3 losses

3) 11 wins

4) 2 losses--once UT is out of the way then I expect them to only lose one more game all year

This highlights why some BYU fans have unrealistic expectations. Realistic expectations for any team should be based on their own capabilities and how those Match up Vs the teams on the schedule.



The changing college landscape has nothing to do with that.



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If you take ECON 110, you learned the phrase "All other things held equal" after hearing it repeated to death.



That applies here, too.



If BYU starts 3-0, I would feel like they were better than I initially expected, unless Texas, Houston, and UCONN all start out 0-3. If Taysom Hill goes down in the 4th qtr week 3. Conversely, if those teams are all 2-1 and UCF, USU, and BSU are 0-3. Special Season. 12-0.



I start out expecting 9-3 as meeting expectations. 10-2 being sweet. 8-4 being tolerable, but disappointing.



If we start 3-0, all other things held equal, adjust my initial expectations by 1 game because I expect 2-1.



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1 - 10 (not including a bowl game)

2 - 3

3 - 11

4 - 2

I'm already expecting 12-0 (like I do every August). But this year I believe it is actually attainable. If BYU can get past Texas, then I believe that anything short of 12-0 is a disappointment, given the talent of the team, the manageable schedule, and everything that is on the line right now in CFB. This year the team needs to make a huge splash.

Y 4 Ever wrote:
I'm already expecting 12-0 (like I do every August). But this year I believe it is actually attainable. If BYU can get past Texas, then I believe that anything short of 12-0 is a disappointment, given the talent of the team, the manageable schedule, and everything that is on the line right now in CFB. This year the team needs to make a huge splash.

But, if they lose to Texas and then lose a couple more, that is somehow less disappointing?



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Cougarbib wrote:

I'm already expecting 12-0 (like I do every August). But this year I believe it is actually attainable. If BYU can get past Texas, then I believe that anything short of 12-0 is a disappointment, given the talent of the team, the manageable schedule, and everything that is on the line right now in CFB. This year the team needs to make a huge splash.

But, if they lose to Texas and then lose a couple more, that is somehow less disappointing?



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I don't follow. Do you mean, is 9-3 less disappointing than 11-1? that's a silly question. The more losses, the higher the level of disappointment. I thought that would be obvious.

snoscythe wrote:
Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

1) 10 wins (one of them being a bowl win) is the bare minimum of acceptability. Anything less and the program has taken a giant step back. 2014 is not a strong schedule, and with a few losses we will be playing some AAC scrub team in our bowl.



2) 3 regular season losses would be a major disappointment. I expect us to win our bowl game no matter what unless we go undefeated and get a better bowl invite.



3) All of the rest of them, except going .500 against Boise and UCF.



4) 3 would still be my number. There are no 50/50 games on our 2014 schedule. BYU should be favored in every single game they play this year, with the possible exception of Cal, and UCF (depending on how their seasons play out).

Y 4 Ever wrote:

Y 4 Ever wrote:
I'm already expecting 12-0 (like I do every August). But this year I believe it is actually attainable. If BYU can get past Texas, then I believe that anything short of 12-0 is a disappointment, given the talent of the team, the manageable schedule, and everything that is on the line right now in CFB. This year the team needs to make a huge splash.

But, if they lose to Texas and then lose a couple more, that is somehow less disappointing?



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I don't follow. Do you mean, is 9-3 less disappointing than 11-1? that's a silly question. The more losses, the higher the level of disappointment. I thought that would be obvious.

In your post, you said, "if BYU can get past Texas, anything short of 12-0 will be disappointing.". So, if BYU can't get past Texas, will anything less than 12-0 be disappointing? And if yes, then what does getting past Texas have to do with it?



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BlueIsBetter wrote:

Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

1) 10 wins (one of them being a bowl win) is the bare minimum of acceptability. Anything less and the program has taken a giant step back. 2014 is not a strong schedule, and with a few losses we will be playing some AAC scrub team in our bowl.



2) 3 regular season losses would be a major disappointment. I expect us to win our bowl game no matter what unless we go undefeated and get a better bowl invite.



3) All of the rest of them, except going .500 against Boise and UCF.



4) 3 would still be my number. There are no 50/50 games on our 2014 schedule. BYU should be favored in every single game they play this year, with the possible exception of Cal, and UCF (depending on how their seasons play out).

Cal? Really? BTW - several independent rankings have listed 2 to 5 of our opponents as ranked higher. There are at least 2 games where Las Vegas will have BYU as the dog and at least 5 where it will be a 7 point or less spread.



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This is what Steve Young said:



I think the expectations -- and Bronco’s expectations -- are to threaten the Top 10 every year or the Top 25 at least. That’s where we want to be. We have to have that kind of mindset because we are independent. There are big wins that need to come every fall and we have to develop the mindset that we can do that. My expectations personally are very high.”



Looks like Steve expects a 1 or 2 loss season as well. With 3 there's no chance we sniff the top 25 with this schedule.

Anything less than perfection will be a disappointment. ;)



10 wins will be a huge success in my book

4 losses will be a disappointment

At 3 - 0, I'd still peg 10 wins as success (it's a long season)

At 3 - 0, I'd still peg 4 losses as a disappointment



Now, what I expect us to do is 9 - 3.

BlueIsBetter wrote:

Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

1) 10 wins (one of them being a bowl win) is the bare minimum of acceptability. Anything less and the program has taken a giant step back. 2014 is not a strong schedule, and with a few losses we will be playing some AAC scrub team in our bowl.



2) 3 regular season losses would be a major disappointment. I expect us to win our bowl game no matter what unless we go undefeated and get a better bowl invite.



3) All of the rest of them, except going .500 against Boise and UCF.



4) 3 would still be my number. There are no 50/50 games on our 2014 schedule. BYU should be favored in every single game they play this year, with the possible exception of Cal, and UCF (depending on how their seasons play out).

1. I don't this schedule is as easy as you think it will be. Winning 9 games is NOT a "giant step" backwards. I could see that argument made if they only won 7 games. We're going to be playing some scrub AAC team in the bowl regardless of our recrod.



2. How could three losses be a "major disappointment"? Texas is a top 25 team. UCF finished in the Top 10 last year. Boise is a perennial Top 25 team. All three of those games are on the road. And all three teams lost the last time they played BYU - two of them were soundly beaten by BYU (Texas & Boise) and the third lost to an awful BYU team who's QB had a PER less than 75 and completed fewer than 1/2 its passes. All three teams have likely circled BYU and will be be ready.



3. Can't argue with your third point.



4. We have plenty of 50/50 games. Houston returns a ton of starters, they played us extremely close last year. Could go either way. Texas could go either way. UCF could go either way. Boise could go either way. Your fourth point is way off base. You think that BYU will be favored on the road to Texas but possibly not be favored vs Cal? This whole point is full of non-factually based opinions.

SpiffCoug wrote:

snoscythe wrote:
Quick little mental exercise for all of you.



Here is the 2014 schedule:

@UCONN

@Texas

Houston

Virginia

USU

@UCF

UNR

@BSU

@MTSU

UNLV

SavSt

@Cal



Answer these four questions:



1) How many wins would it take for you to call the 2014 football season successful?



2) How many losses would it take for you to call the 2014 football season a disappointment?



3) Now, if the team starts 3-0, how many wins would it take to call the season successful?



4) Again, starting 3-0, how many losses would it take to call the season a disappointment?

1) 10 wins (one of them being a bowl win) is the bare minimum of acceptability. Anything less and the program has taken a giant step back. 2014 is not a strong schedule, and with a few losses we will be playing some AAC scrub team in our bowl.



2) 3 regular season losses would be a major disappointment. I expect us to win our bowl game no matter what unless we go undefeated and get a better bowl invite.



3) All of the rest of them, except going .500 against Boise and UCF.



4) 3 would still be my number. There are no 50/50 games on our 2014 schedule. BYU should be favored in every single game they play this year, with the possible exception of Cal, and UCF (depending on how their seasons play out).

1. I don't this schedule is as easy as you think it will be. Winning 9 games is NOT a "giant step" backwards. I could see that argument made if they only won 7 games. We're going to be playing some scrub AAC team in the bowl regardless of our recrod.



2. How could three losses be a "major disappointment"? Texas is a top 25 team. UCF finished in the Top 10 last year. Boise is a perennial Top 25 team. All three of those games are on the road. And all three teams lost the last time they played BYU - two of them were soundly beaten by BYU (Texas & Boise) and the third lost to an awful BYU team who's QB had a PER less than 75 and completed fewer than 1/2 its passes. All three teams have likely circled BYU and will be be ready.



3. Can't argue with your third point.



4. We have plenty of 50/50 games. Houston returns a ton of starters, they played us extremely close last year. Could go either way. Texas could go either way. UCF could go either way. Boise could go either way. Your fourth point is way off base. You think that BYU will be favored on the road to Texas but possibly not be favored vs Cal? This whole point is full of non-factually based opinions.

We'll see.



Texas is NOT a top 25 team. Sure, they are ranked in the pre-season, but that accounts for nothing on the field. Texas has dismissed a whole plenitude of starters and guys on the two deep from the team. I don't expect them to have their crap in order by week 1, 2, or 3. They will have it together later by the time we play them. New coach, new playbooks, and a lot of new faces. They can still beat BYU, sure, but we shouldn't have too much problem winning. I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas unranked by the end of the year. That game is ours to lose.



"UCF was a top 10 team last year." Key operating words in your sentence are *was* and *last year*. They were very good, but then their quarterback went ahead and got drafted #3 THIS year, and he won't be there.



Houston played us extremely close because we have Robert Anae as OC and he had an anemic offensive line. Both of those things *might* be better this year. THere was HUGE debate on the boards last year about how good Houston really was... I believe that Craig and I won that debate, with Houston losing 4 out of the next 7 games they played.



We'll see. I don't think our schedule is very good. It could be different.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
Houston played us extremely close because we have Robert Anae as OC and he had an anemic offensive line. Both of those things *might* be better this year.

BYU scored 47 points on the road in Houston last year... I think that game was close due to our DEFENSE (which gave up 46), not our offense.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?id=332920248" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;