Phil Steele 2014 Blog

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One of his power sets predict we will go 11-1 this season with the loss to BSU. BSU is the only opponent to make his list. Possible bowl matchup-Cincinnati made the list.

BYU will go somewhere between 9-3 and 12-0 regular season if key players stay healthy and unsuspended. There. I said the S Word.



I wax optimistic this year. The key to our happiness, therefore is whether we win the bowl game which depends quite a bit on who our opponent is. Thus I am not predicting that outcome yet. Ironically, the more regular season games we lose, up to a point, the more likely it is that we win our bowl game.



Say we are at 12-0. We are going to get a great bowl game and a ranked oponent.

We probably lose that bowl game.



Say we are at 11-1. See above, with only a slightly better chance of winning that bowl game.



Say we are at 10-2. We will get a decent enough bowl opponent and have a 50/50 or better shot.



Say we are at 9-3. We get an average bowl opponent and probably beat them.



Say we are at 8-4. I will be disappointed, but BYU will get a bad bowl opponent and eek out a win.



13-0 gets BYU in the top 4.

12-1 gets BYU in the top 9.

11--2 gets BYU in the top 15.

10-3 gets BYU in the Top 25.

9-4 gets fan sentiment to turn ugly.

8-5 gets someone fired.







Say we are at 10-4. We will get a marginal bowl opponent and beat them.



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14-0 gets BYU the NC

Cougarbib wrote:
BYU will go somewhere between 9-3 and 12-0 regular season if key players stay healthy and unsuspended. There. I said the S Word.



I wax optimistic this year. The key to our happiness, therefore is whether we win the bowl game which depends quite a bit on who our opponent is. Thus I am not predicting that outcome yet. Ironically, the more regular season games we lose, up to a point, the more likely it is that we win our bowl game.



Say we are at 12-0. We are going to get a great bowl game and a ranked oponent.

We probably lose that bowl game.



Say we are at 11-1. See above, with only a slightly better chance of winning that bowl game.



Say we are at 10-2. We will get a decent enough bowl opponent and have a 50/50 or better shot.



Say we are at 9-3. We get an average bowl opponent and probably beat them.



Say we are at 8-4. I will be disappointed, but BYU will get a bad bowl opponent and eek out a win.



13-0 gets BYU in the top 4.

12-1 gets BYU in the top 9.

11--2 gets BYU in the top 15.

10-3 gets BYU in the Top 25.

9-4 gets fan sentiment to turn ugly.

8-5 gets someone fired.







Say we are at 10-4. We will get a marginal bowl opponent and beat them.



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I think our bowl game is set, unless we go BCS or aren't eligible.

There's a slim chance that ESPN moves us to another bowl for a big matchup. I don't expect it. I think we will play Cincinnati which would be a good game.

scott715 wrote:
There's a slim chance that ESPN moves us to another bowl for a big matchup. I don't expect it. I think we will play Cincinnati which would be a good game.

Not only would Cincy be a good game, but it would be a great kickstart to our '15-16 series with the Bearcats. It would make those games more exciting and meaningful.

BYULV wrote:

BYU will go somewhere between 9-3 and 12-0 regular season if key players stay healthy and unsuspended. There. I said the S Word.



I wax optimistic this year. The key to our happiness, therefore is whether we win the bowl game which depends quite a bit on who our opponent is. Thus I am not predicting that outcome yet. Ironically, the more regular season games we lose, up to a point, the more likely it is that we win our bowl game.



Say we are at 12-0. We are going to get a great bowl game and a ranked oponent.

We probably lose that bowl game.



Say we are at 11-1. See above, with only a slightly better chance of winning that bowl game.



Say we are at 10-2. We will get a decent enough bowl opponent and have a 50/50 or better shot.



Say we are at 9-3. We get an average bowl opponent and probably beat them.



Say we are at 8-4. I will be disappointed, but BYU will get a bad bowl opponent and eek out a win.



13-0 gets BYU in the top 4.

12-1 gets BYU in the top 9.

11--2 gets BYU in the top 15.

10-3 gets BYU in the Top 25.

9-4 gets fan sentiment to turn ugly.

8-5 gets someone fired.







Say we are at 10-4. We will get a marginal bowl opponent and beat them.



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I think our bowl game is set, unless we go BCS or aren't eligible.

The Bowl is set. The opponent is not as I understand it - Conference has flexibility to move teams around its various bowls a bit.



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We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



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Gunk wrote:
We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



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Why is that any different than the MWC? We lose one and we get LV Bowl, then it goes downhill from there to a lesser bowl. With Independence at least we down move down the bowl list with each loss and possibly get left out of a Noel with a 6-6 season.

BYULV wrote:

We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



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Why is that any different than the MWC? We lose one and we get LV Bowl, then it goes downhill from there to a lesser bowl. With Independence at least we down move down the bowl list with each loss and possibly get left out of a Noel with a 6-6 season.

I miss the Las Vegas Bowl.

I think fans like to play for something like a conference championship and the LV bowl as champion. Lose a couple and the Miami bowl becomes a virtual lock. Then the games done have much meaning for them.



My goal is to get ranked. Every game has meaning. Ten win season is next. Then a bowl game. Of course NC and a P5 bowl are at the top of the list, but the chances are pretty slim. Ranking is very doable.

scott715 wrote:
I think fans like to play for something like a conference championship and the LV bowl as champion. Lose a couple and the Miami bowl becomes a virtual lock. Then the games done have much meaning for them.



My goal is to get ranked. Every game has meaning. Ten win season is next. Then a bowl game. Of course NC and a P5 bowl are at the top of the list, but the chances are pretty slim. Ranking is very doable.

if we get AAC#1 in the Miami Beach Bowl, that will be similar in difficulty to a typical Las Vegas Bowl from the past. Our recent Bowl games have been hit and miss. Last year and SDSU were solid opponents and interesting games. Tulsa. Ok. They were better than their record considering who they lost to. UTEP - not a good match-up.



I mainly miss the Las Vegas Bowl because it gave us opportunity to punk the PAC, and it was convenient to the fanbase.



I just hope we do not get AAC#4.



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Cougarbib wrote:

Gunk wrote:
We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



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Why is that any different than the MWC? We lose one and we get LV Bowl, then it goes downhill from there to a lesser bowl. With Independence at least we down move down the bowl list with each loss and possibly get left out of a Noel with a 6-6 season.

I miss the Las Vegas Bowl.

Vegas Bowl > Any bowl we've played as an independent



As an independent, once we lose a game there is no fight left. Just get to 7 wins and it's off to Miami. In the MWC, you still had to fight or at least there was interest in the fight. The MWC champion got to go to the bowl. The others got the bowl crumbs.



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Gunk wrote:

BYULV wrote:

We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Why is that any different than the MWC? We lose one and we get LV Bowl, then it goes downhill from there to a lesser bowl. With Independence at least we down move down the bowl list with each loss and possibly get left out of a Noel with a 6-6 season.

I miss the Las Vegas Bowl.

Vegas Bowl > Any bowl we've played as an independent



As an independent, once we lose a game there is no fight left. Just get to 7 wins and it's off to Miami. In the MWC, you still had to fight or at least there was interest in the fight. The MWC champion got to go to the bowl. The others got the bowl crumbs.



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Even though I live in Vegas, I would much rather go to a bowl in San Diego or San Francisco, or even Florida. It's more intriguing and different and nicer surroundings. And you can park on asphalt instead of dirt.

Yes, but how many fans will travel to Miami? 25% of the fans that would have traveled to Vegas? LV Bowl was far better for the team bc of large fan turnout.

BYULV wrote:

Cougarbib wrote:

Gunk wrote:
We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Why is that any different than the MWC? We lose one and we get LV Bowl, then it goes downhill from there to a lesser bowl. With Independence at least we down move down the bowl list with each loss and possibly get left out of a Noel with a 6-6 season.

I miss the Las Vegas Bowl.

Vegas Bowl > Any bowl we've played as an independent



As an independent, once we lose a game there is no fight left. Just get to 7 wins and it's off to Miami. In the MWC, you still had to fight or at least there was interest in the fight. The MWC champion got to go to the bowl. The others got the bowl crumbs.



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Even though I live in Vegas, I would much rather go to a bowl in San Diego or San Francisco, or even Florida. It's more intriguing and different and nicer surroundings. And you can park on asphalt instead of dirt.

I attended every BYU visit to the Las Vegas bowl and loved it every time.

hawkwing wrote:

Gunk wrote:

BYULV wrote:

We lose one game and we are headed to our predetermined bowl. We go undefeated and maybe we get in another bowl. This is the problem with being an independent.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Why is that any different than the MWC? We lose one and we get LV Bowl, then it goes downhill from there to a lesser bowl. With Independence at least we down move down the bowl list with each loss and possibly get left out of a Noel with a 6-6 season.

I miss the Las Vegas Bowl.

Vegas Bowl > Any bowl we've played as an independent



As an independent, once we lose a game there is no fight left. Just get to 7 wins and it's off to Miami. In the MWC, you still had to fight or at least there was interest in the fight. The MWC champion got to go to the bowl. The others got the bowl crumbs.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Even though I live in Vegas, I would much rather go to a bowl in San Diego or San Francisco, or even Florida. It's more intriguing and different and nicer surroundings. And you can park on asphalt instead of dirt.

I attended every BYU visit to the Las Vegas bowl and loved it every time.

I was right there shivering cold along with you for most of them. I missed the CAL loss. I was right behind the upright when that kick got blocked and we snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. I went to a WAC Championship game or two there as well. Very convenient to So. CAL.



I agree with LV about the parking lot. It is also way out in the boonies. The place is old. A few obnoxious UNLV fans come root against BYU. It can get cold.



But, if you look at opponents and match ups in BYU Bowl History:



The Holiday Bowl usually brought a very competitive P5 type of opponent. Remember that The Southwest Conference was big time back then and I believe SMU was in it prior to getting the death penalty for cheating. Indiana. Washington State. Penn State. Michigan. Navy.



Cotton Bowl was the best. New Years Day. Kansas State ranked #15. But we only went once. No tradition. Fiesta Bowl before it got huge. Okie State a time or two. Citrus or Tangerine. Ohio State. Those were good.



Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon. Oregon State. CAL. Arizona. UCLA. Tough to complain, really, although many fans did.



Poinsettia was OK. The UW game last year was a solid opponent. Tulsa was OK. UTEP was pathetic.



When you sum it all up. The Holiday Bowl brought only slightly better opponents, if any better at all, than LV Bowl. One off bowls in the LaVell Era were good. One off bowls lately have been good and bad.

Here are the contracts that I wish BYU had to provide a better approach to the bowl situation.



Tier 1: Finish in the top 4- go to the CFP



Tier 2: Finish in the top-5-12 - eligible for non-CFP New Year's 6 bowl game



(the above two are already in place!)



Tier 3: Finish in the top 5-25 (and not selected for NY6) - eligible for: the Las Vegas Bowl (v. PAc 12); St. Petersburg Bowl (v. ACC); and new Los Angeles/Christmas Bowl (v. PAC 12, with MWC as backup)...no more than twice to any bowl in 6 years.



Tier 4: Eligible for: Poinsettia Bowl or Hawaii Bowl (v. MWC), Armed Forces Bowl or Miami Beach Bowl (v. American) or the Heart of Dallas Bowl (v. Big Ten). No more than twice to any bowl in 6 years.



Thus, BYU would always be playing for a bowl selection, so the team would have something to play for regardless of record or ranking. And, we wouldn't know the bowl destination or the opponent until the end of the season...



The MWC would share the Las Vegas and Los Angeles/Christmas Bowls with us (up to twice per bowl in 6 years) to possibly upgrade their opponent in the Poinsettia and Hawaii Bowls (currently, military and C-USA rotations).



Similarly, the American would share the St. Petersburg Bowl with us (up to twice in 6 years) to possibly upgrade their opponent in the Armed Forces and Miami Beach Bowls (military, C-USA, and Sun Belt rotations).



We could simply convince the Heart of Dallas bowl and the Big Ten that having BYU as a potential opponent >>> C-USA.

Cougs_Rule wrote:
Yes, but how many fans will travel to Miami? 25% of the fans that would have traveled to Vegas? LV Bowl was far better for the team bc of large fan turnout.

West Coast is best!



Traveling to Miami would be an expensive proposition for most BYU fans. Will be curious to see what the turnout is like.



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