Big 12 ADs say no discussions on expansion

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11066269/big-12-ads-say-no-discussions-expansion#comments" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



They sure had a lot to say considering they didn't discuss anything.



Go Cougs!



L Hatton

Louisville, KY

There sure has been a lot of articles and comments on fan boards in regard to Bronco's comments. I've read on the Oklahoma, Iowa State and MWC boards.

What a pair of tools Currie and Luck are in acting like they speak for the entire Big 12. Especially Johnny-Come-Lately Luck, from WVU, just recently added to the conference, saying that no school outside of the current P5 would bring enough revenue to be worthy. As if The Mountaineers had a TV foot print any bigger than their hill-billy state.



I would wager that BYU would bring more viewers to that conference than what six of its current members already individually do. BYU might even be more valuable than eight of the members (any but The Sooners and The Longhorns). How many of the Big 12 programs could manage football independence and produce BYU's level of income? Certainly not WVU or KSU.



BYU will be able to keep up with the cost of new Div IV player benefits requirements, even without a conference. Does anyone believe that WVU or KSU could do that if they were out in the cold as independents? Could TCU, or ISU? Very doubtful. Neither could the Utes without PAC 12 money. The Cougars will also continue to be seen on ESPN beyond the present contract period.



I think the sheer power of economics will bring BYU and Big 12 together. But, that most likely will not happen until the new autonomy rules are established and it becomes apparent that BYU will not only survive as an independent, but will sustain the requirements for Div IV participation. And yes, BYU will still be playing Div IV/P5 teams as an indie, right up until a significant conference inevitably takes the Cougs. Call me Polly Anna, but that's what I believe.



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BOID wrote:



I think the sheer power of economics will bring BYU and Big 12 together. But, that most likely will not happen until the new autonomy rules are established and it becomes apparent that BYU will not only survive as an independent, but will sustain the requirements for Div IV participation. And yes, BYU will still be playing Div IV/P5 teams as an indie, right up until a significant conference inevitably takes the Cougs. Call me Polly Anna, but that's what I believe.



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I would tend to agree with this comment IF it makes sense for the Big 12 economically, there could be outside factors (Sunday issue and uncertainty around how Div IV ends out playing out).



Regarding economics, the Big 12 needs to see that BYU brings in more money than what each individual member makes. The conference splits the pie, if BYU brings in $$$'s but each member now shares a piece of the pie with an extra member BYU must bring more $$$ to the table and it must outweigh what each member makes in the 10 team situations or they make less money on a school by school basis.



Example: the conference makes $100. 10 members would each make $10.



If BYU brings in $5 of new revenue. New conference has $105 by 11 members, that means despite BYU bringing in money the average member now makes $9.55.



That means BYU would need to bring in $10's for break-even.



Obviously these are not real numbers but would the TV contract be expanded to pay more $$$ for BYU? What additional revenues does BYU win and how does BYU pay their own way? Can BYU set an agreement for a smaller piece of the pie that makes more economic sense for the other member schools with various economic hurdles that they need to hit for their pie size to increase.



Short answer is I don't know enough about the current economics to answer these questions, but not sure if BYU brings the revenues needed or if projections add enough $$$'s to make sense. They need to see if they need 12 schools for a conference championship, or if BYU adds to a new TV deal. You are right, if it significantly increases revenues it will happen.....but if that was the case BYU would have already been invited.

There really isn't anything driving the Big 12 to expand now. That's no mystery. Why should they jump just because BYU wants in? I think Bronco's comments were more to get the conversation going that BYU is interested since many of the rumors out there were that BYU had been approached initially and had a list of demands so they are either high-maintenance or aren't too keen on the idea. I don't think Bronco used this as his "door-approach" if you will.

Fido wrote:
There really isn't anything driving the Big 12 to expand now. That's no mystery. Why should they jump just because BYU wants in? I think Bronco's comments were more to get the conversation going that BYU is interested since many of the rumors out there were that BYU had been approached initially and had a list of demands so they are either high-maintenance or aren't too keen on the idea. I don't think Bronco used this as his "door-approach" if you will.

Amen.



As Chip Brown stated on BYU Sports Nation yesterday stated, nothing for certain will happen before the new rules are unfolded in August and everyone sees how that changes things.



The only way BYU gets even a "sniff" from the Big 12:

1. Big 12 is forced by network influences. ESPN basically paid for the Big 12 to stay together by giving Texas a huge wad of cash beyond their market value to stay. Network contracts often make "your wildest dreams come true" for some schools and money is a huge carrot. BYU would definitely be a candidate as they apparently were before.



2. Big 12, through network, NCAA or other P5 conferences is forced to have a championship game. BYU once again a candidate.



3. P5 shuffle happens and Big 12 scrambles to protect themselves and adds whatever solid school they can.



I simply will not hold my breath. Everyone is basically guessing what the immediate future will be with the changes (stipends, etc.) on the horizon. We are not in an enviable position by any means. Chip Brown's interview yesterday brought back our memory that we went through a few months in 2010 when it didn't even look like the B12 would survive to be a power conference when Texas and Oklahoma almost bolted. That was Puketah's luckiest event in the last century when they didn't and they therefore received the invitation. It is still amazing that the B12 survived despite losing Texas A&M, Missouri and Nebraska.

Like you said, I suspect, the networks overpaid for the tv contract. If they added teams and renegotiated, they could get less money. Makes it tough to get added. When the tv contact ends, that would be a time for them to consider expansion.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8346345/big-12-announces-media-deal-abc-espn-fox" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So I just checked and the Big 12 TV deal runs through 2024-25. So BYU's best chance at being considered as an add would be if the Maryland lawsuit results in the Grant of Rights being thrown out and realignment shuffles again or in the Div 4/P5 school evolution they require the Big 12 to expand and have a conference championship like the other conferences.

Fido wrote:
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8346345/big-12-announces-media-deal-abc-espn-fox

So I just checked and the Big 12 TV deal runs through 2024-25. So BYU's best chance at being considered as an add would be if the Maryland lawsuit results in the Grant of Rights being thrown out and realignment shuffles again or in the Div 4/P5 school evolution they require the Big 12 to expand and have a conference championship like the other conferences.

Or BYU fans could get their act together and fill LES every week no matter who is coming to town and BYU fans around the globe could tune in and watch the games on ESPN and create a frenzy of advertisers trying to get those games. Make TH keep that stadium expansion committment. Think Nebraska.



Boid: before you jump in and reiterate that BYU is already a more powerful draw with fans than many of the P5 schools in any conference and especially the Big 12, you are right but completely missed the point. Those schools are already in and there is not much precedence for booting someone who is already in - that is why the MWC was formed. WAC could not jettison 8 teams, so the other 8 formed a new conference. That does not happen often either. And the Big 12 locked teams from even leaving voluntarily with the grant of rights.



Until BYU can bring more money to the table than what each Big 12 team is already enjoying and find a partner who could do the same thing, Big 12 will not budge unless forced to do so by new rules demanding more teams and a playoff game. There does not seem to be much traction re this happening.



or



This: Texas or Oklahoma are sitting at 1 loss and do not get in the playoff because a 1-loss Ohio State team had an extra win due to beating Wisconsin in a Conference Championship Game. The opposite happened a few years ago re BCS access and a conference championship game upset loss kept The Big 12 out. That is why they are happy to stay at 10. They do not care about the money. They being Texas and Oklahoma. They expect to compete for and win the NC every year. They will do whatever it takes to increase those odds. About the time an SEC team gets left out with 1 loss and Texas or Okie get in undefeated without having played that CCG, expect SEC to start throwing its considerable weight around.



Right now, P5 schools just want to move on and get their mutually agreed rule changes in place and will not pick fights over things that might create a Big 12 revolt.



The fights will come later.



Their are about 10 schools drowning in money that only care about winning the NC. Their conference mates get a windfall share of the money generated by those pursuits. They know where their break gets buttered and will fall in line. In the bread and butter line it is all about money. For Alabama, Florida, Auburn, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and USC - they have money - tons of it - because they are expected to be in the hunt every single year.



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NDCougar wrote:
Example: the conference makes $100. 10 members would each make $10.



If BYU brings in $5 of new revenue. New conference has $105 by 11 members, that means despite BYU bringing in money the average member now makes $9.55.



That means BYU would need to bring in $10's for break-even.

You nailed it, NDCougar. The Big 12 doesn't see how BYU brings in enough money right now to not dilute the pie. The real numbers are: $220 million (or $22 million per team - although most schools received $23 million, because TCU and UWV are still phasing in).



http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2014/05/30/big-12-schools-share-record-220m-revenue-for-2013-14-with-most-schools-getting/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



So, BYU (and other factors) need to add at least $22 million to the deal to even come under consideration. That's not happening. The Big 12 would need an additional $44 million to expand with two teams. That's really not happening.



So, the BIg 12 isn't expanding before the TV contract comes up for renewal unless forced. So, patience will be important. The Big 12 still doesn't know whether its current structure will help or harm them in the CFP era.



The one factor that could help BYU is the conference championship game. I couldn't find any direct online references, but rumors were that most CCG's added about $10 million per year to the conference media rights deals.



The PAC 12 recently stated that the deal with Levi's and 49ers stadium should net conference members at least $1 million MORE per school. That's $12 million, ON TOP OF, whatever the conference championship game was worth before the Levi deal.



http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000351818/article/pac12-schools-expected-to-cash-in-on-deal-with-levis-stadium" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



So, a Big 12 CCG likely adds between $15-20 million to the conference. That reduces the threshold to about $20-25 million value that the TWO newcomers would have to bring through new and better TV inventory, or roughly $1.5-2 million per home game. BYU is close (especially with Big 12 home lineups), is anyone else?