Kool-aid Additive

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Drink it deep. He makes some good projections.

Here's my projection that gives me confidence for 2014.



Taysom Hill will be more accurate. I don't think we'll have four games below 50% completion - let alone three below 40% - and I don't think we'll have six below 55% either.



If Taysom were completing passes at a 60% clip instead of a 53.8% clip last year - and all other ratios being equals (yards per completion, TDs per completion, etc) - his passing season would have looked like this:



263 of 439 (.600) for 3,279 yards, 21 TDs and 16 INTs. Those additional 27 completions, 341 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs would have raised his PER from 117.88 to 131.57.



I think Hill will be closer to 150 in PER this year than he will to 120.

I enjoyed this article earlier today. The only point that is somewhat verifiable and/or believable to me is the concept of the secondary playing man to man. We haven't been able to do that in ages. Who knows if JJ and TT can actually hack it, but if they can then we're going to have a legit D again that could get us over the top this year.



I want to believe the offense will be special too, and it should be, but I can't drink that one yet.

mizzoucoug wrote:
I enjoyed this article earlier today. The only point that is somewhat verifiable and/or believable to me is the concept of the secondary playing man to man. We haven't been able to do that in ages. Who knows if JJ and TT can actually hack it, but if they can then we're going to have a legit D again that could get us over the top this year.



I want to believe the offense will be special too, and it should be, but I can't drink that one yet.

Bronco has had some pretty good defenses since he has been here while hiding a serious lack of talent in the secondary (06, 07, 09, 10, 11, and 13). Think of what he can do with legit talent back there. This years defense is going to be good. If the offensive line can come together and the talent at wide out lives up to its hype, we could have a scary offense. THill is already a very special player, if we can surround him with some talent, it might give us all the special season we have been craving.

frdbtr wrote:

I enjoyed this article earlier today. The only point that is somewhat verifiable and/or believable to me is the concept of the secondary playing man to man. We haven't been able to do that in ages. Who knows if JJ and TT can actually hack it, but if they can then we're going to have a legit D again that could get us over the top this year.



I want to believe the offense will be special too, and it should be, but I can't drink that one yet.

Bronco has had some pretty good defenses since he has been here while hiding a serious lack of talent in the secondary (06, 07, 09, 10, 11, and 13). Think of what he can do with legit talent back there. This years defense is going to be good. If the offensive line can come together and the talent at wide out lives up to its hype, we could have a scary offense. THill is already a very special player, if we can surround him with some talent, it might give us all the special season we have been craving.

I highlighted the Big IF. It might be the only relevant IF.....I am not persuaded it can happen....

IMO, the biggest IF is still Hill.



If HE improves his accuracy and efficiency the OL won't be as essential. It's easier to fix one guy than five. And there are things he can correct to improve his passing game that are irrelevant to the progress of the OL.



Last year he just flat out missed on WAY too many throws. If he can just start hitting on those even those, it will be great boon for the BYU offense - and team as a whole.

SpiffCoug wrote:
IMO, the biggest IF is still Hill.



If HE improves his accuracy and efficiency the OL won't be as essential. It's easier to fix one guy than five. And there are things he can correct to improve his passing game that are irrelevant to the progress of the OL.



Last year he just flat out missed on WAY too many throws. If he can just start hitting on those even those, it will be great boon for the BYU offense - and team as a whole.

Probably right. I think thought that an OL can make a QB better much better with protection and forcing the D to really respect the run game....

BoiseBYU wrote:

IMO, the biggest IF is still Hill.



If HE improves his accuracy and efficiency the OL won't be as essential. It's easier to fix one guy than five. And there are things he can correct to improve his passing game that are irrelevant to the progress of the OL.



Last year he just flat out missed on WAY too many throws. If he can just start hitting on those even those, it will be great boon for the BYU offense - and team as a whole.

Probably right. I think thought that an OL can make a QB better much better with protection and forcing the D to really respect the run game....

Most definitely. IF the OL comes around sooner rather than later, than Hill's improvements should be accelerated and raised to a higher level (rising tides and all that, right Bib?).



But there is still improvement to be had from just Hill alone that could be a huge boon for the Cougars in 2014.



But if BOTH Hill and the OL make strides, BYU will be an extremely difficult offense to defend.

SpiffCoug wrote:

SpiffCoug wrote:
IMO, the biggest IF is still Hill.



If HE improves his accuracy and efficiency the OL won't be as essential. It's easier to fix one guy than five. And there are things he can correct to improve his passing game that are irrelevant to the progress of the OL.



Last year he just flat out missed on WAY too many throws. If he can just start hitting on those even those, it will be great boon for the BYU offense - and team as a whole.

Probably right. I think thought that an OL can make a QB better much better with protection and forcing the D to really respect the run game....

Most definitely. IF the OL comes around sooner rather than later, than Hill's improvements should be accelerated and raised to a higher level (rising tides and all that, right Bib?).



But there is still improvement to be had from just Hill alone that could be a huge boon for the Cougars in 2014.



But if BOTH Hill and the OL make strides, BYU will be an extremely difficult offense to defend.

Yes. I guess all I am saying is I have more confidence we will see such improvements in Hill than in the OL...

I will drink it again as I do every year its actually part of what makes this all so fun and it keeps us coming back.That said I really hope the blue Kool-aid doesn't turn out to be Smurf piss.

SpiffCoug wrote:
IMO, the biggest IF is still Hill.



If HE improves his accuracy and efficiency the OL won't be as essential. It's easier to fix one guy than five. And there are things he can correct to improve his passing game that are irrelevant to the progress of the OL.



Last year he just flat out missed on WAY too many throws. If he can just start hitting on those even those, it will be great boon for the BYU offense - and team as a whole.

I disagree, it all starts with the offensive line. If Hill hadn't been running for his life the second the ball hit his hands from the shotgun snap all year last year, his accuracy would have been much better.

frdbtr wrote:

IMO, the biggest IF is still Hill.



If HE improves his accuracy and efficiency the OL won't be as essential. It's easier to fix one guy than five. And there are things he can correct to improve his passing game that are irrelevant to the progress of the OL.



Last year he just flat out missed on WAY too many throws. If he can just start hitting on those even those, it will be great boon for the BYU offense - and team as a whole.

I disagree, it all starts with the offensive line. If Hill hadn't been running for his life the second the ball hit his hands from the shotgun snap all year last year, his accuracy would have been much better.

It is not one or the other. Both points have validity. A strong OL would have made several QBS look better the last few years. But, better QB play would have taken pressure off the OL. The Hill could improve substantially even if the OL does not.



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I don't need to drink it. There is ample evidence to support a noticeable improvement in the O this year. I think we go from a 6-7 to an 8 and that's conservative, it could be a 9. To eat (a Cougar dog) and drink is both possible. To eat is to say that there is definite improvement. To drink is to say that there is arguably more than that and a good convergence going on. Consider just the facts and then the plausible and you get your facts your koolaid too:



Facts

Second year of an offensive scheme.

Bronco has made the O an emphasis in the off-season

THill showing PER improvement already (not focusing primarily on rehab)

Added plays to make it more dynamic.

Deeper, better conditioned, overall improved Oline (fact, bc it couldn't be much worse)

More skilled players (presumably better but that's in the icing category)

Several Oline starters from last year are slated to be second string



Koolaid (plausible)

More, legit deep threats, more speed throughout--looks this way but have to see proof.

Improved, expanded scheme with better skill players and deep threats will very plausibly and synergistically open up the field even more for RBs and TH.

If the Oline is not just deeper but as nasty as Anae is suggesting (last year they would get punched and role over) the Blue-Zone should be vastly improved. (Imagine Wins like vs Houston, when the O was clicking on all cylinders.)



It's just not a stretch to conceive of an offense that is 20% (5-10 ppg) better, with the biggest improvement occurring in the Blue-zone. And that's the difference to seeing a double digit win season.

Now if the D can hold serve, and the schedule lighten up (fact) and this could be more than a koolaid year, it could have a carbonation and caffeine kick too.

Hill completed 41.7% of his passes in the blue zone last year. That awful completion percentage, IMO is more on the QB than the OL. But if the between 20s offense remains the same and we can improve in the blue zone alone the offense will be great.



I'm with Cougs_Rule on that point. IF the offense can figure out how to score TDs and not go backwards or attemtp FGs then the Cougs should easily win 10+ games.

Replace @Wisconsin, @ND, and U with more typical strength opponents and Washington with a more typical Bowl Opponent, and BYU would have won 10 or more in 2013. It is never easy, but easier opponents make it easier. And, even though BYU starts with another cross country trip vs a beatable team again, Nearly New QB coming off injury, new Offensive coaching staff and scheme, and injury riddled secondary should not contribute to a loss.



So compared to 2013, we do not likely give away an opener we should have won. +1. Maybe Texas does not conveniently lay an egg. -1. Utah is not on the schedule so we get a close win vs someone else. +1. Replace UW, ND, and Washington with manageable opponents, and we win at least 1 of those. +1 at least.



8+1-1+1+1 or more = 10+. BYU does not need to improve to win 10 games vs a more reasonable schedule. So the issue is not the offense. It cannot help but be as good or better. BYU just needs to hope the D is not worse and that the kicking game is not worse - both are question marks.



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There is no question that Taysom hill needs to improve, he was a sophomore QB but IMO to put the blame squarely on his shoulders for not winning 10 games last year is completely absurd. It was Taysom who was responsible for the 8 wins that we had in spite of the poor offensive line play he had to play behind. If you listen to the interviews from pretty much everyone involved with BYU football, priority #1 in the off season was to improve the offensive line. The Oline last year was horrible, the worst I have ever seen in all the years I have watched BYU football. If our Oline was even as good as it was in 10, 11, or 12 (when we all complained loudly about Oline play calling for the head of the Oline coach), we would probably have won 10 games last year.

frdbtr wrote:
There is no question that Taysom hill needs to improve, he was a sophomore QB but IMO to put the blame squarely on his shoulders for not winning 10 games last year is completely absurd. It was Taysom who was responsible for the 8 wins that we had in spite of the poor offensive line play he had to play behind. If you listen to the interviews from pretty much everyone involved with BYU football, priority #1 in the off season was to improve the offensive line. The Oline last year was horrible, the worst I have ever seen in all the years I have watched BYU football. If our Oline was even as good as it was in 10, 11, or 12 (when we all complained loudly about Oline play calling for the head of the Oline coach), we would probably have won 10 games last year.

Amen. Fans are right in criticizing his throwing for some of the season, BUT he is solely responsible for our best win last season vs UT and he destroyed BSU and USU as well. He also gave us a fighting chance against Wisconsin. This team is crap last season w/o Taysom.

Mizzou, you are using a non- sequitur. Or at least fully attributing his PER problems to the Oline. But you are totally forgetting the fact that if Thill delivered better passes, as he will this year, even while protected, we pick up at least one more win. BYU had to rely on Thill's legs bc THills arm wasn't sufficiently reliable either. This affects play calling as well.

So, yes, thill saved the season. But THills PER challenges were at least part his doing. Else wise, why would it be his top priority to improve it?

Few are criticizing/condemning. The stats are what they are.