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BYU vs. USF predictions

by Wolfman · 3/10/2014

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Wolfman
So how does this one shake out tonight? It's difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season and USF has hung with the Cougs in each of the first two contests before BYU slowly pulled away down the stretch in close games. I think this will be their toughest game of the WCC tourney because the Dons are playing solid basketball right now and have won 20 games while Gonzaga is not playing well at the moment and could lose to St. Mary's (which BYU also swept during the regular season) and they are not the same Gael squad BYU has seen the past few years... they are vulnerable and not as good as USF or Gonzaga. So I think BYU has its toughest test of the tourney tonight. If they get by USF, I think they'll beat Gonzaga or St. Mary's for the WCC tourney title. As for tonight's game, I'm predicting a BYU win in OT, 83-80. And then it's on to the WCC title, an automatic bid, an 11 seed for the tournament and then one and done. What do you guys think?
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Wolverine
9 point BYU win....83-74
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BYULV
Agree it is tough to beat a team three straight, but mainly because you figure a team out. Fortunately for us in this case, we are just barely figuring ourselves out. USF is definitely playing well currently, but so are we. I predict we win a close one in regulation, possibly due to a couple extra points due to Walters' technical he will draw after getting frustrated with Collinsworth. We win by 7 if we make some free throws.



Agree with USF being toughest game then the zags. Don't agree with seeding. I suspect we will be 11 seed if we lose Championship to zags and get at large bid, but we get a seed or two higher if we win the Conf tourney autobid. We suddenly have a pretty strong resume: Conf tourney champs, end season winning 9/10, beat Zags twice in that span, top 20 SOS, LOW 30 RPI.



** correction: just looked up SOS and we are only 43-44 overall, but #8 OOC SOS - that will help. RPI IS 33 or 34 depending on where you look.
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Wolverine
BYULV wrote:
Agree it is tough to beat a team three straight, but mainly because you figure a team out. Fortunately for us in this case, we are just barely figuring ourselves out. USF is definitely playing well currently, but so are we. I predict we win a close one in regulation, possibly due to a couple extra points due to Walters' technical he will draw after getting frustrated with Collinsworth. We win by 7 if we make some free throws.



Agree with USF being toughest game then the zags. Don't agree with seeding. I suspect we will be 11 seed if we lose Championship to zags and get at large bid, but we get a seed or two higher if we win the Conf tourney autobid. We suddenly have a pretty strong resume: Conf tourney champs, end season winning 9/10, beat Zags twice in that span, top 20 SOS, LOW 30 RPI.



** correction: just looked up SOS and we are only 43-44 overall, but #8 OOC SOS - that will help. RPI IS 33 or 34 depending on where you look.

This is slightly off topic and jumping the gun quite a bit, but would you prefer a #8/#9 seed and match-up with a # 1 on deck, or be a #12 vs #5 with a potential #4 on deck? Isn't the #12 vs #5 one of the most common first round upsets? I really hope we get to ponder such things throughout the week. :) Go Cougars!
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Gunk
USF is playing solid ball. Tonight will be a tough game and is more important than the championship game. We lose tonight and we go to the NIT. We win and likely go dancing even with a loss tomorrow.



USF is a bit tricky because they are a fairly balanced team with four players averaging double figures. We'll need to limit Dickerson and keep Holmes from getting hot behind the arc. While not a prolific 3-ball team, if we can shut it down from the outside than I like our chances. It's good Worthington has been getting more minutes because we'll need him down the stretch.



I'd be surprised if SMC wins tonight.
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Gunk
Wolverine wrote:
Agree it is tough to beat a team three straight, but mainly because you figure a team out. Fortunately for us in this case, we are just barely figuring ourselves out. USF is definitely playing well currently, but so are we. I predict we win a close one in regulation, possibly due to a couple extra points due to Walters' technical he will draw after getting frustrated with Collinsworth. We win by 7 if we make some free throws.



Agree with USF being toughest game then the zags. Don't agree with seeding. I suspect we will be 11 seed if we lose Championship to zags and get at large bid, but we get a seed or two higher if we win the Conf tourney autobid. We suddenly have a pretty strong resume: Conf tourney champs, end season winning 9/10, beat Zags twice in that span, top 20 SOS, LOW 30 RPI.



** correction: just looked up SOS and we are only 43-44 overall, but #8 OOC SOS - that will help. RPI IS 33 or 34 depending on where you look.

This is slightly off topic and jumping the gun quite a bit, but would you prefer a #8/#9 seed and match-up with a # 1 on deck, or be a #12 vs #5 with a potential #4 on deck? Isn't the #12 vs #5 one of the most common first round upsets? I really hope we get to ponder such things throughout the week. :) Go Cougars!


At this point, I'd take any seed. That said, I actually would prefer a 12 seed over an 8 or 9.
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snoscythe
BYU puts the Dons down 84-69.
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BYULV
Wolverine wrote:
Agree it is tough to beat a team three straight, but mainly because you figure a team out. Fortunately for us in this case, we are just barely figuring ourselves out. USF is definitely playing well currently, but so are we. I predict we win a close one in regulation, possibly due to a couple extra points due to Walters' technical he will draw after getting frustrated with Collinsworth. We win by 7 if we make some free throws.



Agree with USF being toughest game then the zags. Don't agree with seeding. I suspect we will be 11 seed if we lose Championship to zags and get at large bid, but we get a seed or two higher if we win the Conf tourney autobid. We suddenly have a pretty strong resume: Conf tourney champs, end season winning 9/10, beat Zags twice in that span, top 20 SOS, LOW 30 RPI.



** correction: just looked up SOS and we are only 43-44 overall, but #8 OOC SOS - that will help. RPI IS 33 or 34 depending on where you look.

This is slightly off topic and jumping the gun quite a bit, but would you prefer a #8/#9 seed and match-up with a # 1 on deck, or be a #12 vs #5 with a potential #4 on deck? Isn't the #12 vs #5 one of the most common first round upsets? I really hope we get to ponder such things throughout the week. :) Go Cougars!


I kinda like the 12 seed, underdog role, especially if we win the conference tourney so we don't have to play the playin game. Depending on who the five seed is, I think we have a good chance of competing well with most of them. BYU, for whatever reason, doesn't seem to play as well when they're favored in big games (maybe a huge generalization, but it seems that way).
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stuckinbig10country
I prefer the 10 seed to even the 12 seed, but 8/9 seeded games are always toss ups and then you get a well rested 1 seed, who didn't even need to play a 2nd half against a 16. Although, Arizona in the west I think would be a good matchup for us. They can't shoot a lick at times.



But what do you know, the Shockers went from an 8/9 game to the final 4 and now are undefeated.



As for the game tonight, I'm really not confident in our chances, especially if Carlino isn't who we need him to be. LMU just wasn't very good, so we got away with a less than stellar game from Matty.
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Schmoe
I predict a BYU win.
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Cougarbib
I predicted BYU by 5 a week ago in the WCC Tournament thread.



I will stick with that model there. Worked well for LMU game.



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craigoscarson
I predict that USF will rough up Tyler as bad as he's been all season, but BYU wins if Dickerson gets in foul trouble.



KC is playing too well right now to double on Tyler.



The only way I see USF winning is if the refs swallow their whistles all game long because Walters is going to have his guys hunting for blood. (maybe even a fight tonight)
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mizzoucoug
Wolfman wrote:
So how does this one shake out tonight? It's difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season and USF has hung with the Cougs in each of the first two contests before BYU slowly pulled away down the stretch in close games. I think this will be their toughest game of the WCC tourney because the Dons are playing solid basketball right now and have won 20 games while Gonzaga is not playing well at the moment and could lose to St. Mary's (which BYU also swept during the regular season) and they are not the same Gael squad BYU has seen the past few years... they are vulnerable and not as good as USF or Gonzaga. So I think BYU has its toughest test of the tourney tonight. If they get by USF, I think they'll beat Gonzaga or St. Mary's for the WCC tourney title. As for tonight's game, I'm predicting a BYU win in OT, 83-80. And then it's on to the WCC title, an automatic bid, an 11 seed for the tournament and then one and done. What do you guys think?


We'll get past the first game in the tourney. This team has the tools. As long as they don't face a great big man they'll get a W.
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Wolfman
BYULV wrote:
Don't agree with seeding. I suspect we will be 11 seed if we lose Championship to zags and get at large bid, but we get a seed or two higher if we win the Conf tourney autobid.



I don't think whoever wins the WCC tourney will get any higher than a 10 seed - the conference just isn't very strong and doesn't typically get much respect from the NCAA selection committee - its 2nd place team right now (BYU) has 10 losses on the season and Gonzaga, even though they only have 6 losses, has a very low SOS at 96. The conference will be lucky to get 3 teams in, especially if it comes down to BYU-Gonzaga for the WCC championship.



We suddenly have a pretty strong resume: Conf tourney champs, end season winning 9/10, beat Zags twice in that span, top 20 SOS, LOW 30 RPI.



True, but those early season losses to Pepperdine and Loyola-Marymount and then later to Portland and Pacific will come back to haunt the Cougs, especially if they don't win the WCC tourney. Their SOS, by the way, is 70, not top 20 (which will be another factor in the seeding should they make the tourney). Either way... they won't get much respect.
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Wolfman
mizzoucoug wrote:
We'll get past the first game in the tourney. This team has the tools. As long as they don't face a great big man they'll get a W.

Defense will be a problem should they get in and if they do manage to get in via automatic bid, they won't get any higher than a 10 seed and if they somehow get an at-large bid, they're looking at an 11-12 seed - they aren't good enough at both ends of the floor to beat a 7 seed or better in the big dance and like you said, if they were to see a good big man, forget it. The Cougs have been too inconsistent to pose any sort of a threat to a 7 seeded team or better - good grief, they just went 0/12 from 3 against LMU in the WCC tourney - they do that in the big dance and it is lights out.
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craigoscarson
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_305_Men.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Our SOS is 43 our RPI is 34 and will be sub30 if we win tonight.



Our noncon SOS was #2 in the country... that's why we get in..... RESPECT FOR NON CON SCHEDULING



Utahs noncon SOS was about #220 and overall #100...



The selection committee likes teams that take on tough noncons and play road games... they have penalized teams in the recent past that didn't.



If BYU wins this game tonight, they're in and because of our talent, we won't be worse than a 10 regardless of the championship game... that's what you get when you play tough teams in the noncon... they also like teams that are improving and this BYU team is on a roll.



BTW in the last 10 years, only 4-5 teams with an RPI better than 32 haven't gotten in and most of them had a sub .500 record in their conference
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craigoscarson
Wolfman wrote:
We'll get past the first game in the tourney. This team has the tools. As long as they don't face a great big man they'll get a W.

Defense will be a problem should they get in and if they do manage to get in via automatic bid, they won't get any higher than a 10 seed and if they somehow get an at-large bid, they're looking at an 11-12 seed - they aren't good enough at both ends of the floor to beat a 7 seed or better in the big dance and like you said, if they were to see a good big man, forget it. The Cougs have been too inconsistent to pose any sort of a threat to a 7 seeded team or better - good grief, they just went 0/12 from 3 against LMU in the WCC tourney - they do that in the big dance and it is lights out.


When the brackets come out, the experts will call BYU a "dangerous 10 seed" (count on it)... so who's right? You the BYU hating troll or them?



Inconsistent does mean dangerous... it means you're probably right (just mathematical odds means you have a good shot of not looking stupider than we all know you are) but also possibly way off. Depends on what BYU team shows up.



Inconsistent but still dangerous... you're not getting it. One game, BYU has the talent to take down anyone outside of the top 10. We led WSU at half and were down by 3 with 2 min left. We led Oregon going to OT at their place, we put it on Stanford at their place, we handled Texas on a neutral court, and so on.



KC is the biggest reason why this team is dangerous... he's going to be the runaway WCC player of the year next year, even with Tyler on the team.. that's how special KC is, he just does so much and this year he gets some slack just getting home from Russia... next year? Game over... but right now he's figured it out and no one has figured him out.



Max Good of LMU told KC that he sees him in the NBA (I do too if he gets a jumpshot, he reminds me of Ginobili, but a better rebounder).
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Wolfman
craigoscarson wrote:
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_305_Men.html



Our SOS is 43 our RPI is 34 and will be sub30 if we win tonight.



Their SOS is 69...



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/



Our noncon SOS was #2 in the country... that's why we get in



How many of the 7 non-conference games that mattered did they win? 2.



The selection committee likes teams that take on tough noncons and play road games... they have penalized teams in the recent past that didn't.



They beat Stanford on the road in a close, high-scoring affair in the 100's by both sides and barely beat Texas - they lost the rest - you gotta impress on the road in those games, not just schedule them.



If BYU wins this game tonight, they're in



Wanna bet? They win tonight and then lose in the final, they're a bubble team. They lose tonight, forget it.



and because of our talent, we won't be worse than a 10 regardless of the championship game... that's what you get when you play tough teams in the noncon... they also like teams that are improving and this BYU team is on a roll.



The only decent team they've beaten in their last 9 is Gonzaga... all the others have a combined WCC win-loss record of 62-82.
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craigoscarson
Wolfman wrote:
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_305_Men.html



Our SOS is 43 our RPI is 34 and will be sub30 if we win tonight.



Their SOS is 69...



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/



Our noncon SOS was #2 in the country... that's why we get in



How many of the 7 non-conference games that mattered did they win? 2.



The selection committee likes teams that take on tough noncons and play road games... they have penalized teams in the recent past that didn't.



They beat Stanford on the road in a close, high-scoring affair in the 100's by both sides and barely beat Texas - they lost the rest - you gotta impress on the road in those games, not just schedule them.



If BYU wins this game tonight, they're in



Wanna bet? They win tonight and then lose in the final, they're a bubble team. They lose tonight, forget it.



and because of our talent, we won't be worse than a 10 regardless of the championship game... that's what you get when you play tough teams in the noncon... they also like teams that are improving and this BYU team is on a roll.



The only decent team they've beaten in their last 9 is Gonzaga... all the others have a combined WCC win-loss record of 62-82.




Yes, I will take that bet. If BYU wins tonight and loses to Gonzaga they're still in the dance. I'll put $1000 on that ... you've got 2 hours to take that bet. I'll fedex a check to hawkwing tomorrow a.m. if you accept. Better do the same. In fact when I win, I'll donate your $1000 to paying for the 1st 25 eagle scouts in Utah Valley that step up to go to a BYU football game next year... food and seats on me.



The WCC commish is on the selection team and BYU played the #2 toughest non-con schedule in the country with most of those big games away from the MC. (in fact BYU was darn near perfect in the MC with the only blemish being the eye clawing ISU game that could have easily gone BYUs way).. Only 4-5 teams in the last decade have had a sub 30 RPI and not gotten in. The RPI is the committee go to and the one they use on CBSsports.com (CBS being the tourney channel)... They could care less about sagarin..



Also Joe Lunardi has been darn near perfect the last few years and is dialed in and says BYU is in.



Troll all you want, because if they win tonight they're in... you asked for a bet, you got one.



If they don't win tonight... they dont' deserve to be in.. couldnt' agree more there. They played too many close games that went the wrong way.. but I also would not want to be the 6-7 seeded team that plays BYU.. we're a very tough out for a tourney 10-11.
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EM_Puma
I'm just nervous. So much hangs on this game. BYU has all the tools to win this game convincingly, but...



Interesting how Dave Rose is going with Mika to start. I guess to mix it up a bit?
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