Shooting Guard Opportunity Myths - Poll

I could have broadened this to include all guards, as there are myths about what opportunity MC and KC get at the point, but this poll is focused on which back-up guard got the best shot at the beginning of the season to grab the brass ring as the Starting #2. I use 2 loosely because Carlino, Collinsworth, and Haws are also guards and at times played #2 so a back-up guard could play another spot. We will basically ignore the fact that Carlino was nudged aside to that spot later as he did not get there by audition or desire and asked to be moved to back-up PG rather than start at 2. A terrible move followed by a brilliant one.



So, we have players X, Y, and Z auditioning. I define the early opportunity period when there really was not a definite starter as Games 1 thru 6: Weber State, Stanford, Mt Saint M, Colo Mesa, Iowa State, and Texas. Minutes are shown.



Player X - Winder

17, 21, 30 starting, 27 starting, 21, and 13 totalling 129 minutes.



Player Y - Halford

5, 8, 26, 22, 5, and 2 totalling 68 minutes.



Player Z - Bartley

5, 11, 19, 17, 8, and 26 totalling 86 minutes.



1st Audition Summary

Winder: 129 minutes and 2 starts.

Bartley: 86 minutes.

Halford: 68 minutes.

Winder started strong but faded badly on shooting and FT shooting.



From Wichita State, USU, N Texas, Utah, and Oregon, a 2nd audition took place and it went like this:



Player X - Winder

7, 1, 14, 13, and 1 totalling 36 minutes.



Player Y - Halford

5, 13, 20, 12, and 14 totalling 64 minutes.



Player Z - Bartley

20, 20, 13, 19, and 20 totalling 92 minutes.



2nd Audition Summary

Bartley 92 minutes

Halford 64 minutes

Winder 36 minutes

Bartley started out well but quickly plummeted and Winder continued to be inconsistent. Half or was shooting from the field and stripe quite well.



3rd Audition Summary

Carlino played at the #2 for 2 or 3 games.



4th Audition Summary

Halford became a starter. Started red hot for 2 games. Continued to shoot well and FT extremely well for several games but at reduced volume. Then tanked from the Gonzaga loss forward.



5th Audition Summary

Winder is the starter. Red hot from the field and the line except for a poor showing at SD.



Fans argue both ways re Winder and Halford as defenders. I will leave that judgment to Rose who knows what he asks them to do and how well they do that. Offensive data supports the changes made and the timing of those changes. Some think Winder should have replaced Halford sooner. He actually did if you look at the minutes in mid February forward. He had more minutes than Halford at least twice and similar minutes a few other times.



Who clearly got the first shot? Vote for this on the poll.



Feel free to note in your comments which player clearly got the 2nd look when the player that got the first look faltered.



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KC got the first chance at the 2. BYU was getting results but not quite everything Coach Rose wanted. So he tried to switch things up by swapping Carlino and Collinsworth. That had disastrous results. KC stayed at the 1, MC to the bench with Halford taking full advantage of his opportunity.



But he couldn't maintain his early starting production, so Winder got the chance.



You are also wrong in stating that there wasn't a defined 2 to start the season (Games 1-6). There was. It was Collinsworth. He just kind of struggles with the "shooting" portion of the "shooting" guard position.



He and Carlino switched because Carlino is the "better" shooter and Rose wanted a "better" at the 2 and because Collinsworth is also a very good distributor (15 games w/ 5 or more assists). But when Carlino didn't succeed at the 2 and asked to play the 1 - even if it meant coming off the bench, then Coach Rose began looking for a new 2.



And for a while it looked like was going to be Halford - averaging 16.5 points in his first four starts and scoring in double digits in five of the first six as well. But then he went cold from 3 (9 of 22 .409) in his first five starts to 9 of 38 (.237) since.



So Rose went to Winder - who actually played well early in the season when Haws missed a game (or was limited by that early back injury/muscle strain). And Winder has looked very good both offensively and defensively in these last five starts.

You did not vote FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL, but your comment does seem to recognize that Winder got the most minutes early in the season and that he was the starter when Haws went down. You indicated that he played well. He did at first, but was shooting so poorly in games 4, 5, and 6, that his minutes were handed to Bartley.





Rose never intended to have KC play full time at the 2. The value of KC is his versatility to play multiple positions and the 2 is not his best. He played out of position. Rose clearly does not want him permanently at the point, either, or Carlino would not be getting near starter minutes coming off the bench. Rose clearly wanted to add another guard to the rotation, and the three reserves above each got a shot. Rose wants flexibility to move KC around based on individual match-ups.



The first shot was was given to Winder - the junior with 2-3 years in the program. Look at the minutes. But Winder faded badly after defenses focused on him. He faded so badly, that Bartley's minutes were increased sharply at his expense after the Texas game. Unfortunately, Bartley started out brilliantly but fell off the edge of the floor as defenses adjusted to him. Bartley never bounced back. Winder eventually did, but, not until after the Carlino failure and after Halford finally got his shot. Halford got the starter nod as Carlino went to the bench after playing the 2 for 3 games. But Halford eventually faded slowly and then fell off the edge of the court and Winder got another shot and other than the SD game, has played very well. Looks completely different now. Has obviously worked on his shooting and FT shooting.



Rose has done a great job developing Winder. But, if you look at shooting and FT shooting, Winder, Halford, and Bartley started out great. Then Winder slid badly on shooting and FT shooting. Bartley got a shot to step up. He crashed on shooting and FT shooting. Then Carlino briefly. Then Halford got to start. He was red hot for 2 games. Production dropped after that, but efficiency was still decent and FT shooting remained hot. But, after losing to Gonzaga, his shooting went in the tank. Then Winder won the job. Looks like Winder might just keep the job now.



If I posted shooting percentages, you would clearly see why each player got a bigger opportunity, why they lost that opportunity, and why Winder got another opportunity.



Some think Winder never got a shot until now. Winder and Halford have almost identical minutes on the season. Winder got more minutes than Halford in some games that Halford started and nearly equal minutes in some games Halford started. When Winder started shooting so much better from the field and the FT line as Halford's field goal percentage tanked, Winder won the job.



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I voted that everyone got a chance. Can we use names so we actually know who and what we're talking about?

SpiffCoug wrote:
Can we use names so we actually know who and what we're talking about?

Seconded, my brain is too fragile in the mornings and with all the Xs and Ys this is too much like a math problem.

Ask and ye shall receive. I tried to keep it a mystery re names to get people to take emotion about their favorite players out of it and just look at the data.

I will edit OP.



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I don't think auditions ever occurred. Rose had five new rotation players this season (Collinsworth, Mika, Bartley, Halford & Worthington). It's unfortunate it took him 28 games to get a good feel for his team and to find the best rotation. But I don't think he was holding auditions. He wasn't trying one guy and then going down the list.



He tried guys in different situations and it took 28 games for - what appears to be the final solution - it to solidify. I don't think Bartley was ever in the running to be the starting 2.



I think the biggest myth is that players were auditioning. Rose was tinkering with his lineup trying to find a way to get five new rotational players to mesh with four returning players (Haws, Carlino, Austin & Sharp). He seems to have found a rotation he likes and the team responds to.

Seems to me the best way to determine whether a ring was grasped or not is to look at the players' production from a per minute basis off the bench versus as a starter.



At the end if the day the debate is rather pointless. Regardless of whether a ring was grasped in the past or not it's being grasped now and now is what matters. Rose went with Winder and it's paying dividends now as we head into the most critical portion of the season.



We only see games, which is about a tenth of the time Rose sees these guys playing. Who is improving, who is responding better to coaching, who works better with whom, etc is all seen better by Rose.



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Gunk wrote:
Seems to me the best way to determine whether a ring was grasped or not is to look at the players' production from a per minute basis off the bench versus as a starter.



At the end if the day the debate is rather pointless. Regardless of whether a ring was grasped in the past or not it's being grasped now and now is what matters. Rose went with Winder and it's paying dividends now as we head into the most critical portion of the season.



We only see games, which is about a tenth of the time Rose sees these guys playing. Who is improving, who is responding better to coaching, who works better with whom, etc is all seen better by Rose.



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I looked up this data to make sure my memory was accurate when I responded to comments that Winder should have been starting all season or that he never got a chance earlier to show what he could do. Rose cle a ray wanted to add another guard to get starter or near starter minutes and all 3 of these reserves got a chance to do it. I did not post all of the details, but the increase and decrease to the minutes of each player closely correlates to their productivity swings.



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SpiffCoug wrote:
I don't think auditions ever occurred. Rose had five new rotation players this season (Collinsworth, Mika, Bartley, Halford & Worthington). It's unfortunate it took him 28 games to get a feel for his team and to find the best rotation. But I don't think he was holding auditions. He wasn't trying one guy and then going down the list.



He tried guys in different situations and it took 28 games for - what appears to be the final solution - it to solidify. I don't think Bartley was ever in the running to be the starting 2.



I think the biggest myth is that players were auditioning. Rose was tinkering with his lineup trying to find a way to get five new rotational players to mesh with four returning players (Haws, Carlino, Austin & Sharp). He seems to have found a rotation he likes and the team responds to.

He was not trying one guy and going to the next. He started out giving them all some minutes. He gave more to Winder initially. As Winder started to struggle badly, he gave more to Bartley and dropped Winder's minutes. Then Bartley went stone cold. He tried the Carlino experiment. That failed. He tried the Halford experiment. Now he has given Winder another shot. He clearly wants 1 to step up to significant minutes.



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So if he wasn't trying one guy and going to the next, then you're whole premise is mistaken as there would have been no auditions at multiple stages throughout the season.



Unless you want to count EVERY opportunity both in games and in practice as an audition. Rose kept working players in games and in practice until guys finally seized the moment and started performing consistently both in games and in practice.

Gunk wrote:
Seems to me the best way to determine whether a ring was grasped or not is to look at the players' production from a per minute basis off the bench versus as a starter.



At the end if the day the debate is rather pointless. Regardless of whether a ring was grasped in the past or not it's being grasped now and now is what matters. Rose went with Winder and it's paying dividends now as we head into the most critical portion of the season.



We only see games, which is about a tenth of the time Rose sees these guys playing. Who is improving, who is responding better to coaching, who works better with whom, etc is all seen better by Rose.



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I think everyone agrees that making Winder the starter was the right move at that time. Some argue the change should have been made sooner. If I ever find time to post the minutes for the games after Halford became starter, those posters can see that Rose started Winding minutes back up for Winder and tapering them off for Halford well before the technicality of formally changing who was starting.



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SpiffCoug wrote:
So if he wasn't trying one guy and going to the next, then you're whole premise is mistaken as there would have been no auditions at multiple stages throughout the season.



Unless you want to count EVERY opportunity both in games and in practice as an audition. Rose kept working players in games and in practice until guys finally seized the moment and started performing consistently both in games and in practice.

He tried all 3 from the beginning. But Winder got the most minutes at that stage. Game results showed that distribution of minutes to be logical until game 5. Practices are always part of the equation. After game 6, game results no longer supported so many minutes for Winder. His minutes plummeted. Bartley's minutes shot up. Game results supported that move at that time. But Bartley quickly went stone cold. He seemed to be in a race with MC to jack up contested shots. His minutes were cut to near zero. After the brief experiment with Carlino at the 2, Halford was named a starter and his minutes surged. Game results supported that move. I think all of the moves have been logical and appropriate at the time they were made including the increase of minutes for Winder and switch of starters as Halford went cold.