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BB Recruiting Class Rankings Sources

by Cougarbib · 3/8/2014

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Cougarbib
I tried to look up SDSU and UNLV and Y and U and other schools recruiting class trends in the same places where football rankings of all FBS teams are available going back a decade or so.



For basketball, there are 351 teams, but all I can find are top 25 or top 30 lists. Did find one that went up to 90 or so for some years.



BYU has cracked Top 30 lists twice very recently, but did not make top 90 lists most years prior. SDSU and UNLV made more top lists, but not when you go very far earlier.



Anyone know a source that ranks them all from 1-351.



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craigoscarson
ESPN does but you have to be an insider and I don't know how far back their archives go.



Hoops rankings are all based on AAU and they rarely change while a player is a senior, ironically when a player makes the greatest strides. SoCal and East coast cities players get seen more in AAU and get better ratings.



Tyler Haws, Nick Emery, TJ Haws are guys that all performance-wise were in the top 10 in the country as players.. yet none of them sniffed the McDonalds AA game



Brandon Davies was a 2 star recruit his junior year.



Jimmer was a 2 star after his senior year.



Big men get more stars but have the highest failure rate. So if you're tall, you'll get 4 stars because height is hard to come by (Chris Miles was a 4 star recruit) same for (Garner Meads... but like I said, big men fail a lot so you have to have several.

Guards can get the rankings shaft inspite of if you're a really good shooter (Emery, Haws), because you might get lost in the shuffle by guys that can dunk but can't shoot (Demarcus Harrison for example)



The other problems with rankings 1. is based on the # of players you sign that year... 2. they don't take into account transfers, which are huge for programs like Iowa State, Oregon, etc. And in hoops, 1 player can make such a huge difference, I'm not sure that anything beyond the top 20 of recruiting rankings makes a difference, too many players get missed after that.



We also have missions to deal with so good look trying to figure out our trends
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Cougarbib
One trend is clear. BYU has been in the top 30 with the Mika class and next year with Haws and Dastrup leading the way. Hopefully this uptick will continue. Harrison was the last 4 star in the drought preceding the 2013 class.





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craigoscarson
Cougarbib wrote:
One trend is clear. BYU has been in the top 30 with the Mika class and next year with Haws and Dastrup leading the way. Hopefully this uptick will continue. Harrison was the last 4 star in the drought preceding the 2013 class.





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It is continuing.. most of our recruiting is complete for the next 4 years.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



if you do the math, we have 2 scholarships to give over the next 5 years and the guys that aren't seniors this year are studs and will be 4 star guys when they're seniors

Zac Seljaas (he's like KC with a jump shot)

Frank Jackson (we don't get his kind very often... lock down defender, hyperathletic and still in the lone peak mold) He completely destroyed Gonzaga signee Jesse Wade last night, offensively and defensively.



btw - TJ Haws is legit and in some ways is a more complete player than his brother... the mission thing really really helps him though, because he needs to fill out 4 star for sure



Payton Dastrup is a legit 4 star player



Jake Toolson might have been the steal of the recruiting class. All he did was score 30 ppg/15 rpg against some of the best competition in the country. He will be a 1st team all state Arizona player and carried his average Highland team to notso average places. In the last game in his high school career, he scored 43 on Dastrups team!

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/jake-toolson/CN4OP_TnEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Dalton Nixon is the kind of 4 we need right now... he can shoot, defend, and pass at the 3-4. He's a legacy player and is nothing but efficient. In the future we need these guys... because not everyone can shoot the ball 10 times a game



Ryan Andrus is a solid big that will give us depth and just scored 26 points on PG last night.. PG might just win the state tourney today over Lone Peak... If AF had anything resembling guards they would have been dominant this year..



You can actually see our Utah recruits play full games here: http://www.youtube.com/user/WATCHitNetwork?feature=watch" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3on9OBg0m3U&list=UUh9hCmSx0o_yLSy1TL3SgAg
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nuk13
Don't forget Isaac Neilson. Thanks for posting the spread sheet.
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craigoscarson
Cougarbib wrote:
One trend is clear. BYU has been in the top 30 with the Mika class and next year with Haws and Dastrup leading the way. Hopefully this uptick will continue. Harrison was the last 4 star in the drought preceding the 2013 class.





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Last years class was top 10.
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craigoscarson
nuk13 wrote:
Don't forget Isaac Neilson. Thanks for posting the spread sheet.


And Jamaal Aytes...



next year 2/5 of our starting lineup could be transfers (aytes, carlino) so how do you chart success vs recruiting ? answer: It's really hard because of all the variables and then BYU has missions...



where is the correlation between the jimmer, Jackson, kc, davies, hartsock team that should have gone to the final four?



stars matter, but not nearly as much as people think.. if so USC and UCLA would matter right now
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SpiffCoug
Dalton Nixon is going to, IMO, fill a Nate Austin type of role.
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Mars
craigoscarson wrote:
Next year 2/5 of our starting lineup could be transfers (aytes, carlino).

Chase Fischer, Wake Forest.
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Cougarbib
Yes - as I said, the last 2 years we have been in the top 30. Much higher the first year. Most of the discussion that followed was about these 2 classes and current roster. Like football, we count players in the class they sign in. We do not subtract them out when they leave on a mission. We cannot count them again when they return.



I realize that, like football, basketball players may meet, exceed, or fall short of expectations. Odds of team success increase as talent ranking average increases.



Personally, I love overachievers. I enjoy every BYU basketball season as I see players and coaches grow.



Although Craig says stars do not matter so much, not sure how he explains all of the excitement about Parker when that was possible, and the LP allstars, Dastrup, etc. I think Craig believes that their will be a correlation between these stars and future - mission delayed in many cases, success.



I also think the lack of stars the 3 or 4 years before that contributed to the drop off we are now climbing back out of.



So, how do we think 2015 and 2016 will look given limited scholarships. Any four stars projected in those classes. I hope we get 1 or 2 each class - might become perrenial Top 25 if we do.



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craigoscarson
SpiffCoug wrote:
Dalton Nixon is going to, IMO, fill a Nate Austin type of role.


We'll be much deeper when he gets to school so he won't have to play early... but he's better today than Austin was in high school and will be better than Austin as a freshman... however his ceiling is going to be lower because he can't play the 5 and will have to be able to shoot the 3 to really help at the 4.



Nixon is solid, but not flashy.. however he is already more polished than a young Austin, young Worthington, or Kaufusi experiment, etc. He's a smart player with a great BYU pedigree (mom and dad). He also is already quite coordinated and fairly strong for his size.
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craigoscarson
Cougarbib wrote:
Yes - as I said, the last 2 years we have been in the top 30. Much higher the first year. Most of the discussion that followed was about these 2 classes and current roster. Like football, we count players in the class they sign in. We do not subtract them out when they leave on a mission. We cannot count them again when they return.



I realize that, like football, basketball players may meet, exceed, or fall short of expectations. Odds of team success increase as talent ranking average increases.



Personally, I love overachievers. I enjoy every BYU basketball season as I see players and coaches grow.



Although Craig says stars do not matter so much, not sure how he explains all of the excitement about Parker when that was possible, and the LP allstars, Dastrup, etc. I think Craig believes that their will be a correlation between these stars and future - mission delayed in many cases, success.



I also think the lack of stars the 3 or 4 years before that contributed to the drop off we are now climbing back out of.



So, how do we think 2015 and 2016 will look given limited scholarships. Any four stars projected in those classes. I hope we get 1 or 2 each class - might become perrenial Top 25 if we do.



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I think there's less correlation between stars and success... the Lone Peak guys are actually underrated. Tyler Haws never got his due in high school, TJ Haws is not as high as he should be, Jake Toolson just went for 30/15 in a very tough league and 6'10" Ryan Andrus is unrated.. In fact the only player who's stars are probably correct is Dastrup and he's underperformed his senior year. That's why they don't matter as much to me. If any of these guy sign with UCLA, Duke, or UNC, they get an extra star... and when you only sign 2-3 guys a year in college hoops each guy getting an extra arbitrary star throws the entire system into whack.



Stars matter more in the top 20 players in the country 1. because there's separation between the 5 star guys and the rest of the country. 2. because if you're the best, you play AAU ball and get seen, a lot ... But after that it's a crap shoot because the rankings are so arbitrary. The top 20 players not only don't come to BYU very often, but they don't all stay in college very long either.



Does Kentucky's greatest recruiting class in the history of college hoops look like a top 5 team? they haven't this season but they were all in the top 20 and on paper were considered as sure fire as the Fab 5. They probably have one shot to get to a final four before several of them leave for the NBA.



All of this being said, your original post was abut the correlation between recruiting class rankings and actual success and I don't think it's as obvious as you think, particularly considering JUCO kids, scholarship limits, transfers, and missions. It's a lot more than simple rankings of high school kids.



Big men with a lot of stars are a higher risk... even 5 star big men can flop or have injury problems due to their size (ask garner meads, jesse pinegar, or david burgess)



Noah Hartsock was a 3 star recruit and a steal



James Anderson was a 3 star recruit and a dud



They both gave you the same score on the ratings





How many of Iowa States current players were actual high school recruits of Iowa State? or Oregon? Duke's 2nd best player is a transfer.



How about the players coming from foreign countries? New Mexico's best player is an aussie and not figured into recruiting rankings..



We have 3 transfers that hopefully make a very big impact next year...



There's simply a lot more to consider with recruiting classes than stars of prep players...
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beauso79
Maybe Nixon and not Andrus is who we need next year. It's going to be a LONG wait for Aytes to become eligible next season. Hey, maybe Sharp gains 30lbs in the off season with the new strength coach and works on his shot...... :roll: With all the guards we'll have next year and having to wait for Aytes to become eligible I would not be surprised if Rose asked Halford to pay his own way thus leaving Sharp on scholarship. A bigger/stronger Sharp would likely be able to contribute more than a guy like Andrus.
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craigoscarson
beauso79 wrote:
Maybe Nixon and not Andrus is who we need next year. It's going to be a LONG wait for Aytes to become eligible next season. Hey, maybe Sharp gains 30lbs in the off season with the new strength coach and works on his shot...... :roll: With all the guards we'll have next year and having to wait for Aytes to become eligible I would not be surprised if Rose asked Halford to pay his own way thus leaving Sharp on scholarship. A bigger/stronger Sharp would likely be able to contribute more than a guy like Andrus.


We can't keep them all. We have over 13 guys that could play next year. Someone has to go...



I'm exactly not 100% sure we ever see Aytes in a BYU uniform. Haven't seen him on the BYU bench the last few games, have seen Nielsen... maybe I'm reading too much into it.



But Winder has proven his worth and Sharp has gotten minutes... but someone has to go... unless Andrus goes directly on his mission like the rest.



Toolson (Virginia), Haws (France) both have their mission calls already, not sure if Nixon has his
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beauso79
craigoscarson wrote:
Maybe Nixon and not Andrus is who we need next year. It's going to be a LONG wait for Aytes to become eligible next season. Hey, maybe Sharp gains 30lbs in the off season with the new strength coach and works on his shot...... :roll: With all the guards we'll have next year and having to wait for Aytes to become eligible I would not be surprised if Rose asked Halford to pay his own way thus leaving Sharp on scholarship. A bigger/stronger Sharp would likely be able to contribute more than a guy like Andrus.


We can't keep them all. We have over 13 guys that could play next year. Someone has to go...



I'm exactly not 100% sure we ever see Aytes in a BYU uniform. Haven't seen him on the BYU bench the last few games, have seen Nielsen... maybe I'm reading too much into it.



But Winder has proven his worth and Sharp has gotten minutes... but someone has to go... unless Andrus goes directly on his mission like the rest.



Toolson (Virginia), Haws (France) both have their mission calls already, not sure if Nixon has his


I didn't see Aytes tonight either........I hope he's still around
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