WCC Tournament

It's crunch time, folks.



As the 2 seed, BYU's first game will be on Sat. We'll play the winner of Thursday's game between 7 seed Portland and 10 seed LMU. We lost to both of these teams on the road. While neither opponent is a juggernaut, they obviously aren't gimmies. Torn on which team I'd rather face. We just finished beating Portland, so guess my preference would be Portland.



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As long as BYU doesn't play just one WCC game, we should be ok. I'm not worried about either team. We got pay back for both losses. But both teams have shown the ability to light BYU up from outside. So BYU can't approach either opponent with anything less than their best efforts.

SpiffCoug wrote:
As long as BYU doesn't play just one WCC game, we should be ok. I'm not worried about either team. We got pay back for both losses. But both teams have shown the ability to light BYU up from outside.ON THEIR HOME COURT So BYU can't approach either opponent with anything less than their best efforts.

Didn't take best effort to beat USD at home yesterday, but they responded and KC should get POW for WCC.

But it's also been "crunch time" for the last five games. All practically must wins. BYU doesn't get lazy now.

Cougs_Rule wrote:

As long as BYU doesn't play just one WCC game, we should be ok. I'm not worried about either team. We got pay back for both losses. But both teams have shown the ability to light BYU up from outside.ON THEIR HOME COURT So BYU can't approach either opponent with anything less than their best efforts.

Didn't take best effort to beat USD at home yesterday, but they responded and KC should get POW for WCC.

But it's also been "crunch time" for the last five games. All practically must wins. BYU doesn't get lazy now.

Since you are winning the bball prediction game, I will defer your insight.

Ahhhhh, a little love. Thanks Spiff. Shout out for Bib who won the football and came close to winning Hoops. Hes the Overall Prediction Beast. Fun contest. Thanks Mods for maintaining that feature.

Cougs_Rule wrote:
Ahhhhh, a little love. Thanks Spiff. Shout out for Bib who won the football and came close to winning Hoops. Hes the Overall Prediction Beast. Fun contest. Thanks Mods for maintaining that feature.

Just want to add my thanks as well for the prediction games. It's a fun feature for some of us old geezers who have seen our better days on the courts and fields pass us by. That includes you Bib ;)

LOVE how this tournament is set up for BYU. Gonzaga and SMC will have to knock each other out. I'm much more comfortable playing a winner of SD or SF after beating portland or LMU. LMU being the team I fear the most on our side of the bracket.



Should certainly get a shot at the zags, who could have a tough games on their hands against the Gaels. Looks like the Gaels purposefully tanked against the zags yesterday.

BroncoBot wrote:
LOVE how this tournament is set up for BYU. Gonzaga and SMC will have to knock each other out. I'm much more comfortable playing a winner of SD or SF after beating portland or LMU. LMU being the team I fear the most on our side of the bracket.



Should certainly get a shot at the zags, who could have a tough games on their hands against the Gaels. Looks like the Gaels purposefully tanked against the zags yesterday.

I am not excited at the prospect of playing USF, but would rather play USF than SMC. Although, I did watch the SMC/Zag game yesterday and SMC looked really, really bad. Complete meltdown.



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Cougs_Rule wrote:

As long as BYU doesn't play just one WCC game, we should be ok. I'm not worried about either team. We got pay back for both losses. But both teams have shown the ability to light BYU up from outside.ON THEIR HOME COURT So BYU can't approach either opponent with anything less than their best efforts.

Didn't take best effort to beat USD at home yesterday, but they responded and KC should get POW for WCC.

But it's also been "crunch time" for the last five games. All practically must wins. BYU doesn't get lazy now.

When Team A plays Team B on Team A's home court, it is a double whammy or worse. Team A usually plays better than its average and Team B usually plays worse than its average. Throw in home cooking from refs and time clock and maybe it is triple whammy. That all flips the other way when they play on Team B's homecourt.



For BYU, this year, in WCC play, the triple whammy has produced huge swings averaging well over 15 points by my estimate. There are 1 or 2 exceptions. Not many.



A truly neutral court should get a result somewhere in the middle. Not the exact middle because things like fans, altitude, travel logistics, team and player experience level, skill level, etc., cause more effect on Team A than Team B.



With either quarterfinal opponent, and even though I think home court affects BYU more than most teams, the swings were wide enough, that BYU should win on The Orleans Center.



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Cougarbib wrote:

SpiffCoug wrote:
As long as BYU doesn't play just one WCC game, we should be ok. I'm not worried about either team. We got pay back for both losses. But both teams have shown the ability to light BYU up from outside.ON THEIR HOME COURT So BYU can't approach either opponent with anything less than their best efforts.

Didn't take best effort to beat USD at home yesterday, but they responded and KC should get POW for WCC.

But it's also been "crunch time" for the last five games. All practically must wins. BYU doesn't get lazy now.

When Team A plays Team B on Team A's home court, it is a double whammy or worse. Team A usually plays better than its average and Team B usually plays worse than its average. Throw in home cooking from refs and time clock and maybe it is triple whammy. That all flips the other way when they play on Team B's homecourt.



For BYU, this year, in WCC play, the triple whammy has produced huge swings averaging well over 15 points by my estimate. There are 1 or 2 exceptions. Not many.



A truly neutral court should get a result somewhere in the middle. Not the exact middle because things like fans, altitude, travel logistics, team and player experience level, skill level, etc., cause more effect on Team A than Team B.



With either quarterfinal opponent, and even though I think home court affects BYU more than most teams, the swings were wide enough, that BYU should win on The Orleans Center.



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The triple whammy is not as whammy as you remember. I have averaged the difference between home and road scores in conference this year.



On the road, BYU is averaging 80.33 points per game. At home, BYU is averaging 83.67 points. A difference of about 3.34 points positive for home games compared to road games.

Good data Hawk. But what happens when you drop the road outliers of Portland (110) pts for BYU in a loss and Stanford (110 pts)?

Those were BYus two highest scoring games, iirc, they were both on the road.



Drop road outliers (Stanford and 3OT Portland) and BYU road scoring ppg is 73.4; with outliers it goes up to 80.2.

Drop home outliers (just to be even, top two scoring games) and adjusted home ppg is 84; with outliers is 87.4.

I dropped the *neutral or allegedly neutral games off the analysis.

These adjusted amounts pass the eye test, IMO

I did try it by dropping the outliers (lowest home & away score, and highest home and away score). The average then jumps to 5.86 points, but at that point you start to run into the too few datasets to have very reliable data.

hawkwing wrote:
I did try it by dropping the outliers (lowest home & away score, and highest home and away score). The average then jumps to 5.86 points, but at that point you start to run into the too few datasets to have very reliable data.

Hey. Out of you, it's always reliable. It's Spiff you gotta watch for the "dam_ lies" ;)

Cougs_Rule wrote:

I did try it by dropping the outliers (lowest home & away score, and highest home and away score). The average then jumps to 5.86 points, but at that point you start to run into the too few datasets to have very reliable data.

Hey. Out of you, it's always reliable. It's Spiff you gotta watch for the "dam_ lies" ;)

You know what they say, there are 3 main catagories of lies. Lies of omission, lies of comission, and lies of PER.



;) :lol: :D

This topic has gotten WAY out of line. I'm about to lock it!

Ya, well , take your ball and go home then. We will live to mock another day. ;-)

SpiffCoug wrote:
This topic has gotten WAY out of line. I'm about to lock it!

Wait. I thought Hawk was the higher power on this site. :whistle:

He did.



But I'm now a TV Analyst on the site. He's still retired. I've gone back to work. He's still resting on his laurels.

I've got to boost my post count, or maybe I can get a job on the MTN.

hawkwing wrote:

Cougs_Rule wrote:

As long as BYU doesn't play just one WCC game, we should be ok. I'm not worried about either team. We got pay back for both losses. But both teams have shown the ability to light BYU up from outside.ON THEIR HOME COURT So BYU can't approach either opponent with anything less than their best efforts.

Didn't take best effort to beat USD at home yesterday, but they responded and KC should get POW for WCC.

But it's also been "crunch time" for the last five games. All practically must wins. BYU doesn't get lazy now.

When Team A plays Team B on Team A's home court, it is a double whammy or worse. Team A usually plays better than its average and Team B usually plays worse than its average. Throw in home cooking from refs and time clock and maybe it is triple whammy. That all flips the other way when they play on Team B's homecourt.



For BYU, this year, in WCC play, the triple whammy has produced huge swings averaging well over 15 points by my estimate. There are 1 or 2 exceptions. Not many.



A truly neutral court should get a result somewhere in the middle. Not the exact middle because things like fans, altitude, travel logistics, team and player experience level, skill level, etc., cause more effect on Team A than Team B.



With either quarterfinal opponent, and even though I think home court affects BYU more than most teams, the swings were wide enough, that BYU should win on The Orleans Center.



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The triple whammy is not as whammy as you remember. I have averaged the difference between home and road scores in conference this year.



On the road, BYU is averaging 80.33 points per game. At home, BYU is averaging 83.67 points. A difference of about 3.34 points positive for home games compared to road games.

that is half of the equation now average points allowed.



I did a simpler way. If we beat USD by 33 in Provo and only by 8 in San Diego, the swing home vs away is 25. I averaged the swings home vs away through two weeks ago in the thread that got locked when I added the next game. I did not calculate the games after that. But USD was a 25 point or so swing.



In other cases, like Pepperdine and LMU, it swung from a loss to a win. So an 8 point loss swinging to a 10 point win would be an 18 point swing.



that was how I calculated it.



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