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Starter Carlino vs Off-the-Bench Carlino

by Gunk · 2/25/2014

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Gunk
Lot's of comments about how Carlino is a better player coming off the bench. Thought I'd take another look at the numbers now that Carlino has played some more games off the bench.



Starting (12 games)

- 29.5 min/gam

- 16 Pts/game

- 5 Assists/game

- 3 Turnovers/game

- 5 Rebounds/game

- 2 Steals/game

- 68% FT

- 28% 3P

- 39% FG



Off Bench (15 games)

- 25.5 Min/game

- 13 Pts/game

- 4.5 Assists/game

- 1.2 Turnovers/game

- 2.3 Rebounds/game

- 1.9 Steals/game

- 65% FT

- 43% 3P

- 44% FG



First off, while Carlino may be getting "starter" minutes coming off the bench, his time on the court has been reduced 13% - about 4 min per game on average.



As a starter, Carlino took 15.5 shots/game, about 1 shot every 2 min. Off the bench, he's taking 9.6 shots/game, about 1 shot every 2 and half minutes. So, as I theorized early in the season, if Carlino just took fewer shots a game his shooting percentage would jump to near Jimmer levels. He appears to read CougarCorner.



His assists have gone down coming off the bench. So I guess that means he's more of a greedy, "me first" player coming off the bench and is less of a "true PG." Seriously, though, this is more likely due to fewer minutes so assists are pretty much a wash.



His turnovers have dropped significantly coming off the bench. His rebounds have also dropped dramatically. It's my theory that many of his turnovers early in the season were due to grabbing boards and pushing the ball up the court. He's grabbing half as many boards as he used and his turnovers have dropped by the same margin. Coincidence? I think not.



He's averaging fewer points coming off the bench. This is likely due to his reduced min and reduced shot volume.



Off the bench, he is a worse free throw shooter. So the idea that sitting on the bench has "calmed" him and he now shoots better from the line isn't true. Off the bench he's getting to the line less than he did as a starter. As a starter, he took 50 free-throws, about 4.2 attempts/game. Off the bench, he's taken 51 attemts, but it's 3.4 shots/game. This means he's drawing fewer fouls than he did at the beginning of the season.



So, is Carlino a better player off the bench? He seems to be shooting better and not turning the ball over as much, but he's grabbing fewer rebounds, scoring less, and drawing fewer fouls.
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rblack
I think the bottom line is, BYU is a better team with Matt coming off the bench.
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Guest
Thanks for the stats, Gunk. I think it's informative that you share it. It got me thinking about the times when Carlino, who is such an excellent player when he's on, was so far off, that he was costing the team wins. So I analyzed the stats over a 4 game period covering the 4 games before he was benched to see how that compares to his starting numbers and his off the bench numbers you posted.



Starting (12 games) *provided by Gunk

- 29.5 min/gam

- 16 Pts/game

- 5 Assists/game

- 3 Turnovers/game

- 5 Rebounds/game

- 2 Steals/game

- 68% FT

- 28% 3P

- 39% FG



Last 4 games before getting benched *as taken from ESPN box scores

24.5 minutes/game

9.75 Pts/game

1.75 Assists/game

2 Turnovers/game

4.5 Rebounds/game

1.25 steals/game

75% FT

23.5% 3p

25% FG



Off Bench (15 games) *Provided by Gunk

- 25.5 Min/game

- 13 Pts/game

- 4.5 Assists/game

- 1.2 Turnovers/game

- 2.3 Rebounds/game

- 1.9 Steals/game

- 65% FT

- 43% 3P

- 44% FG



In terms of this, his game was clearly on a downward spiral, could he have played through it and gotten back to his starting averages? Perhaps, but perhaps not as quickly. Either way, it's clear that the Carlino that got benched was not as good as the starter Carlino or the off the bench Carlino
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Gunk
Good post, Hawk. No question he had a bad stretch...don't look at the numbers for when he started as a 2. The benching at the time was warranted. I just wonder if he should still be coming off the bench. But, if it ain't broke don't fix it.



Something I am curious to see is whether there actually is a correlation with MC rebounding and turnovers. I ran out of time at lunch though. Eyeballing it, I'd say there is. The more rebounds he got in a game the more turnovers he had.



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Guest
I look forward to your next lunch break when you can research the correlation more. That will be interesting to see.
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Cougarbib
Hawk - thanks for posting what my reaction was. Carlino is streaky. So the stretch reported in the OP had the red hot Carlino that started the season masking the Carlino that was made a 2 and then benched. In another thread, where I commented that minor corrections were made prior to losing his job - the minutes trending down at that time show that.



The entire reason for the benching was to invent a strong enough leash to get Carlino to quit taking bad shots and forcing wild half-court bounce passes into a crowd. Carlino is a good shooter when taking good shots in rhythm.



Someone else pointed out that the stats provided do not tell the story about how well the entire team is playing. We no longer have multiple players in a race to see who can jack up a bad shot first out of fear that they will not touch the ball again.



Re the rebounding / turnover correlation - correlation or not, something is backwards about that logic - that seems to be saying this



sheesh, I was forcing a lot of bad passes after I grabbed rebounds, so I am not going to try as hard to grab rebounds because I might make a bad pass.



More likely, Carlino is getting less rebounds because Nate Austin figured out how to grab them. Also, BYU is defending the perimeter better and taking away the three which seems to have reduced 3 point attempts - which would reduce the long rebounds that pop out to a guard.



But - yes - ultimately if he grabs fewer - fewer to turn over.



And it is my opinion that bad shot selection and reckless passes were the two things the leash was meant to correct. Both corrections have occurred. Higher shooting percentage. Fewer turnovers. Maybe playing tighter D also takes him out of rebounding position at times.



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Brayden Green
I have news that might shock you all. They are both the same player... (one of them just has more focus).
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Cougarbib
BlueIsBetter wrote:
I have news that might shock you all. They are both the same player... (one of them just has more focus).


You are definitely on to something here. And the one with more focus definitely is the best one.



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