3 Point Shooting Myths

Scott posted a link to BYU player stats. Hopefully he can pop it here, too. I can't.



BYU does not set the world on fire from beyond the arc. The issue is more volume than accuracy. Do not tell that to the wrong players, though. They will jack up more ill-advised shots and miss.



So who do you think has the highest 3 point percentage? Hint: 50% Ok. Trick question. Tall guy. Really tall. Nate Austin. Trick question. He is 2-4. Hard to know how well his % would hold up with more attempts.



So, not counting Nate - who is the sharp shooter. For mid range shots - clearly Haws. For 3 pointers - surprised me a bit. Some have posted that Haws cannot shoot 3s. He can. He shoots 44.3%. He should shoot more of them.



Winder was next at 39.6%.



Next: The next surprise. As recently as last night, announcers said that is not his shot. KC at 36.8%. And maybe it is not. But he is next highest.



MC at 33.6% and, Halford at 33.3 % - about a tie - not very good. Carlino, by far, has jacked up the most attempts on the team - with 50 more attempts than Haws or Halford. Should take fewer.



Bartley - terrible. 28.1 percent.



Austin should take 1 when he is out front and wide open. Iirc, that is when he hits them. Not so much from the corner.



Haws should take 1 or 2 more per game. With more minutes, Winder should wind up and take a few more - passed up a couple last night.



Collinsworth takes about the right number of shots



Others should take fewer.



I do not think any of them should take a 3 unless it is in the natural flow of things, uncontested, and not Jimmer range.







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http://byucougars.com/stats/m-basketball/2013-2014" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Here's your link.



The standard for 3 is to make a third of them. So all of those players are good. Remember it is worth 3 points. So 33% is the same as 50% of 2s.



If we could have a whole game of Haws just shooting 3s at his current percentage. We would kill everyone. Unfortunately the D would not allow it.

Mirror what scott just said.



33% is a decent 3pt shooter. Carlino's numbers are slightly lower due to the ball being in his hands frequently at the end of the shot clock and having to jack up a desperation shot. He does take a lot of threes though. Surprised Halford doesn't have a better %. Nate austin always has been careful about taking a 3, and he has generally had a decent 3pt%.

34.2

37.6

#49

#2

39.9

35.7

33.5



Some interesting numbers. Let me explain them.



I use TeamRankings.com to get various statistical rankings like FT shooting, 3 Point shooting, etc. They have top individual rankings and complete team rankings for 351 teams. So number 176 is the Median. I will call that average. Median removes the effect of any extreme outliers vs Mean.



34.2% is the median for 3 point shooting. That is why I called 33.3% not very good. It is OK. A little below average. OK if shooting a few, but does not bring fear to my heart when a 33% shooter is well defended or not in the flow. Wide open. In the flow. Sure fireaway.



#49 is BYU ranking out of 351 teams. BYU is tied with SMC. Debunks the myth that the WCC opponents all shoot the 3 better than BYU, although San Diego, Gonzaga, and Portland are ahead of us with Portland being best, then Zags, then SD, then BYU, then SMC. Excellent 3 point shooting conference. I will go take a look at home vs away when actually playing BYU to see if they over achieve their normal average vs us because of poor defense. I know some have and especially at their place.



BYU shoots 39.9% at home vs 35.6% on the road on 3 pointers. BYU has been very cold the last 3 games.



FWIW, USU is ranked #2.



I suspect altitude would affect BYU when they travel and opponents when they come here, but that is wild speculation how much difference atmosphere affects a ball traveling 25 feet with a high arch.



37.6% is BYU 3 Point shooting on the season. BYU is not a poor 3 point shooting team. BYU is not average. BYU is good. Very good imho.



BYU is improved this year vs last year. They were 33.5% last year.



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I wouldn't mind if Austin took a few more shots. He's a very under rated shooter.



Would prefer KC work on his 3 in the off season.



Haws should take more 3s.



Halford is a dissappointment at the 3. I think he's shooting well below his D2 average. He's the 3rd such transfer to disappoint at the 3.



Carlino should take a couple fewer each game. Thing with him though, if he's hot he's hot so defenses have to respect his shot.



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3 point shooting is very streaky. Someone gets hot and it can lead to a loss for us. Then they have a few games where it does not work. The average then balances this out. We suffered some losses where they shot the 3 above their average.



Austin should know if he is a good 3 point shooter or not. If he is good then he should shot it. The D leaves him alone. If he could hit that open jumper, it would really help our O.

scott715 wrote:
3 point shooting is very streaky. Someone gets hot and it can lead to a loss for us. Then they have a few games where it does not work. The average then balances this out. We suffered some losses where they shot the 3 above their average.



Austin should know if he is a good 3 point shooter or not. If he is good then he should shot it. The D leaves him alone. If he could hit that open jumper, it would really help our O.

Agreed. Austen goes so far out of his way not to shoot this season that he is no longer an offensive threat and teams are playing way off on him, being able to sag in on defense. If he opens up his offensive game just a little it will open everything up for our other scorers. I also wish he would put back a few of those offensive rebounds he gets. His first look is to pass out rather than put it back in the basket. He has missed some wide open put backs this year because he's not looking.

BroncoBot wrote:
Mirror what scott just said.



33% is a decent 3pt shooter. Carlino's numbers are slightly lower due to the ball being in his hands frequently at the end of the shot clock and having to jack up a desperation shot. He does take a lot of threes though. Surprised Halford doesn't have a better %. Nate austin always has been careful about taking a 3, and he has generally had a decent 3pt%.

to be fair, a couple of those desperation jacked up 3s are made in the first few seconds of the shot clock... ;)



I kid, I kid..

[quote="Gunk"]I wouldn't mind if Austin took a few more shots. He's a very under rated shooter.



Is the ball getting in to Austin? Is he being encouraged to shoot or is he told to get the ball to to those that are perceived to be better shooters.

Austin is our Dennis Rodman. That's his role. I too think he can shoot, but it's just not happening.

mizzoucoug wrote:
Austin is our Dennis Rodman. That's his role. I too think he can shoot, but it's just not happening.

Yes, but he's embrassing the role a bit too much. When gets the ball 12 ft from the basket opponents literally ditch him because they know he won't shoot it. He's got to take that shot.



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I don't know, Rodman made a living in Chitown on giving MJ and Pippen another shot and cleaning up the D boards.

I'm guessing Nate's attempts are half of last years if not more. Unlike other

Players on this team who have had to be benched bc they wouldn't listen to Rosé (MC, Bartley, Mika and Winder till recently) Nate probably complies almost too much. But who can fault his results? Love that guy. Wish he would have dunked it rather than getting blocked vs Zags, but no complaints here. My guess is Rosé has now told him that if the D sags to shoot it or take it to the rack. It will come back.

It does seem lately, that Austin has slightly increased his effort to score. Slightly.



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Carlino working on that 33.3% tonight. No desperation heaves.

Gunk wrote:

Austin is our Dennis Rodman. That's his role. I too think he can shoot, but it's just not happening.

Yes, but he's embrassing the role a bit too much. When gets the ball 12 ft from the basket opponents literally ditch him because they know he won't shoot it. He's got to take that shot.



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When I was a CIO in Orange County, we had freshly minted Olympic medal winner Amanda Beard come give a motivational speech - local girl - very young - innocent looking.



Staff got to ask her questions at the end. Someone asked who her role model was.



Answer: Dennis Rodman.



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The only way to review offensive efficiency is points per possession. Shooting 33% on a 3pt shot is 1.0 PPP and so is 50% on a 2 pointer.



For the season we are 47.1% inside the arc. We are 36.7% from the 3 point line.



So if we shoot inside the arc we score 0.942 PPP. Outside the arc we score 1.11 PPP. If anything we should consider taking a few more 3's.