BYU Football Recruiting: Has BYU overachieved?

Interesting article:



http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2014/2/11/5397420/byu-cougars-football-recruiting-star-rankings-byu-overachieve



Each team is divided into groups based on the quality of recruits brought in and then it shows how BYU has performed against each of those groups since 2010:



VS FIVE STAR COMPETITION: 1-5. .166 (national average .132)



VS FOUR STAR COMPETITION 2-1 .666 (national average .256)



VS THREE STAR COMPETITION 1-4 .200 (national average .308)



VS TWO STAR COMPETITION 4-5 .444 (national average .500)



VS ONE STAR COMPETITION 24-5 .827 (national average .575)

If you remove the 2010 year where everything was in flux with a Fr QB, the numbers above would be better. Good article.

I wonder if these stats control for the rivalry game. It doesn't matter what recruits you have when it comes to the rivalry game. And we have been taking it in the shorts in that one. Is that why we are 1-4 against three stars?

U is 2 stars, 3 were OSU, TCU and UVA.

scott715 wrote:
U is 2 stars, 3 were OSU, TCU and UVA.

TCU had our number. That makes sense.

Cougarfan87 wrote:
I wonder if these stats control for the rivalry game. It doesn't matter what recruits you have when it comes to the rivalry game. And we have been taking it in the shorts in that one. Is that why we are 1-4 against three stars?

They do not control for rivalry games or home vs away games.



But U out recruits BYU nearly every year even though close enough that we are both in the 2 star category. Stars do matter. Utah out recruits us. They beat us on the field. That is what this article says.



TCU did have our number. They usually out recruit us too, and are well coached.



That is what this article says. Teams that out recruit you usually beat you.



Detail reports like this one should be read, not skimmed.



It points out that - yeah - BYU beat a couple of 4 star teams. One was a 1 point win over an Olé Miss team that only won a few games. The other win was not vs a juggernaut either. BYU did out perform vs the 3 teams in the 4 star group. But the article puts an asterisk by that due to the teams and the seasons they had and tiny sample size.



It concluded that BYU underperformed Vs similar talent. And the sample size is huge. That commentcounted 3 and 2 star categories.



BYU dominated 1 star programs. Always have. See the glory years.



BYU usually has at least 60 programs out recruit them. They usually are a low to mid 2 star average ranked class. Results on the field are consistent. Number of NFL drafted players are consistent - few.



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scott715 wrote:
If you remove the 2010 year where everything was in flux with a Fr QB, the numbers above would be better. Good article.

All teams have years better and worse than their average. That is why the study used a multi-year period.



If you use 1984 or 1996, we look nearly perfect - except the sample size of games vs teams above 2 stars would be miniscule.



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Continuity in recruiting matters. I wonder if more kids going a mission before coming to school will help BYU so guys aren't breaking up their playing careers.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Continuity in recruiting matters. I wonder if more kids going a mission before coming to school will help BYU so guys aren't breaking up their playing careers.

I think it is better to play four straight. Typical recruit should go on a mission up front if they plan to serve 1. Then redshirt to prepare to get the most out of 4 straight years.



I wish, however, for NFL talented players, they could come to BY without feeling peer pressure to serve. Some really want to. Some do not, but do not want to feel guilty about not going. I cannot fault a young man who plans to make a living playing football for figuring out other ways to serve and making it up on the backend like Gifford Nielsen has.



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Cougarbib wrote:

Continuity in recruiting matters. I wonder if more kids going a mission before coming to school will help BYU so guys aren't breaking up their playing careers.

I think it is better to play four straight. Typical recruit should go on a mission up front if they plan to serve 1. Then redshirt to prepare to get the most out of 4 straight years.



I wish, however, for NFL talented players, they could come to BY without feeling peer pressure to serve. Some really want to. Some do not, but do not want to feel guilty about not going. I cannot fault a young man who plans to make a living playing football for figuring out other ways to serve and making it up on the backend like Gifford Nielsen has.



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Other than young men are commanded to go. It is not a wait and see option. Not obeying a commandment is common for all of us. Not going on a mission is like any other sin. It can be repented of, but there are always consequences to choosing wrong over choosing right, and a mission matters. No sugar coating it another way.

Couple of quick observations:



* 13 is NOT a "huge" sample. (combining the vs 2 & 3 stars)

* I would have liked to have seen this from the 2006 season (where Bronco had at least some of his own recruits on the roster) forward. Or at least go back enough years to get a decent sample to make statistical comparisons.

* I would have liked to have seen a comparison of our record versus teams worse than us (1-stars), equal to us (2 stars) and better than us (five stars) with the 95% confidence intervals around those numbers to see if we are statistically different from the national averages. Because, come on, there's no credible difference between 4-5 and the national average of 2 vs 2 stars of 50%.

* Missions are not saving ordinances.

* Missions can be life-changing experiences.

* Giff Nielson did not grow up under the same imperative of missionary work. (and by the way, he's a pretty great speaker and person--not just at GC; he did a fly-in at our Ward's sacrament mtg a couple of weeks back; talked about turning faith to fact and the importance of raising family's right. Was very gracious in shaking my boys' hands and talking to them for a minute).

* I expect the mission rule change to affect on-the-field performance, both for the players, the schemes, and the coaches.

* I have no strong priors on whether the mission age change will affect recruiting per se, but I see an avenue in which it may help: As a result of the rule change, more kids are going (though a large number of that increase is in sisters, there are still more elders going). I expect this will mean that more D1 calibre LDS athletes will go, and go straight after HS. Now, as I understand it, if a player never attends a different school on scholarship then goes on a mission, his LOI as a HS senior is non-binding (Riley Nelson Rule doesn't kick in). And I expect that more will decide to come while on their missions (Taysom Hill) than will decide to leave (Dulan). Now, that said, I expect that some other D1 coaches might also figure this out and tell kids that they're willing to commit to them and hold their schollies while they take a mission...if the kid is willing to commit to the school and come for a year first (thereby locking them down with the RN rule). Of course the coach also knows that once he has a kid for a year, it's less likely that he'll go at all.