BYU 3PT Shooting % Myths

It has seemed that opponents have been killing BYU by nailing 3 point shots like they are unconscious.



Actually, BYU has shot 38.6% while only allowing opponents to shoot 33.8 %.



It appears the opposite because opponents are taking nearly twice as many 3 point shots and therefore have actually made more shots. But their percentage is worse. Maybe BYU should shoot more of them when the shot is open and in rhythm.



But here is where it gets bad and tricky all at once.



WCC is apparently a hot 3 point shooting conference. WCC opponents have shot a higher percentage than BYU from 3. Zags have shot 42.3% this year.



Double whammy in conference. They will take more 3 and hit a higher percentage.



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Yet Portland shot like 60% from 3 point land. When the opponent shoots above normal it could lead to them beating us.

Cougarbib wrote:

It appears the opposite because opponents are taking nearly twice as many 3 point shots and therefore have actually made more shots.



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And therein lies the problem. Shooting 33.8% from 3 is the same as shooting 50.7% from inside the 3. Not to mention the momentum gain from hitting a 3 instead of a 2. BYU gives way too many open looks from the 3.

I don't care what the stats say, we suck at guarding the 3. Just go ask Pangos.



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A better indicator would be what does our opponent's 3 point shooting compare with other games to ours. If they are shooting far more or far better against us, that indicates that we have a defensive problem. Taking a season's worth of stats gives only a general overview, it can't tell the story of any single game.

coachK wrote:

It appears the opposite because opponents are taking nearly twice as many 3 point shots and therefore have actually made more shots.



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And therein lies the problem. Shooting 33.8% from 3 is the same as shooting 50.7% from inside the 3. Not to mention the momentum gain from hitting a 3 instead of a 2. BYU gives way too many open looks from the 3.

The problem is bigger in WCC. They are shooting closer to 40%. Maybe BYU needs to jack a few more threes given that we out shot our opponents percentage wise. We have passed up some open 3 looks. Just do not let Carlino start jacking them up off balance or from Jimmer range.



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Gunk wrote:
I don't care what the stats say, we suck at guarding the 3. Just go ask Pangos.



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Pangos was quiet in the 1st half. Maybe we only suck at guarding the 3 in the 2nd half. ZAGS shoot well over 40% as a team from three all season. Perhaps they are good at it. Unfortunately, most of the WCC is good at it.



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Gunk wrote:
I don't care what the stats say, we suck at guarding the 3. Just go ask Pangos.



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Portland and Gonzaga combined to go 24 of 45 (.533).

In the five conference road games, the home team is 54 of 111 (.486). None has made fewer than 8 threes and four of the five have shot better than .450.

SpiffCoug wrote:

I don't care what the stats say, we suck at guarding the 3. Just go ask Pangos.



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Portland and Gonzaga combined to go 24 of 45 (.533).

In the five conference road games, the home team is 54 of 111 (.486). None has made fewer than 8 threes and four of the five have shot better than .450.

I would consider it an answer to personal prayer if Spiff or someone else with a real computer would make a list of every opponent and what they normally shoot at the 3 range and what they shot vs BYU. My guess will be that some did better and doe did worse. The data would be even more interesting if home vs away vs neutral could be broken out.



I think teams shoot better at home. Home Sweet Home. Fortunately, we have a home streak coming up. I predict an up tick in all shooting percentages for BYU including FT and less over achievement by opponents.



We played Pepperdine and LMU home and away. I am curious if this theory held up there.



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LMU shot 47.1 vs BYU shooting 30.0 at their house. 37.5. Vs 30.0 in Provo. Nearly a 10 percentage point drop for them. But BYU did not improve. 3 of 10 for both games.



Pepperdine 54.2 vs BYU 9.1 in Malibu.



Pepperdine 30.4 vs BYU 41.2 in Provo two weeks later. Yes, they had guys out in Provo, but even the same guys shot lower. Udenyi and Brooks killed us in Malibu. Brooks did not play in Provo. Udenyi stunk in Provo. Nearly a 24 percentage point drop for Pepperdine plus about a 32 percentage point improvement for BYU.



SOS matters. Home vs Away matters.



This is why I expect a miraculous 3 point offense and defense improvement for BYU the rest of the regular season other than those 3 road games. Of course BYU will backslide in the tournament - away from home.





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Just looking at conference games as to how teams have shot FG, 3P and FT vs BYU as compared to their season averages. Bona Nota, I didn't take the BYU game out of their season average calculations.

Game 1 Loyola: -.026 FG%, +.179 3P%, +.016 FT%

Game 2 Pepperdine: -.014 FG%, +.180 3P%, -.044 FT%

Game 3 San Diego: -.107 FG%, -.253 3P%, -.087 FT%

Game 4 Pepperdine: -.051 FG%, -.057 3P%, +.070 FT%

Game 5 Loyola: +.036 FG%, +.083 3P%, -.190 FT%

Game 6 San Francisco: -.041 FG%, +.121 3P%, +.139 FT%

Game 7 Santa Clara: +.011 FG%, -.015 3P%, +.100 FT%

Game 8 Portland: +.020 FG%, +.224 3P%, -.107 FT%

Game 9 Gonzaga: +.059 FG%, +.030 3P%, +.300 FT%



Five teams have shot worse FG% than their season averages. But four of the five who beat their season averages have been in the last five games.



Five teams have shot better 3P% than their season averages. And three of those five teams have been in the last four games.



Five teams have shot better FT% than their season averages. And three of those teams have been in the last four games.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Just looking at conference games as to how teams have shot FG, 3P and FT vs BYU as compared to their season averages. Bona Nota, I didn't take the BYU game out of their season average calculations.

*Game 1 Loyola: -.026 FG%, +.179 3P%, +.016 FT%

*Game 2 Pepperdine: -.014 FG%, +.180 3P%, -.044 FT%

Game 3 San Diego: -.107 FG%, -.253 3P%, -.087 FT%

Game 4 Pepperdine: -.051 FG%, -.057 3P%, +.070 FT%

Game 5 Loyola: +.036 FG%, +.083 3P%, -.190 FT%

*Game 6 San Francisco: -.041 FG%, +.121 3P%, +.139 FT%

*Game 7 Santa Clara: +.011 FG%, -.015 3P%, +.100 FT%

*Game 8 Portland: +.020 FG%, +.224 3P%, -.107 FT%

*Game 9 Gonzaga: +.059 FG%, +.030 3P%, +.300 FT%



Five teams have shot worse FG% than their season averages. But four of the five who beat their season averages have been in the last five games.



Five - BIBSTER NOTE: LOOKS LIKE 6. teams have shot better 3P% than their season averages. And three of those five teams have been in the last four games.



Five teams have shot better FT% than their season averages. And three of those teams have been in the last four games.

I noted that it looks like 6 did better on 3 point shooting. Clear home vs away pattern.



So it swung their way 15 times out of 27 and our way 12 times out of 27. With 6 of 9 games on the road, we fared pretty well. Look for that to even out over the next 9 games. Our defense is not bad. Just average for WCC. I know we all wish we had a dominant defense. I suspect Gonzaga does vs WCC.



I went back and put that proverbial old asterisk on the road games.



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In the six road games, teams went 59-121 (.488) from three. Those teams on the season are a combined 842-2264 (.372) from three.



Loyola, Pepperdine and Loyola all made at least twice as many threes as they normally make. Those three combined to go 35-64 (.547) when their season average is 358-1031 (.347).

SpiffCoug wrote:
In the six road games, teams went 59-121 (.488) from three. Those teams on the season are a combined 842-2264 (.372) from three.



Loyola, Pepperdine and Loyola all made at least twice as many threes as they normally make. Those three combined to go 35-64 (.547) when their season average is 358-1031 (.347).

What are they on the season at home vs away. LMU in Provo breaks the mold, but it seems to be home sweet home otherwise.



BYU hopefully is attempting more threes when at home. Their % is clearly better at home.



If I were coaching I would have a different strategy home and away.



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