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BYU Free Throw Shooting Myths

by Cougarbib · 1/26/2014

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Cougarbib
All season long we have been shocked by poor free throw shooting by BYU. It has seemed like a huge discrepancy vs our oppinents. Actually, it has only been less than a 3 percentage points difference and is more than offset by the fact that BYU gets to the line a lot more than opponents have done.



So - yes it is a factor. Just not as big as it seems.



And there are bigger statistical myths out there to be addressed in separate threads.



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BYULV
I don't think the point is FT shooting vs opponents, but just our team FT shooting ... Which is bad. When you only have three guys you can consistently rely on to hit more than 60% of their FTs, that is a major problem, not a myth. I've lost count of how many games we have lost this year simply because of FT shooting. Would we be a lock for the tourney at this point in the season if we shot around 70% as a team? Yes, no doubt.
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Cougarbib
BYULV wrote:
I don't think the point is FT shooting vs opponents, but just our team FT shooting ... Which is bad. When you only have three guys you can consistently rely on to hit more than 60% of their FTs, that is a major problem, not a myth. I've lost count of how many games we have lost this year simply because of FT shooting. Would we be a lock for the tourney at this point in the season if we shot around 70% as a team? Yes, no doubt.




We are at 68.9% FT shooting for the season right now and trending up. An extra 1.1% would be 5 or 6 more makes for the season. If those were perfectly timed - it would make a huge difference if we had them in our pocket and use 1 right at the end of regulation or OT vs Portland or Oregon. But it does not work that way.



My point is this - we have played our toughest schedule ever and almost never at home and are still just barely under those opponents vs us. So it would seem that we are more average than horrible. Byt, yeah, go back a few years and we used to be elite.



We need to get back to that.



We have home games coming up to make up for 6 out of 9 road conference games. I am betting we shoot north of 70 average the rest of the way. Our number is already rising.



but, I would agree that if we were a 75% FT shooting team, we would have some wins vs so very good teams.



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imuakahuku
One thing to keep in mind. We our shooting so many FT's because we haven't been very good our opponenets know it and so they don't give up easy shots. They trade a near sure basket for shots at the charity stripe. If we made more then they would foul less. And hopefully the law of averages takes over and so they don't foul as much and we get more 2 pt baskets instead of FT's. But if history teaches us anything, its when you get a reputation, everyone seems to stick to it regardless of how things change.
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SpiffCoug
BYU's issues in FTs is when they've been missing them. We've played two overtime games and missed 14 FTs in both games. We've also missed 10 FTs in a 6-pt loss (Pepperdine), 8 FTs in a 2-pt loss (Iowa St), 9 FTs in a 7-pt loss (Wichita). Those are a TON of misses in close games that could have gone the other way with going 70% on just the misses.
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Cougarbib
SpiffCoug wrote:
BYU's issues in FTs is when they've been missing them. We've played two overtime games and missed 14 FTs in both games. We've also missed 10 FTs in a 6-pt loss (Pepperdine), 8 FTs in a 2-pt loss (Iowa St), 9 FTs in a 7-pt loss (Wichita). Those are a TON of misses in close games that could have gone the other way with going 70% on just the misses.




Iirc, we have shot about 500 free throws all season. If we made 70% instead of 69%, that would only be 5 or 6 more points.



75% would have produced 25 or 30 points. Unfortunately, it is tough to control when the misses and makes will happen. I do not have the data, but I would presume that we shoot better at home and worse on the road or at neutral - due to not having intentionally distracting activities going on behind the backboard.



BY has suffered in a number of ways from not playing at home. This is one of those ways.



I do not have the data, but it seems to me that BY has produced 75% FT shooting teams back in the Roger Reid days and the Stan Watts days. Anyone have season by season data?



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SpiffCoug
Cougarbib wrote:
BYU's issues in FTs is when they've been missing them. We've played two overtime games and missed 14 FTs in both games. We've also missed 10 FTs in a 6-pt loss (Pepperdine), 8 FTs in a 2-pt loss (Iowa St), 9 FTs in a 7-pt loss (Wichita). Those are a TON of misses in close games that could have gone the other way with going 70% on just the misses.




Iirc, we have shot about 500 free throws all season. If we made 70% instead of 69%, that would only be 5 or 6 more points.



75% would have produced 25 or 30 points. Unfortunately, it is tough to control when the misses and makes will happen. I do not have the data, but I would presume that we shoot better at home and worse on the road or at neutral - due to not having intentionally distracting activities going on behind the backboard.



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No, I mean, we missed 14 FTs vs Portland and Oregon, if go 70% on those 14 free throws we add 9 or 10 (70% of 14 is 9.8) points in both games - enough to win those.



If we go 70% on the 10 missed FTs vs Pepperdine we add 7 points - enough to win that game.



If we 70% on the missed 8 FTs vs Iowa St we add 5 or 6 points (depending how you want to round) - enough to win that game.



IF we went 70% on the 9 missed FTs vs Wichita we have 6 more points - which makes that game a 1-pt loss.
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Cougs_Rule
Forrest from the trees, Bib. Half truths work for some beings (or so they think) in the universe. So, your point while partially valid is taking in a lot of water.
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mizzoucoug
SMH. Okay, then what is the problem? It's not FT shooting or rebounding or shooting or defending. Maybe it's the color of shoes? Pickle Juice? Too many cheerleader girlfriends? Not enough living right off the court? Powerade instead of Gatorade?



I watch these games and could swear that every chance we have to get back into a game, take a commanding lead, or hold onto a late lead that KC, Mika, or someone else is bricking multiple very important free throws, but nah, I guess it must be something else.
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Cougarbib
SpiffCoug wrote:
SpiffCoug wrote:
BYU's issues in FTs is when they've been missing them. We've played two overtime games and missed 14 FTs in both games. We've also missed 10 FTs in a 6-pt loss (Pepperdine), 8 FTs in a 2-pt loss (Iowa St), 9 FTs in a 7-pt loss (Wichita). Those are a TON of misses in close games that could have gone the other way with going 70% on just the misses.




Iirc, we have shot about 500 free throws all season. If we made 70% instead of 69%, that would only be 5 or 6 more points.



75% would have produced 25 or 30 points. Unfortunately, it is tough to control when the misses and makes will happen. I do not have the data, but I would presume that we shoot better at home and worse on the road or at neutral - due to not having intentionally distracting activities going on behind the backboard.



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No, I mean, we missed 14 FTs vs Portland and Oregon, if go 70% on those 14 free throws we add 9 or 10 (70% of 14 is 9.8) points in both games - enough to win those.



If we go 70% on the 10 missed FTs vs Pepperdine we add 7 points - enough to win that game.



If we 70% on the missed 8 FTs vs Iowa St we add 5 or 6 points (depending how you want to round) - enough to win that game.



IF we went 70% on the 9 missed FTs vs Wichita we have 6 more points - which makes that game a 1-pt loss.


yeah - bit math tricks aside, If BY is shooting 69% and then suddenly, on top of that, starts making 70% of the 31% they missed, that would put BY at approximately 90% overall. And yes - we would have won a lot more games if we were shooting 90%. If we can convince opponents to only foul Tyler Haws or Jimmer, we could come close to that.



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Cougarbib
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Forrest from the trees, Bib. Half truths work for some beings (or so they think) in the universe. So, your point while partially valid is taking in a lot of water.




Sounds like you were fooled by Spiff's math trick. Do you really think BYU should be shooting 69% plus 70% of the 31% they have missed? Do the math. 90%. Nobody does that as a team percentage.



And if we were good enough to control when we make and when we miss so we could miss a bunch vs our walkover opponents and make them all vs our tough opponents, we would be good enough to just go ahead and shoot 90%.



Watch our FT% creep up as our home games creep up.



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Cougarbib
mizzoucoug wrote:
SMH. Okay, then what is the problem? It's not FT shooting or rebounding or shooting or defending. Maybe it's the color of shoes? Pickle Juice? Too many cheerleader girlfriends? Not enough living right off the court? Powerade instead of Gatorade?



I watch these games and could swear that every chance we have to get back into a game, take a commanding lead, or hold onto a late lead that KC, Mika, or someone else is bricking multiple very important free throws, but nah, I guess it must be something else.


The problem is this. Once upon a time, FT shooting was a major strength for BYU. Instead of being just about the same as our opponents on average - ie instead of being better than half of them but worse than the other half of them - yes, there was a time when we were usually better than almost every single one of them. Outstanding FT shooting used to make up for some of our other shortcomings.



To an extent, the same has been true on occasion re 3 point shooting and overall FG shooting.



But the way they do and do not call fouls has changed over the years. This killed FG shooting percentage for finesse teams. It seems BYU has tried to recruit more athleticism lately at the expense of FG shooting - like everyone else. Fewer shooters probably results in lower FT shooting as well. We are not elite shooters any more as a team even though we have a Jimmer and Emery or a Haws and not anyone else.



Rules this year were supposed to help shooters this year and did for a week or two. But things seemed to go back to status quo.



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Cougs_Rule
Cougarbib wrote:
Forrest from the trees, Bib. Half truths work for some beings (or so they think) in the universe. So, your point while partially valid is taking in a lot of water.




Sounds like you were fooled by Spiff's math trick. Do you really think BYU'S should be shooting 69% plus 70% of the 31% they have missed? Do the math. 90%. Nobody does that as a team percentage.



And if we were good enough to control when we make and when we miss so we could miss a bunch vs our walkover opponents and make them all vs our tough opponents, we would be good enough to just go ahead and shoot 90%.



Watch our FT% creep up as our home games creep up.



Not really fooled by yours or Spiffs. You are whitewashing the data by not attending situationally what's going on.

As much as I like KC, his free throws, along with MCs schizo-jack-alots, have cost games.

Analyzing free throws and shooting percentage is not apples to apples. There is a reason they are called free. Key contributors are held to a higher standard.



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Cougs_Rule
Cougarbib wrote:
Forrest from the trees, Bib. Half truths work for some beings (or so they think) in the universe. So, your point while partially valid is taking in a lot of water.




Sounds like you were fooled by Spiff's math trick. Do you really think BYU'S should be shooting 69% plus 70% of the 31% they have missed? Do the math. 90%. Nobody does that as a team percentage.



And if we were good enough to control when we make and when we miss so we could miss a bunch vs our walkover opponents and make them all vs our tough opponents, we would be good enough to just go ahead and shoot 90%.



Watch our FT% creep up as our home games creep up.





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Not really fooled by yours or Spiffs. You are whitewashing the data by not attending situationally what's going on.

As much as I like KC, his free throws, along with MCs schizo-jack-alots, have cost games.

Analyzing free throws and shooting percentage is not apples to apples. There is a reason they are called free. Key contributors are held to a higher standard.
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Cougarbib
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Cougs_Rule wrote:
Forrest from the trees, Bib. Half truths work for some beings (or so they think) in the universe. So, your point while partially valid is taking in a lot of water.




Sounds like you were fooled by Spiff's math trick. Do you really think BYU'S should be shooting 69% plus 70% of the 31% they have missed? Do the math. 90%. Nobody does that as a team percentage.



And if we were good enough to control when we make and when we miss so we could miss a bunch vs our walkover opponents and make them all vs our tough opponents, we would be good enough to just go ahead and shoot 90%.



Watch our FT% creep up as our home games creep up.





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Not really fooled by yours or Spiffs. You are whitewashing the data by not attending situationally what's going on.

As much as I like KC, his free throws, along with MCs schizo-jack-alots, have cost games.

Analyzing free throws and shooting percentage is not apples to apples. There is a reason they are called free. Key contributors are held to a higher standard.


I picked 2010/11 at random. Back then, our opponents shot about 69%. Just like this year. Just like usual.



Our opponents have key players with higher standards too. And they manage around players with other strengths but a weakness shooting free throws. Guys like Shaq.



We had Jimmer and Jackson that year. Plus Hartsock and Rodgers. All above 80%. Davies, Zylstra, Anderson, and others were liabilities. We were not just like everyone else that year. We were elite at FT shooting that year. 76.5%.



If you want to beat guys by making free throws, you need to get to the line and then you need to make them at a much higher percentage than your opponents. In that year, Jimmer and Jackson got to the line and made a ton. This year only Haws is delivering.



We are now just like most teams. Average. The difference is clear. It used to be our differentiator in many years past.



76.5 got us a 7% differential vs opponents and that was worth 56 points or so at the stripe and probably made opponents hesitant to foul us as much. 32-5. Killed the Zags in the NBA tournament. Obliterated them. We had elite shooters.



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Cougarbib
I picked 2005 at random to look at FT %.



BY 71.5 vs Opponents 68.9 result 20-9 record.



In 2005, we were only slightly better than our opponents. Good but not elite. Note that the opponents always seem to shoot around 69%.



In 2013/14, BUT is shooting slightly below our opponents because our opponents this year are slightly better than 2005 and 2010 opponents and BY is slightly worse than 2005 - way worse than that elite 2010 team.



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Cougarbib
The guys getting to the line this year are Haws, Collinsworth, Carlino, and Mika or so it seems.



If BYU wants to get back to elite free throw shooting, Haws is already more than elite. The other 3 would need to step it up. Mika and Collinsworth, especially.



On the entire team, only Haws and Halford shoot 70%. They both shoot well over 80%. Maybe that is why Halford is seeing more PT. Get him to the line more. Matt Carlino can't quite seem to get to 70%. He is close. He is a very average FT shooter. Very average shooter period. The average includes all players including the 4 and 5. Carlino is a poor FT shooter for a point guard. And Collinsworth is a terrible FT shooter for a point guard. I have said it many times. We do not have a point guard. Only having 2 FT shooters over 69% is why BYU is just an average FT shooting team. In a crunch - we need to have Haws and Halford play catch until one of them gets fouled. Maybe in a pinch toss it to Carlino if he promises to pass it right back.



And if a miracle happened, and they did, instead of being about the same as our opponents, we would be 76.5% - elite - back to it being a differentiator to make up for our past lack of athleticism. But wait - we wanted more athleticism. Been recruiting it.



Note that the more athletic teams usually are not elite free throw shooting teams.



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scott715
Another factor not mentioned, a lot of those misses were the front end of a 1 and 1. Make the first one we get to shot more free throws. So it could be even more points.
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BYULV
Bib, so after watching the games this season, you can't see where one or two more FT makes gives us a win? We easily win 2-3 more games with just slightly better FT shooting, probably would have only taken 70% as a team.
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Cougs_Rule
scott715 wrote:
Another factor not mentioned, a lot of those misses were the front end of a 1 and 1. Make the first one we get to shot more free throws. So it could be even more points.


Bingo. Context. "Put that in your (stats)book." :)
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