Byu's main BBall problem (nearly halfway through the season)

Here is BYU's main problem (and it won't be a surprise to anyone watching the games):



They are scoring the 2 and giving up the 3. (Or only scoring 1 of 2 from the line... :gross: )



They could shoot as well as the team they are defending and still lose the back and forth battle, because teams are shooting an unprecedented rate from behind the line. The only people from BYU that can score the 3 don't do so consistently enough (Carlino, Haws, and Halford).



Their 3-2 zone sucks. It is just really, really bad. That is the whole problem of this team.

I have been saying for a year and a half that Austin needed to be in the starting lineup, but now that I see the results in this starting lineup I am not so sure. I am not saying that he doesn't *deserve* to be in the lineup. The kid has mad hustle and work ethic. But he doesn't really have any offensive impact and the points aren't coming from inside, and even on the inside he isn't a defensive menace to people driving in. I like Austin, and I am not bagging on him. And he isn't the main problem. If our guards could play zone (or man would be even better), he would be fine for us.



Now to the main finger pointing part of the post. The guard/forward position. Carlino is a great man defender, but just okay at zone (goes under screens instead of over, etc). Haws can't guard shooting guards, and can't play zone. KColl is a step slow for the outside shot.



So here is what I think they should do (wherever personnel would allow them):

Insert Halford into the starting lineup as a shooting guard and take Austin out and play man. Slide KC down to 4, and play small. KC actually can play PF, I have been watching him body up to people, and he is great at rebounding and boxing out. Play man. This would allow Haws to guard small forwards instead of shooting guards, and there is a greater chance that he will keep up.



PG - Carlino

SG - Halford

SF - Haws

PF - KColl

C - Mika

6th man: Austin (comes off bench for foul trouble, or 8 minutes in. Whichever comes first).



This way BYU could have a big man coming off the bench (don't have one in worthington or sharp) and can play a little harder than normal. Also, KC going against a PF (if they were playing man on us) would be easy buckets. Halford and Carlino could keep the pace up in transition. Obviously this won't work against teams starting 2 7 footers, but how many of those are there in the WCC? This is about winning out, winning the tourney and getting an NCAA invite. We can adjust rosters back at anytime that we need to, but I believe this needs to be the starting lineup and we HAVE to go man defense. This team gets blown out of the water early on 3's and teams are exploiting their bad zone defense.

Unfortunately it's not an unprecedented rate. BYU's problems are shooting on offense.



2013-14 Defensive FG%: 41.2% 3PFG: 32.0%

2012-13 Defensive FG%: 42.3% 3PFG: 33.4%

2011-12 Defensive FG%: 41.3% 3PFG: 30.8%

2010-11 Defensive FG%: 41.3% 3PFG: 33.3%

2009-10 Defensive FG%: 40.6% 3PFG: 33.2%

2008-09 Defensive FG%: 40.7% 3PFG: 30.1%



BYU's defensive numbers are about where they have been for the last half decade plus. The problems are on offense where BYU hasn't reliable shooting for several years now.

2013-14 Offensive FG%: 46.1% 3PFG: 34.3%

2012-13 Offensive FG%: 45.7% 3PFG: 33.8%

2011-12 Offensive FG%: 46.5% 3PFG: 34.3%

2010-11 Offensive FG%: 44.9% 3PFG: 36.1%

2009-10 Offensive FG%: 48.3% 3PFG: 41.7%

2008-09 Offensive FG%: 48.3% 3PFG: 38.1%



The problem is how BYU no longer has a big edge in how we’re shooting compared to how our opponents are shooting.

2008-09 BYU +7.6% in FG% & +8.0% in 3P%

2009-10 BYU +7.7% in FG% & +8.5% in 3P%

2010-11 BYU +3.6% in FG% & +2.8% in 3P%

2011-12 BYU +5.2% in FG% & +3.5% in 3P%

2012-13 BYU +3.4% in FG% & +0.4% in 3P%

2013-14 BYU +4.9% in FG% & +2.3% in 3P%

Part of your post is true, but I am talking about the first half of - let's say - the last 10 games. Sometimes teams cool down, sometimes they don't, but the first 8 minutes of the first half in our games it seems like the other team always has a guy that is shooting 3 of 4 from 3pt line, and a couple of others have dropped in 3s as well putting them somewhere around 60 5 from the line.



We eventually adjust to man with our subs + Carlino, and put a little more focus and effort on D and then we will start contesting shots.



But right now people are getting wide open looks at 3 and making them. at least in the first half.

yeah, i don't have that kind of break down. But I think you're right. It seems teams are starting of insanely hot and BYU is finding themselves behind the eight ball from the get go. Sure the opposing team cools off - maybe even considerably. But BYU isn't heating enough to overcome those 15-20 deficits.

BYU's main problem is SOS and scheduling. They have played more quality teams than normal and way too many road games. In addition to a challenging non - conference schedule, the WCC is slightly elevated over - all even though slightly softer at the top.



BYU does have 5 really big warts.



Poor FT shooting, which was glossed over in the OP and responses. Simply horrible FT shooting. Unexcusably poor.



Poor 3-pt and outside shooting generally.



Poor perimeter defense



Lack of depth inside - when foul trouble comes.



Selfish play, poor ball distribution when numbers are not there on the break



It is not just 1 thing. It is just not 1 person. Call it the 5 big warts vs a tough schedule on the road again syndrome.



BYU is 0-5 in its last 5 road games listed. Add in UMASS and W STATE that are not listed as road games, but we're road games for all practical purposes, and it is 0-7. The Stanford game gets us to 1-7. .



Only home loss - close one to Iowa State.



Confidence killer.



We get 3 in a row at home now before 4 on the road again. These next three games are crucial for rebuilding the team and individual confidence.



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In summary, our offensive woes are killing us. BYU has not been a good 3pt shooting team since Jimmer/Emery/Tavernari days. Same goes for total team FT shooting effort which has cost us several close games. Add to the fact that the team has no lock down defender like Jackson Emery, team has to play zone which is very difficult as the team lacks perimeter speed. If the big two pick up their games (ie Haws and Carlino) couple with fine play from KC and foul-prone Mika and Austin, team will get back on track. They are in a funk and the two losses to Utah and Oregon (on the road) started the tailspin and lack of confidence. One other thing that should get more attention - tendency by Carlino and others to hoist up low percentage shots in traffic or from beyond nowhere instead of working for better shot. The poor shot selection by the lack-of-conscience players results in others becoming discouraged about ever getting the ball. They need better ball movement to get to the solid shooters and play to the hot hand instead of jacking up whatever they feel like.



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Yes BYU COUGAR1



There is a team confidence issue where players have lost confidence in their teammates being unselfish and also in teammates being capable, so several players have tried to force things and make things happen on their own - forcing penetration even when it is not there - turnovers resulting - and taking I'll - advised shots.



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Little scary hearing Carlino say that he is not comfortable at playing the 2. He was jacking shots up like a 2 when he played PG (although he did distribute well, he was also turnover prone). PG is supposed to keep TO to a minimum, get all the players involved, and score when opportunities arise. Problem that I see, is that when Matt was going off (and scoring), he still was the primary shooter. When he was cold, he was either the primary shooter, and not picking up the pace on other aspects. He needs to get his head out of the clouds and realize that he can contribute in other ways when the shot is not dropping (i.e. defense - steals/rebounds, assists, etc.). When his game turns around, and it can, as evidenced by his scoring run in the NIT, team will recover. Until then, Halford seems to be a better option for getting more playing minutes at PG and let KC play slashing/drive to the basket off guard spot.