2014 Will Not Be A Special Season

It just will not be. The 2013 team had plenty of vulnerabilities. We lose a huge chunk of what became a depleted defense. We lose Hoffman from a depleted WR corp. We still do not have a TE, FB, or RB who can catch passes.



Some of this will get fixed and our DB situation should significantly improve. Hill gains experience as does Williams. Hine and Brown gain experience. IDK about OL. Seems overdue. IDK TE or FB. DL and Linebacker holes are numerous considering depth needs.



The schedule is manageable. A 9-3 regular season record is certainly possible.



So do not beat yourselves up expecting something unrealistic.



EDIT: Special Season has evolved to mean National Championship as used by fans who found the 4 year run of 10 or 11 wins to be ho hum. Vocal fans would not even be satisfied by an undefeated season with a BCS Bowl win like Utah, TCU, and BSU had been doing a time or two. It needed to be a NC. Others would still consider undefeated vs a big-time schedule worthy of NC discussion special. A few would take 13-0 MWC type season and call it special. Perhaps the vocal fans would even take a TY Detmer Heisman Trophy season and call it special despite the 3 losses. Maybe a number 1 NFL draft pick would make it special.



For the purposes of this thread, Special means any of the above, even though I thought those 11-2 seasons were pretty special.



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Yup. More of the same.

Disagree entirely. Most of the offense returns with lots of experience including lessons learned by Anae. Defense gets bolstered by number of RMs who will fill in on DL to supplement starters Kafusi, Peck and Marques Johnson. Biggest gap is in LB but that has always been the position that Bronco reloads. The schedule is easier than this year, we should do better than 8-5 which Bronco considered a good record given the loss of so many players to injury, the new coaching staff and difficult SOS. The team can only get better as a result of experiences gained in 2013. I anticipate a range in wins between 9-10 games barring any major losses of key players.



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Never know what can happen. 2014 is our best chance to have a special season. I think we have two special offensive players that can do a TON of damage. Especially a second year in an offense that was at times nearly impossible to stop.



I'm still bullish about the future. I think we'll see improvement the passing game which will everyone better.



One thing that will help the defense is Kaufusi being around for spring ball. He's not playing basketball and its focusing on football.

byucougar1 wrote:
Disagree entirely. Most of the offense returns with lots of experience including lessons learned by Anae. Defense gets bolstered by number of RMs who will fill in on DL to supplement starters Kafusi, Peck and Marques Johnson. Biggest gap is in LB but that has always been the position that Bronco reloads. The schedule is easier than this year, we should do better than 8-5 which Bronco considered a good record given the loss of so many players to injury, the new coaching staff and difficult SOS. The team can only get better as a result of experiences gained in 2013. I anticipate a range in wins between 9-10 games barring any major losses of key players.



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Well actually we agree. 2014 should be 9-3 type regular season plus or minus. No unwinnable games. The "special season" folks on here coined that phrase back when they complained that 10 and 11 win seasons including the Bowl wins was same old same old and no longer satisfying.



Most seem to define it as 13-0 against a respectable enough schedule to get NC consideration or at least a BCS Bowl.



I expect 2014 to be solid barring the unthinkable - injury to Hill or Williams.



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byucougar1 wrote:
Disagree entirely. Most of the offense returns with lots of experience including lessons learned by Anae. Defense gets bolstered by number of RMs who will fill in on DL to supplement starters Kafusi, Peck and Marques Johnson. Biggest gap is in LB but that has always been the position that Bronco reloads. The schedule is easier than this year, we should do better than 8-5 which Bronco considered a good record given the loss of so many players to injury, the new coaching staff and difficult SOS. The team can only get better as a result of experiences gained in 2013. I anticipate a range in wins between 9-10 games barring any major losses of key players.



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You had the basis of a good post till you suggested that Anae " learned lessons".

Special would be a zero or one loss season. 1983, 1984 and 1996 were special seasons. Maybe 1980 (with miracle bowl) and maybe 1989 ( Ty's Heisman). Are there any other special seasons?

I don't see any of the above happening in 2014. I'm not sure THill will become an excellent passer for a number of reasons including Beck and Anae and Oline and field vision. And without a pass game it will be a repeat of 2013. Sorry.

Couple of things about Anae and lessons learned over the years:



Provided below is the offensive production during Anae's six seasons as offensive coordinator at BYU showing QB, Pts/Game and national rank of offense. The offense was ranked in the top 25 four out of six years:



1. 2005 (Beck): 33.0 (24)

2. 2006 (Beck): 36.8 (5)

3. 2007 (Hall): 30.1 (47)

4. 2008 (Hall): 34.2 (20)

5. 2009 (Hall): 35.5 (11)

6. 2010 (Heaps/Nelson): 26.2 (70)



Additional stats include:

BYU earned top-25 NCAA offensive statistical rankings in different categories 28 times. The Cougars were ranked in the top 25 in third-down efficiency in each of Anae's six seasons, including a No. 1 ranking in 2009. BYU was No. 2 in the country in that category in 2006 and 2008. The Cougars achieved a top-6 passing ranking three times — in 2005, 2006 and 2008.



In 2011, the AZ Wildcats were a team in disarray and finished 4-8 as Anae was Assistant Coach to Stoops. He was the only coach from Mike Stoops’ staff to be retained by Rich Rodriguez who is also one of the best offensive minds in college football. In 2012, the team improved to 8-5 (including a 49-48 bowl game win over NV) and he helped them to a No. 7 ranking in total offense. The team averaged 83.2 plays/game, 526.2 yards/game and 6.3 yards/play.



BYU's 2013 team was breaking in a new O coaching staff, OL and a new starting QB and lost quality WRs and TEs to injury (I.e. M. Mathews, Mahina, Apo, etc.). The team averaged 30.15 pts/game, ran the highest number of plays/game than any team in the country, and averaged 493.6 yds/game, and 5.8 yds/play.



Given the returning cast on O in 2014, I expect improvement in a number of phases as evidenced by his history of performance and the experience of the players in the GFGH concept.

GFGH in 2014 will flame out just like in 2013 and just like Dave Roses burn and churn Offense this year.

Anae would do well to go back to his old offense. BYU does not have the depth nor the deep threat or TE to accomplish his goals. I don't care if Rich Rod (wait, is he still coaching? Didnt hear a stinking thing about his "amazing" offense. Maybe it got worse with Anaes departure? NOT.)

Further, this GFGH offense is diametrically opposed to Broncos historical goals of ball control offense and bend don't break D. I don't know why Bronco has compromised his defense, defensive outcome, players, etc, etc. Maybe Bronco got the "trust me" speech at Anaes hiring? Maybe Bronco's fantasies of the running qb was just too tempting?



Old Bronco, during Anaes first go, was all about Turnover margin and 3rd down conversion rates, Dink and DOINK, TE, etc, etc.



I predict a lackluster spring. The boys are tired and burned out and not excited to get back to this smoke and mirror offense. THill is filled with loving thoughts, The D has lost its entire core at LB and a bunch of RMs and freshies filling in. I will still attend spring scrimmage/open practice (though I predict a cancelled scrimmage this year--"Oline injured and thin" and in disarray) hoping to find a glimmer of hope in Kurtz and maybe some fairy dust will rise a TE out of nowhere.

I just don't see a special season in 2014. ALOT of fans don't. Maybe some saying will emerge again this year in desperate attempt to raise ticket sales, such as: "Trust will Rise Again" or "just wait and see" or "Anae, the new innovator" or "Go Faster, Go Harder" or, "It will work this time." or "it always takes at least six months and one year" or "Experienced and proud" Or "rise up from the ashes." I think you get the picture.

I agree it won't be special unless BM learns to beat top competition. We have not beaten a top team in years, we can't beat the Utes......no the Texas win does not count as they will not even end the year ranked. I think we will continue to do what we have done, beat the majority of the lesser teams we play nad beat a quality opponent every 3-5 years.

The offense will improve slightly to significantly depending on OL

The defense will change strengths and weaknesses, will not improve over-all, may dip slightly, but look slightly better due to a more forgiving schedule.



The more forgiving schedule will make both O and D look better.



Special Teams is a big ?



Punt Returner and Kicker gone. Punter still looking shaky at times. We should be able to find a punt returner. The punter should improve. I forget whether we need to replace our long-snapper.



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You could say this at the end of every year and be right 90+% of the time. No one could have predicted that BYU would have a "special" year in 1984. They had just lost one of the best QBs that had ever played college football, they opened against the #3 team in the nation with an untested quarterback to start the season. Yet, it was a very special year. Likewise, the next time BYU has a special season, it will probably be a surprise for most of us. Will it be next year? I don't know (and you don't either).

NDCougar wrote:
I agree it won't be special unless BM learns to beat top competition. We have not beaten a top team in years, we can't beat the Utes......no the Texas win does not count as they will not even end the year ranked. I think we will continue to do what we have done, beat the majority of the lesser teams we play nad beat a quality opponent every 3-5 years.

I posted this before and will again:



http://www.loyalcougars.com/2013/09/11/byu-football/1001-bronco-mendenhall-big-wins-lavell-edwards/


BroncoLavellKylePercent1.png

Lavell is a prophet amongst us. Untouchable. Legend. Has done more for us save Jesus and Joseph Smith. Yet, look at how Bronco compares. Look at how he has done against teams that finished in Top 25. Right on par with Mr. Untouchable. Not too far behind Whittingham. Look at how how ALL teams have EVER faced against top 25:



https://sites.google.com/site/collegefootballhistory/record-vs-ranked-teams-final-polls



I get the feeling that fans expect Bronco to go .750 against Top 25. No team (that means none as in ZERO or 0) has a .500 record against teams that finished in Top 25. Bronco's record would put him at about #30 (we're comparing one coach's record to an entire program's record so not apples to apples).



We're not Alabama where you fire a coach for winning 10 games. I also posted this in another thread:



http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-football/2013/12/30/5250508/byu-cougars-football-should-bronco-mendenhall-era-be-replaced-fire



I definitely want to see improvements, but I'm nowhere near the fire Bronco camp.

BYUfan4ever, I am not saying to fire him....but he needs to win big games.



Regarding Lavell, when you finish in the top 10 multiple times, win a national championship, produce a Heisman winner, have coaching tree that goes to the top of NFL and college ranks you are a legend. Not sure BM has done any of those and may not. I am not throwing in the towel on BM but he needs to win some big games vs top teams.



Regarding bowl games, tough to compare the bowl system of the Lavell's era vs today. We have played much easier teams vs Lavell's era.

Bronco wins big games just as often as Lavell did.

byufan4ever wrote:
Bronco wins big games just as often as Lavell did.

Like who? I can't think of many teams who finished in the top 10/15 that BM has beaten. BM beat OU in a unique year for OU and I don't believe they finished in the top 10, other than that who have they beaten......TCU years ago?



Lavell took over BYU with no history or football success EVER and built them from nothing and became an inovator and built a program. BM had a huge job to fixt the program from the Crowton years, but they were well known and inherited very good offensive weapons and was rebuilding (this means the program was built...by Lavell, it had a name and brand). BM has struggled with coaching staff issues, Lavell had success in picking the right people (look at the coaching tree) and putting players he recruited in the NFL. Different decades and different times, but still there is no comparison in the two.



Lavell is known nation wide by top coaches of his time and was known as a top coach when he coached. BM is known as a decent coach who struggles in big games (look at Utah)....he is John Cooper of Ohio State, runs a good program and won but had a hard time getting over the hump.



We may have to disagree, but you are comparing apples to oranges....different decades, different points in a program (Lavell took over a dumpster program that not many people followed), coaching tree success (this is part of coaching success), players developed/recruited in the NFL and different results (Lavell has more big wins, how is BM vs the top 10?).

Lavell is a legend and was before my time for the most part but I by no means think he was absolutely incredible, especially towards the end. Is it too much to ask for slightly better performance from Bronco than what Lavell provided, especially in this new era of BCS and playoffs?



In addition, I think judging Bronco by the past 4 years is more fair since the first 6 years he was mostly coaching Crowton's recruits.



It is sad going into 2014 with a very winnable schedule with this attitude that the year won't be special. The fun of football is the HOPE that the year COULD be special, yet Bronco has removed that confidence in the program over these past 4 years. That is why I say one more year to bring back hope in the program or it will be time to start looking for a replacement.



And to pre-emptively prepare against attacks, yes I am disappointed in the Bball teams performance this year, including the coaching, but also realize Coach Rose had another cancer scare, and realize that he won't reap his recruiting efforts until 2016. So I still have hope things will turn around.

jacksonman wrote:
Lavell is a legend and was before my time for the most part but I by no means think he was absolutely incredible, especially towards the end. Is it too much to ask for slightly better performance from Bronco than what Lavell provided, especially in this new era of BCS and playoffs?



In addition, I think judging Bronco by the past 4 years is more fair since the first 6 years he was mostly coaching Crowton's recruits.



It is sad going into 2014 with a very winnable schedule with this attitude that the year won't be special. The fun of football is the HOPE that the year COULD be special, yet Bronco has removed that confidence in the program over these past 4 years. That is why I say one more year to bring back hope in the program or it will be time to start looking for a replacement.



And to pre-emptively prepare against attacks, yes I am disappointed in the Bball teams performance this year, including the coaching, but also realize Coach Rose had another cancer scare, and realize that he won't reap his recruiting efforts until 2016. So I still have hope things will turn around.

All fair points. I agree about Lavells last years (1997 - 2000, potentially a bit before) and the decline. I was not alive pre-Lavell, but I can tell you that those who were can attest he built BYU from nothing. BM is John Cooper.....I hope he proves me wrong.

NDCougar wrote:

Bronco wins big games just as often as Lavell did.

Like who? I can't think of many teams who finished in the top 10/15 that BM has beaten. BM beat OU in a unique year for OU and I don't believe they finished in the top 10, other than that who have they beaten......TCU years ago?



Lavell took over BYU with no history or football success EVER and built them from nothing and became an inovator and built a program. BM had a huge job to fixt the program from the Crowton years, but they were well known and inherited very good offensive weapons and was rebuilding (this means the program was built...by Lavell, it had a name and brand). BM has struggled with coaching staff issues, Lavell had success in picking the right people (look at the coaching tree) and putting players he recruited in the NFL. Different decades and different times, but still there is no comparison in the two.



Lavell is known nation wide by top coaches of his time and was known as a top coach when he coached. BM is known as a decent coach who struggles in big games (look at Utah)....he is John Cooper of Ohio State, runs a good program and won but had a hard time getting over the hump.



We may have to disagree, but you are comparing apples to oranges....different decades, different points in a program (Lavell took over a dumpster program that not many people followed), coaching tree success (this is part of coaching success), players developed/recruited in the NFL and different results (Lavell has more big wins, how is BM vs the top 10?).

We were arguing BM's record vs teams that finished Top 25. I belive the graphic and stats from the article do NOT include this season. BM is 4-15 (.211) vs LE's 10-34-1(.227). That is not a huge difference in my eyes. Lavell coached for 29 years and only won 10 games against teams that finished in Top 25?? In 8 years Bronco has 4. I will look up which 4 teams those are, but I am trusting the article to be accurate.



Forget all the other stats, just look at Top 25 record.

cougs rule. i am not sure i agree with you but the one thing I do agree about is that Spring will likely be lackluster. i think gfgh took its toll on the team. they kicked their own butts all through spring and summer and by Wisconsin were done.



i am not a gfgh fan.