How hard was the 2013 schedule?

A lot has been made about how tough the 2013 schedule was. But how difficult was it really? I'm not sure it stands up to being as difficult as we like to portray it to be.



2013: Opponents were 89-71 (.556). BYU played four teams that won 9 or more games. None currently have won 10 or more, but Wisconsin can, and three remaining opponents could reach the 9-win plateau. Four teams had a losing record, the fewest wins of any opponent was two.



2012: Opponents were 84-76 (.525). BYU played six teams that won 9 or more games, including four that 11 or more. Six teams had a losing record, including two teams that won just one game.



Some of the 2013 numbers could change as some teams still have abowl game and could reach 9 wins. So the seasons were actually somewhat similar in regards to level of opponent.

It all depends on what you view as a difficult season.

2013 did not have any unbeatable teams. 2012 did not either, but ND was better in 2012. But here is the point - BYU loses both. It is a red herring to judge difficulty of a season by which one had an even more unbeatable unbeatable opponent here or there. Both are probably a loss and they are only one loss.



I judge difficulty thusly and it probably aligns with the SOS ratings that are out there. Look those up in a week and put them here. 2013 will win. But 2012 was no picnic



The issue for 2012 was the 6 teams with losing records and the much more beatable bowl opponent.



In 2012, BYU only had to face a true challenge - 40/60 to 60/40 type game at most 6 times during the regular season. In 2013, they had at least 8 of these exposure type games. 2012 guaranteed 6 wins on paper. 2013 guaranteed only about 4 wins on paper.



We had a decent team both years. We did not have a great team, and the weekly wear and tear took its toll both years.



another measure - list out who BYU beat each year in order of level of difficulty and who they lost to in similar order. Not much difference in the losses - difference is in the wins.



The 8 win opponent model or a Bowl eligible opponent model tells the 40/60 to 60/40 story better.







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2012



Regular Season Wins



Utah State

@Georgia Tech

Washington State

Hawaii

@New Mexico State

Idaho

Weber State



Regular Season Losses



@Notre Dame

@Boise State

Oregon State

@San Jose State

@Utah



BYU also beat @SDSU in the Bowl Game, but the schedule comparisons were originally about regular season schedules.



2013



Regular Season Wins



Texas

Boise State

@Utah State

Georgia Tech

@Houston

MTSU

@Nevada

Idaho State



Regular Season Losses



@Wisconsin

@Notre Dame

Utah

@Virginia



BYU lost their Bowl Game - but to a much tougher opponent.



BYU beat USU and GT both years reversing home and away. Certainly comparable wins. The only other even slightly impressive 2012 win was Washington State. 2013 wins over Texas and Boise State were superior and MTSU or Nevada were nearly on PAR with WSU. That is why 2013 is more difficult. The 2013 team would have beaten every regular season team 2012 beat. The 2012 team would have dropped 2 or 3 more games to BSU, Texas, and Washington.

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A 9 win ND team will sneak into the rankings.



The 2013 schedule was better than the 2012 one. Only half of the 2012 opponents made bowl games. All but 4 teams made bowl games in 2013.



It wasn't as good of a schedule as it appeared at the beginning of the year, but it was a strong schedule. The 2004 schedule didn't look this imposing at the beginning of the year, but that's the strongest schedule BYU ever played.

Its kind of funny but I wonder if even that "bad" Virginia team is better than most of the MWC competition was.

Fido wrote:
Its kind of funny but I wonder if even that "bad" Virginia team is better than most of the MWC competition was.

2-wins or fewer teams MWC/WAC (only while BYU was in these conferences):

2009 - 1 team

2008 - 1 team

2007 - 1 team

2006 - 2 teams

2005 - 1 team

2004 - 1 team

2003 - 0 teams

2002 - 1 team

2001 - 1 team

2000 - 1 team

1999 - 0 teams

1998 - 0 teams

1997 - 2 teams

1996 - 3 teams

1995 - 0 teams

1994 - 0 teams

1993 - 1 team

1992 - 1 team

1991 - 0 teams

1990 - 1 team

1989 - 2 teams

1988 - 2 teams

1987 - 1 team

1986 - 1 team

1985 - 1 team

1984 - 1 team

1983 - 2 teams

1982 - 1 team

1981 - 1 team

1980 - 1 team

1979 - 1 team

1978 - 1 team

1977 - 1 team

1976 - 1 team

1975 - 4 teams

1974 - 3 teams

1973 - 0 teams

1972 - 2 teams

In the MWC Virginia probably would have been a 3 or 4 win team.

Posted this a few days ago on another thread when Cougs_Rule asked me about our strength of schedule this year. It seems more applicable here.



This schedule wasn't all that hard this year. BYU played (most likely) zero teams that will end the season ranked. It was much harder on paper. Once the dust has settled you have seen that we didn't play any world beaters, and other than the Texas anomaly, didn't win anyone worth shouting about.



Virginia - a loss to arguably the worst school in Div 1. BYU was their only Div 1 victory. ended unranked.

Texas - Beat texas. got spanked in their bowl against Oregon. Ended 8-5 unranked. decent win.

Utah - loss to an unranked, and unbowl worthy Ute team for the 4th year in a row.

Middle Tennessee - we won. Loss to Navy (24 - 6) in their bowl. Ended 8-5 unranked.

Utah St. - We won. They won their bowl game against NIU. Ended 9-5 unranked. decent win.

Georgia TEch. We won. They loss to Ole Miss in bowl game and ended 7-6 unranked.

Houston - We barely won. Yet to play vs Vandy in bowl game. Will end unranked.

Boise St. - We won. loss to Oregon St (7-6) in bowl game. Ended 8-5 unranked.

Wisconsin - loss. Lost to #9 S. Carolina. Was #19 might slide out of ranking with loss.

Idaho St. We won. Ended unranked 3-10.

Notre Dame. - We lost. THey beat worldbeater (6-7) Rutgers in their bowl, Will likely end unranked (9-4), but due to NDame magic, might sneak in.

Nevada - We won. 4-8 bowl ineligible and unranked.



Bowl Game vs Washington - loss, and it wasn't even close. They will end 9-4 and unranked.

BYU played a bunch of solid schools. This is the first year since 1997 that BYU hasn't played a team that won 10 games or more.

All the pre-season talk was really just mislabeled. Tough schedule really meant "lots of brand-name teams." Which is really what we all wanted anyway.