Washington vs Opponent Averages

Here is how Washington compared to their opponents averages (with the Washington game removed from opponent averages calculations.



Boise St (WON)

Held Boise 32.3 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Boise 16.6 yards BELOW their rushing offense average.

Held Boise 96.0 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Boise 67.2 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 17.4 points ABOVE Boise's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 128.8 yards ABOVE Boise's rushing defense average.

Gained 231.3 yards ABOVE Boise's total defense average.

Threw for 51.6 PER points ABOVE Boise's PER defense average.



Illinois (WON)

Held Illinois 3.7 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Illinois 8.3yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held Illinois 72.4 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Illinois 37.6 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 1.4 points ABOVE Illinois' scoring defense average.

Rushed for 57.2 yards ABOVE Illinois' rushing defense average.

Gained 184.8 yards ABOVE Illinois' total defense average.

Threw for 27.6 PER points Illinois' Boise's PER defense average.



Idaho St (WON)

Held Idaho St 22.6 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Idaho St 70.3 yards BELOW their rushing offense average.

Held Idaho St 213.5 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Idaho St 53.0 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 27.4 points ABOVE Idaho St's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 162.3 yards ABOVE Idaho St's rushing defense average.

Gained 276.7 yards ABOVE Idaho St's total defense average.

Threw for 88.5 PER points ABOVE Idaho St's PER defense average.



Arizona (WON)

Held Arizona 18.7 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Arizona 50.3 yards BELOW their rushing offense average.

Held Arizona 108.1 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Arizona 75.3 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 8.9 points ABOVE Arizona's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 94.6 yards ABOVE Arizona's rushing defense average.

Gained 37.8 yards ABOVE Arizona's total defense average.

Threw for 9.2 PER points ABOVE Arizona's PER defense average.



Stanford (LOST)

Held Stanford 0.2 points ABOVE their scoring offense average.

Held Stanford 18.2 yards BELOW their rushing offense average.

Held Stanford 112.6 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Stanford 49.1 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 11.5 points ABOVE Stanford's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 58.5 yards ABOVE Stanford's rushing defense average.

Gained 187.6 yards ABOVE Stanford's total defense average.

Threw for 18.8 PER points Stanford's Boise's PER defense average.



Oregon (LOST)

Held Oregon 2.0 points ABOVE their scoring offense average.

Held Oregon 8.8 yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held Oregon 110.6 yards ABOVE their total offense average.

Held Oregon 47.4 PER points ABOVE their PER offense average.

Scored 4.4 points ABOVE Oregon's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 45.8 yards ABOVE Oregon's rushing defense average.

Gained 26.1 yards ABOVE Oregon's total defense average.

Threw for 2.4 PER points ABOVE Oregon's PER defense average.



Arizona St (LOST)

Held Arizona St 16.1 points ABOVE their scoring offense average.

Held Arizona St 154.2 yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held Arizona St 169.2 yards ABOVE their total offense average.

Held Arizona St 17.7 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored exactly at Arizona St's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 147.4 yards BELOW Arizona St's rushing defense average.

Gained 135.5 yards BELOW Arizona St's total defense average.

Threw for 20.6 PER points BELOW Arizona St's PER defense average.



Cal (WON)

Held Cal 4.6 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Cal 19.8 yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held Cal 69.7 yards ABOVE their total offense average.

Held Cal 7.6 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 1.5 points BELOW Cal's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 95.3 yards ABOVE Cal's rushing defense average.

Gained 165.9 yards ABOVE Cal's total defense average.

Threw for 10.4 PER points ABOVE Cal's PER defense average.



Colorado (WON)

Held Colorado 17.8 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Colorado 17.8 yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held Colorado 46.0 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Colorado 18.3 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 25.7 points ABOVE Colorado's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 133.8 yards ABOVE Colorado's rushing defense average.

Gained 212.3 yards ABOVE Colorado's total defense average.

Threw for 57.1 PER points ABOVE Colorado's PER defense average.



UCLA (LOST)

Held UCLA 7.9 points ABOVE their scoring offense average.

Held UCLA 16.6 yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held UCLA 8.3 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held UCLA 2.4 PER points ABOVE their PER offense average.

Scored 9.5 points ABOVE UCLA's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 61.2 yards BELOW UCLA's rushing defense average.

Gained 75.3 yards ABOVE UCLA's total defense average.

Threw for 23.2 PER points ABOVE UCLA's PER defense average.



Oregon St (WON)

Held Oregon St 5.3 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Oregon St 28.8 yards ABOVE their rushing offense average.

Held Oregon St 19.6 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Oregon St 43.1 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 42.7 points ABOVE Oregon St's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 381.0 yards ABOVE Oregon St's rushing defense average.

Gained 321.5 yards ABOVE Oregon St's total defense average.

Threw for 8.2 PER points ABOVE Oregon St's PER defense average.



Washingotn St (WON)

Held Washingotn St 11.4 points BELOW their scoring offense average.

Held Washingotn St 11.0 yards BELOW their rushing offense average.

Held Washingotn St 70.0 yards BELOW their total offense average.

Held Washingotn St 25.6 PER points BELOW their PER offense average.

Scored 2.0 points BELOW Washingotn St's scoring defense average.

Rushed for 58.7 yards ABOVE Washingotn St's rushing defense average.

Gained 7.8 yards BELOW Washingotn St's total defense average.

Threw for 21.3 PER points ABOVE Washingotn St's PER defense average.



All tolled:

Washington's Defense

Held opponents below their scoring offense averages in eight of 12 games.

Held opponents below their rushing offense averages in five of 12 games.

Held opponents below their total offense averages in nine of 12 games.

Held opponents below their PER offense averages in ten of 12 games.



Washington's Offense

Scored above opponents scoring defense averages in nine of 12 games.

Rushed for more than opponents rushing defense averages in ten of 12 games.

Gained more than opponents total defense averages in ten of 12 games.

Was above opponents PER defense averages in 11 of 12 games.



On average

Washington scored 11.3 points above opponents scoring defense averages and held them 6.1 points below opponentns scoring offense averages.

Washington ran for 55.5 more yards than opponents rushing defense averages and allowed 23.9 more yards than opponents rushing offense averages.

Washington gained on average 116.3 more yards than opponents total defense and held opponents 24.8 yards below total offense averages.

Washington on average was 18.7 PER points above opponents defensive averages and held opponents 29.2 PER points below their PER offense.



Best and Worst Performances:

Scoring Offense: Scoring 42.7 points above Oregon St's & 2 points below Washington St's

Scoring Defense: Holding Boise St 32.3 points below & allowing Arizona St 16.1 points above

Rushing Offense: Rushing for 381.0 yards above Oregon St's & rushing for 147.4 fewer yards against Arizona St

Rushing Defense: Holding Arizona St 154.2 yards below & allowing Stanford 112.6 more yards.

Total Offense: Gaining 321.5 more above Oregon St's & gaining 135.5 fewer than Arizona St's.

Total Defense: Holding Idaho St 213.5 below their average & allowing Arizona St 169.2 yards above their average.

PER Offense: Being 88.5 PER points above Idaho St's average and 20.6 PER points below Arizona St's.

PER Defense: Holding Arizona 75.3 PER points below average and allowing Oregon 47.4 PER points above.



Washington "dominated" three games. Won of seven of eight categories in four other games (one in a loss).

So if you look at how the Washington Defense and the BYU Offense compare to one another against the opponents; and then also compare the BYU Defense and the Washington Offense it doesn't look good for BYU.



Scoring Offense

For instance BYU on average scores 6 points above opponents scoring defense which would be (23.4+6), but BYU's offense scores 31.3 points and UW D holds opponents 6.1 points below their average (31.3-6.1). So BYU is probably looking to score between 25.2 and 29.4 points.



UW is scoring 11.3 more points on opposing teams or 32.6, but BYU is holding teams 8.6 below their average. So UW could be looking at a scoring day of 29.9 to 32.6.



Potential Score: Washington 29.9-32.6 to BYU 25.2-29.4

Edge: Washington



Rushing Offense

UW D is allowing teams 23.9 more yards which would be 298.6 for BYU, and BYU is rushing for 134.1 more than opposing teams which would be 293.9. So BYU could be looking to rush between 293.9 and 298.6 rushing yards. (Which seems like an awful lot to me).



UW is rushing for 55.5 more yards or 213.3, but BYU is holding teams 26.2 yards below average or 216.9. So UW could be between 213.3 and 216.9 rushing yards.



Potential Rushing totals: BYU 293.9-298.6 to Washington 213.3-216.9

Edge: BYU



Total Offense

UW is holding teams 24.8 yards below their total offense which would be 470.6 for BYU, but BYU is gaining 127.6 more on opposing teams which would be 509.1. So BYU could be looking at a total offense output between 470.6 and 509.1 yards.



Washington is gaining 116.3 more yards or 500.1, but BYU is holding teams 25.6 yards below average or 488.7. So UW could be between 488.7 and 500.1 total yards.



Potential Total Yardage totals: Washington 488.7-500.1 to BYU 470.6-509.1

Edge: Push (slight edge to UW due to smaller window?)



PER offense

(BYU is in real trouble here). UW is holding teams 29.2 PER points short or 89.79 for BYU, and BYU is 5.7 PER points below opposing teams or 103.06. So that's an abysmal number between 89.79 and 103.60 staring BYU right in the face.



UW is 18.7 PER points above average or 131.95 and BYU is holding teams 9.4 points under or 143.61. So UW could be between 131.95 and 143.61. Most of that range is above the PER standard.



Potential PER numbers: Washington 131.95-143.61 to BYU 87.79-103.06

Edge: Washington

And thusly they beat who they were supposed to beat all season and lost only to Oregon, Stanford, ASU, and UCLA. Somebody should arrange a Bowl Swap and have them play USC for PAC 5th place honors and let Sark and CP coach.



Then put BYU in Las Vegas Bowl and I will take my guests from Hawaii to Las Vegas.



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Some PER numbers for this game.

BYU's PER this year is 118.99. Their PER defense is 113.25. A difference of 5.74

UW's PER this year is 153.01. Their PER defense is 108.76. A difference of 44.25.



So there is a difference of 38.51 between the differentials of both team's PER difference. In my PER data (going back to 1984), some 380 games, there have been 229 games where the PER differential has been greater than 38.



In those games, the team with a higher PER has a record of 215-14 (.939).



If you just restrict it to the Bronco era, we have 71 such games. With the higher PER team having a record of 65-6 (.915), so slightly better.



Either way guys, BYU is going to have to play MUCH better than they have this year.



If BYU plays like they did in the first three games or last four, BYU will lose - and probably lose big. But if they play like they did in those middle five games, they might be ok.



Of course, the same can be said of UW. If they play like they did in their middle three games, they will lose and lose big. But if they play like their first four or last five, they'll probably win.



The difference there being that UW has two stretches of good play and one poor stretch. And BYU is the opposite with two stretches of poor play and one stretch of good play.

Thanks Spiff. That's ALOT of work.

SpiffCoug wrote:



Either way guys, BYU is going to have to play MUCH better than they have this year.



If BYU plays like they did in the first three games or last four, BYU will lose - and probably lose big. But if they play like they did in those middle five games, they might be ok.

Exactly what I have been saying.



Washington is not a good match up for us. we would have been better of with Oregon State believe it or not.

Yeah, I see this game as a tough matchup for BYU. Maybe one of the toughest matchups we'll have this whole season. In the end, 8 wins with this schedule and new offensive identity is acceptable.

UW is roughly equal to UW. See what I did there?



Huskies = Bucky the Badger.



I realize Badgers had a slightly better record - But, UW had a slightly tougher schedule.



and I do not look at UW as having played really poorly in that 3 game stretch. They played 3 really good teams in that stretch - teams better than BYU.



We only have one way to beat UW - Taysom Hill PER 149+ with over 250 yards.



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Here are the averages of each of UW's 4 losses:



Score: UW 26.8 OPP 42.5

Total Yds: UW 377.3 OPP 475.3

Rush Yds: UW 107.5 OPP 245.0

PER: UW 126.27 OPP 151.52

SpiffCoug wrote:
Here are the averages of each of UW's 4 losses:



Score: UW 26.8 OPP 42.5

Total Yds: UW 377.3 OPP 475.3

Rush Yds: UW 107.5 OPP 245.0

PER: UW 126.27 OPP 151.52

This is why I am worried - these numbers are vs Oregon, Stanford, ASU, and UCLA.



Their offense worries me the most



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