This Team Is Better Than Expected

It is early. Rule changes may help or hurt as it settles in. Teams may or may not figure out how to slow or stop us. We may not alwsys shoot threes and ourside shots this well or free throws this poorly. We may have more or less foul trouble. We may or may not dfend betyer or worse. Injuries may or may not come.



It really is early.



Gonna go out on a limb.



25 Wins or Better



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Their current game plan is to run and try to break down the defense with dribble drive penetration and kick out passes to the wings. Definitely will try to play up tempo as often as possible. However, last year the WCC teams forced them into a slow down, half court game, made them shoot the 3 and picked defense apart at the 3 pt line by taking advantage of their slow to rotate zone defense. Will be interesting to see if they can impose their will upon all teams that they face. They better score a lot of points because I haven't seen them play great defense. They remind me of the run & gun (system) Loyola Marymount of hold (Bo Kimble, Hank Gathers & Coach Paul Westhead) which was the highest scoring team in NCAA history - 1988 - 1990.



However, I love the team's swagger and Carlino's statement about playing Stanford, “We had a good gameplan going in. We came in expecting to win, so we just need to keep building on it.’’

byucougar1 wrote:
Their current game plan is to run and try to break down the defense with dribble drive penetration and kick out passes to the wings. Definitely will try to play up tempo as often as possible. However, last year the WCC teams forced them into a slow down, half court game, made them shoot the 3 and picked defense apart at the 3 pt line by taking advantage of their slow to rotate zone defense. Will be interesting to see if they can impose their will upon all teams that they face. They better score a lot of points because I haven't seen them play great defense. They remind me of the run & gun (system) Loyola Marymount of hold (Bo Kimble, Hank Gathers & Coach Paul Westhead) which was the highest scoring team in NCAA history - 1988 - 1990.



However, I love the team's swagger and Carlino's statement about playing Stanford, “We had a good gameplan going in. We came in expecting to win, so we just need to keep building on it.’’

Stanford will finish the season in the top 50 in RPI and it was at their place with refs that knew it. I don't think this team will have a ton of trouble playing defense, other than they have to watch the fouls underneath and Carlino and Haws can't lock down anyone on the perimeter; however they are all great about getting hands in passing lanes, diving for loose balls, and playing strong. This team is hardly soft, and with Haws if teams decide to slow us down, we have players than can get off shots. The past two years without Jimmer that was tough as Carlino and Haws weren't quite ready to consistently dominate and Davies has shown us that he was never meant to be a 5 and had difficulty with decision making at times. The biggest problem last year was our bench... it was awful. Winder was hurt, Delgado was out of shape, Ambrosino never seemed to have his head in the game, Sharp was in fact our 6th man, Calvert was decent at times. Cusick and Zylstra were D1 tweeners and it showed.



There is no doubt that Bartley can be a D1 player (though he's very very raw) Winder is experienced and confident, KC is getting better every single day and brings a competitiveness and a toughness this team hasn't had for a while, Halford is so efficient that I'm happy when he gets on the court and confused when he isn't on the court more, Mika can be devastating and Worthington is smart and strong (doesn't add much offensively, but he also doesn't make stupid decisions)... honestly instead of being the 6th man, Sharp is now the garbage man... where he belongs, I just wish he had bulked up because we could use him but at the 4 he's very limited, especially in games that matter the most in March and in our big noncon games.



http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=330670252" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; look at the box score of this game... we were probably 2 bad losses from the NCAAs last year and this was one of them

(not sure I would have traded the NIT run we had for a 1 and out NCAA game, but it's always nice to get in the dance)



now look at yesterdays box score

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400506575" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Our bench can play D and they can manage and even potentially extend leads! We're short a body or two (this is why Kaufusi is a good idea) but our bench is not awful and this is why I don't think we'll see a ton of fall off and I don't expect to lose any games where we're favored.

I'm putting zero stock in what I see right now. It is early in the season. There were some pretty serious rule changes this off season that teams, players, coaches and referees are still adjusting to.



I reserve all judgements until we've played 10 games.

SpiffCoug wrote:
I'm putting zero stock in what I see right now. It is early in the season. There were some pretty serious rule changes this off season that teams, players, coaches and referees are still adjusting to.



I reserve all judgements until we've played 10 games.

It is early. Very early, as I indicated.



This is why I boldly went out on a limb.



We have 3 guys that I am confident can make things happen and command attention. My only worry would be injury. And even after 10 games, you cannot predict injuries unless we are talking Riley Nelson in foorball. That was predictable.



Everyone knows what Haws can do.

Carlino clearly is starting as strong as - stronger than IMHO - he finished last year.

KC has already shown that mission rust did not keep him from getting even better than where he left off.



Austin, Mika, and the bench - definitely an improvement over last year. Could not help but be an improvement.



The schedule is tougher or I would predict even more wins.



Last year, I took a lot of heat for predicting that 20 would be a stretch - pre tournament - and that they would not be dancing. A lot of heat. Blue is Better even asked if I had even watched that team.



This year - even though I profess to be a realist as always - I think this is a 25 win team that will dance. Too early to predict anything more than in the dance. Not sure they advance.



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I'm not worried about mission rust on KC. I'm worried about major minutes being played and he running into the proverbial wall in February.



But initial signs are positive.



We have two easy games coming up and then a pretty decent stretch. The Iowa St, Texas, DePaul/Witchita St, Utah St four game set will tell a lot about the team.



Heck even the Utah and Oregon games to finish non-conference play will be good for RPI, rankings and selection perception.

I was at the Iowa State game last year, and it was probably the poorest performance I've ever seen by a BYU team. I hope they're up for retribution this year.

However many games BYU wins this year, this team is miles ahead of last year's team. Davies was a liability (dumb fouls and riding the bench the first half hurt us every game). Zylstra was not a D1 player, Cusick probably wasn't either. Sharp definitely is not.



So now we have a very mature, experienced, and talented guard line (Haws, Carlino, KC), and Mika is already better than Davies was. Hopefully, Austin will develop into a real player, I think he can. I think these guys are going to be exciting to watch...and they're going to win some games, a lot of games.

golong wrote:
However many games BYU wins this year, this team is miles ahead of last year's team. Davies was a liability (dumb fouls and riding the bench the first half hurt us every game). Zylstra was not a D1 player, Cusick probably wasn't either. Sharp definitely is not.



So now we have a very mature, experienced, and talented guard line (Haws, Carlino, KC), and Mika is already better than Davies was. Hopefully, Austin will develop into a real player, I think he can. I think these guys are going to be exciting to watch...and they're going to win some games, a lot of games.

Sorry, I have to disagree with you. No active NBA player was a liability to his college team.

hawkwing wrote:

However many games BYU wins this year, this team is miles ahead of last year's team. Davies was a liability (dumb fouls and riding the bench the first half hurt us every game). Zylstra was not a D1 player, Cusick probably wasn't either. Sharp definitely is not.



So now we have a very mature, experienced, and talented guard line (Haws, Carlino, KC), and Mika is already better than Davies was. Hopefully, Austin will develop into a real player, I think he can. I think these guys are going to be exciting to watch...and they're going to win some games, a lot of games.

Sorry, I have to disagree with you. No active NBA player was a liability to his college team.

Ya, I don't see how a guy getting minutes and scoring points in the NBA is or would be a liability. I would gladly have Davies back or anyone like him on the team. He ran the floor better than any big in the country. Imagine what he'd be doing this season for us.



Did he get in foul trouble, sure, but so far Mika hasn't gotten through the first 10 min of a game without picking up two fouls.



I think Mika is great and has potential, but Mika's low post defense needs some serious work. He's routinely on the wrong side of the defender when on the low block. Against Stanford, Rose put KC on Powell mid way through the second half. No way Powell would have pushed Davies around.



Mika is great, but he's not averaging 18 pts/game or 8 boards a night. After two games, he's at 9.5 pts/game and 4.5 boards.

This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

stuckinbig10country wrote:
This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

I thought I was bold predicting 25 wins and a Dance Ticket.



Seems like you are predicting Elite 8.



That is bold. Very bold this early.



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stuckinbig10country wrote:
This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

Very bold. Only reason I hesitate going that bold is I'm not sure yet about our post presence. This year's bench is definitely better than the 2010 teams.

Wow, we beat one middling Pac team and lookout!

Gunk wrote:

This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

Very bold. Only reason I hesitate going that bold is I'm not sure yet about our post presence. This year's bench is definitely better than the 2010 teams.

Yeah, that is still a question mark. But for those ragging on the quality of the win...come on that's not the point. Basketball is an eyetest sport much moreso than football.



This team clearly has more weapons and plays way more above the rim than last year's team and even they were borderline tourney worthy. With KC, Mika, and a legitimate bench, this team gets 25 wins easily in my opinion. And as I stated in the preseason I fully expect to win the WCC outright.

Not better than I expected. I have high hopes for the team, and have since last year. We have too many good additions, and quite a few additions by subtractions with Rose cleaning house after last year.



I think we could go sweet 16 if everyone stays healthy. If Mika and Austin can get post defense down, and Worthington and the backup players become solid contriubutors we might even go higher. Carlino and Haws have star power, and so does Mika, he just hasn't gotten up to speed yet.



He is about 3 weeks away from making serious noise in the WCC, and then it is lights out from there. I am proud of our boys. Everyone needs to keep right off the field and this season will be special. This is coming from someone that watched every single game straight the last 2 years, and this team is different. The bench can play solid minutes, and that allows the starters to play hard and push tempo. I like what I see.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
Not better than I expected. I have high hopes for the team, and have since last year. We have too many good additions, and quite a few additions by subtractions with Rose cleaning house after last year.



I think we could go sweet 16 if everyone stays healthy. If Mika and Austin can get post defense down, and Worthington and the backup players become solid contriubutors we might even go higher. Carlino and Haws have star power, and so does Mika, he just hasn't gotten up to speed yet.



He is about 3 weeks away from making serious noise in the WCC, and then it is lights out from there. I am proud of our boys. Everyone needs to keep right off the field and this season will be special. This is coming from someone that watched every single game straight the last 2 years, and this team is different. The bench can play solid minutes, and that allows the starters to play hard and push tempo. I like what I see.

Well...coming from someone that's watched every game the last four years...:)



In 2010 we had Jimmer and a bunch of cast mates. We didn't know if Emery would show up. Davies was good for about 10 a night and Noah was solid but nothing to write home about. Abouo was hot and cold.



This season we have Haws who will likely average around 25 a night and Carlino who looks to be shooting for 20 a night. That's about 45 pts from those two about every game (I am being optimistic). That's pretty good. We'll need about 15 a night from the post to keep teams honest and another 15 from the bench.



2010 was a better team defensively, though. Emery played D for him and Jimmer. Abouo was right there with Emery. Noah could hold his own and Davies certainly wasn't a liability.



Carlino is good on D when he wants to be. Haws is average. KC seems legit on defense. Austin knows where to be and can challenge shots but gets pushed around a bit. Mika is still figuring it out and adapting.



Two sides to the game. My verdict is still out. The potential is there. In the mean time, they sure are fun to watch.



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BlueIsBetter wrote:
Not better than I expected. I have high hopes for the team, and have since last year. We have too many good additions, and quite a few additions by subtractions with Rose cleaning house after last year.



I think we could go sweet 16 *IF* everyone stays healthy. *IF* Mika and *IF* Austin can get post defense down, and *IF* Worthington and *IF* the backup players become solid contriubutors we might even go higher. Carlino and Haws have star power, and so does Mika, he just hasn't gotten up to speed yet.



He is about 3 weeks away from making serious noise in the WCC, and then it is lights out from there. I am proud of our boys. *IF* Everyone needs to keep right off the field and this season will be special. This is coming from someone that watched every single game straight the last 2 years, and this team is different. The bench can play solid minutes, and that allows the starters to play hard and push tempo. I like what I see.

Quite a few ifs. Of course it would take all year to answer all of those questions. What are you predicting. Not all of those ifs will be answered with a clear yes.



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stuckinbig10country wrote:
This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

Long season, I'll be happy to get to the dance and beat Gonzaga and St. Mary's at home. I will wait to say a thing about this teams prospects until they leave Kansas City. Our frontcourt is still a problem particularly depth and our guards still can't contain solid penetrators.

craigoscarson wrote:

This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

Long season, I'll be happy to get to the dance and beat Gonzaga and St. Mary's at home. I will wait to say a thing about this teams prospects until they leave Kansas City. Our frontcourt is still a problem particularly depth and our guards still can't contain solid penetrators.

Yes. And FT % has been poor. The schedule is the schedule. Predictions are not perfect. The information is not perfect. What is the range of your expected number of wins?



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