Wisconsin Game Bellweather

I've decided that the outcome of the game this Saturday will turn on the first four possessions.



If the BYU Offense can pick up first first downs (i.e. avoid three-and-outs) on the first two possessions, we will be on track to a good day offensively. If we go three-and-out and force our defense onto the field after less than a minute passing on the game clock (GFGH anyone?), then our defense will be wearing out earlier than we want them to.



If, conversely, BYU's defense can hold Wisconsin to less than 20 yards on each of their first two possessions, our defense should have a banner day. Two failed possessions like that and Wisconsin's "wear-you-down-in-the-trenches" offense will be scrambling to make adjustments quickly in the game to avoid falling behind.



If both those things happen? BYU wins by more than 10.

Nice indicator.



In light of the Stanford win, Wisconsin's focus is likely to be right there: defensive control early on. I agree. If BYU moves the ball early, gets a couple of first downs on the first drive, then BYU will already have the upper hand in the game.



I'll add this: after BYU's first possession (regardless of its outcome), if Wisconsin scores 7 before BYU gets two first downs, then you know the cougs are in trouble.

Sno has it nailed. Especially the first key. BYU must move the ball on offense or gfgh will wear out our defense instead of theirs. This is the only key really. Our D should be OK early. They will also be ok late if our offense is sustaining drives.



To sustain drives, BYU will need to throw early and throw often with accuracy and touch while avoiding penalties and turnovers.



In that environment, I do not like our chances of doing that - especially in the red zone - due to penalties.



GFGH will not wear down the Wisconsin defense unless we are sustaining drives.



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Yzzazz wrote:
Nice indicator.



In light of the Stanford win, Wisconsin's focus is likely to be right there: defensive control early on. I agree. If BYU moves the ball early, gets a couple of first downs on the first drive, then BYU will already have the upper hand in the game.



I'll add this: after BYU's first possession (regardless of its outcome), if Wisconsin scores 7 before BYU gets two first downs, then you know the cougs are in trouble.

Whatever strategy BYU and Wisconsin will pursue was determined and practiced long before Stanford beat Ducky. So, I do not think Bucky called all the players in this morning to watch and discuss Ducky film and then revamp their entire preparation in 1 day.



I am also confident that BYU did not practice something new today because of Ducky, because they are probably all on an airplane watching a movie.



I guess we can hope that Robert Anae does not try to impose his will on Bucky running it up the middle ad nauseum - because that will not work for BYU. Now, Bucky might have some success doing that - but BYU will slow that down until they are gassed.



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Cougarbib wrote:



Whatever strategy BYU and Wisconsin will pursue was determined and practiced long before Stanford beat Ducky. ...[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

That's just it. The defense strategy that Stanford played last night looks a good bit like what Wisconsin does as a matter of routine. If BYU can score once in the first two drives, then their chances are great. I expect this to happen. But if Wisconsin's defense dominates early and BYU can't convert a third down in the first four possessions, BYU will could have trouble winning the game.

I disagree. For me it will be what we do the first time we get into the red zone. do we put up 7 or do we settle for 3. i won't know that after the first four possessions. Our offense move it in chunks and quickly. three and outs are inevitable but not that big of a deal if we punch it in for 7 when we get in the red zone.



Also, I am not as worried about our d getting warn out as many are. Wisconsin takes a lot of time in between plays. so even though our d will be on the field longer they are going to have a lot of time to rest in between plays. more importantly however it is very likely that no matter what the outcome, even if lots of three and outs by our offense, byu's d is going to be defending at least ten, but probably more, less plays in this game than they are used to. so yes, they will be on field longer but they will be defending less plays than they are used to. this combined with bye week and altitude benefit make that worry less of a concern for me.



What I worry about most is our offense. Can we get points on the board. can we score when we get into scoring territory or we will fart it up like usually against the best red zone touchdown d in the country. I worry about GA bringing crazy pressure on Taysom and their front seven manhandling our offensive line. this has to be his strategy. I am just hoping that taysom has enough time to hit some receivers for big plays.



i noticed that many of you have byu winning this game by a fair margin. i hope you are right. i see it as a close slug fest coming down to the fourth quarter.

The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



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Cougarbib wrote:
The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



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The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

jonnylingo wrote:
I disagree. For me it will be what we do the first time we get into the red zone. do we put up 7 or do we settle for 3. i won't know that after the first four possessions. Our offense move it in chunks and quickly. three and outs are inevitable but not that big of a deal if we punch it in for 7 when we get in the red zone.



Also, I am not as worried about our d getting warn out as many are. Wisconsin takes a lot of time in between plays. so even though our d will be on the field longer they are going to have a lot of time to rest in between plays. more importantly however it is very likely that no matter what the outcome, even if lots of three and outs by our offense, byu's d is going to be defending at least ten, but probably more, less plays in this game than they are used to. so yes, they will be on field longer but they will be defending less plays than they are used to. this combined with bye week and altitude benefit make that worry less of a concern for me.



What I worry about most is our offense. Can we get points on the board. can we score when we get into scoring territory or we will fart it up like usually against the best red zone touchdown d in the country. I worry about GA bringing crazy pressure on Taysom and their front seven manhandling our offensive line. this has to be his strategy. I am just hoping that taysom has enough time to hit some receivers for big plays.



i noticed that many of you have byu winning this game by a fair margin. i hope you are right. i see it as a close slug fest coming down to the fourth quarter.

+1, good analysis.

snoscythe wrote:

The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



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The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

Exactly. Also, leaders in the contest post something early to throw off others who might want to closely mirror it to avoid anyone jumping past them. Then they change it at rhe last minute.



Mostly to no avail. BYU is very difficult to predict this year.



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snoscythe wrote:

The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



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The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

There is code in place to discount outliers and ignore extreme guesses. However, some people do tend to put in a default guess, and then forget to change it for a specific game.

snoscythe wrote:

The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

Wow. that is awesome. maybe i need to take the game a little more seriously. i usually just go with my first impression. when i over think it i usually just go in the wrong direction.

Best case scenario:

We score first, get a few stops early, and make it a game. That way they have to chase us and not Stanford us to death but getting 2.5 yards on 3&2 over and over again.

Worst case scenario:

They grind out points with 8 minute drives, we false start our way to 3rd and 20s and punt often.

Dream scenario:

It's something like 34-7 for us going into the 4th quarter and their beloved "Jump Around" tradition falls flat.

Cougarbib wrote:

Cougarbib wrote:
The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



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The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

Exactly. Also, leaders in the contest post something early to throw off others who might want to closely mirror it to avoid anyone jumping past them. Then they change it at rhe last minute.



Mostly to no avail. BYU is very difficult to predict this year.



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well i think i was in the lead every week until last week and i sure never did that. but now that i think about it i was wondering why everybody up top has byu winning fairly easily. maybe you guys are all just being sneaky i guess.

From ESPN



http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9944422/why-miss-chaos-bcs-season

Is anybody in the country more underrated than Wisconsin this season? The Badgers (6-2) were No. 24 this week in the BCS standings, and you could easily make a case that they're a top-15 team. That botched ending (by the officials) in the Arizona State game cost them a chance to kick what could have been a game-winning field goal, resulting in a 32-30 loss on the road. Their only other loss was by a touchdown to Ohio State on the road. Wisconsin gets BYU at home this weekend. This is a team with a quietly solid defense and two really good running backs, but that controversial loss to Arizona State the third week of the season could end up costing the Badgers an at-large berth in a BCS bowl.

hawkwing wrote:

Cougarbib wrote:
The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



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The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

There is code in place to discount outliers and ignore extreme guesses. However, some people do tend to put in a default guess, and then forget to change it for a specific game.

I used to put in extreme outliers in order to skew the prediction preview pane to show BYU winning when a majority of the players were picking BYU to lose big...I think that I discovered that it worked that way against TCU about 5 or 6 years ago. Everyone had BYU scoring only about 6 or 10 points, and I put in a few thousand and BYU then reflected a predicted score average of about thirty or so. I actually left it that way for the game. Like a dummy I bragged about it and Hawkwing fixed it so that it couldn't be done anymore. I'm not entirely sure that I've forgiven him for that.

ABYUFAN wrote:

snoscythe wrote:

The Prediction Game averages show a BYU win and solid offensive showing and solid defensive showing. I suspect some of the predictions will change a few mintes before game-time.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

The averages sometimes get skewed by conspiring geniuses who enter in an outlier prediction (say, BYU 120, Wisc, 0) to push the mean out a bit and lure other players into overly optimistic predictions. The clever predictor would then, just hours before the game, revise to a true prediction.



Not saying anyone does that though......

There is code in place to discount outliers and ignore extreme guesses. However, some people do tend to put in a default guess, and then forget to change it for a specific game.

I used to put in extreme outliers in order to skew the prediction preview pane to show BYU winning when a majority of the players were picking BYU to lose big...I think that I discovered that it worked that way against TCU about 5 or 6 years ago. Everyone had BYU scoring only about 6 or 10 points, and I put in a few thousand and BYU then reflected a predicted score average of about thirty or so. I actually left it that way for the game. Like a dummy I bragged about it and Hawkwing fixed it so that it couldn't be done anymore. I'm not entirely sure that I've forgiven him for that.

I sincerely apologize.



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