One dudes map to the BCS
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There are 13 teams between #27 BYU and the #14 BCS ranking - this is the all-important eligibility threshold.
Last week's results - BYU moved up ONE spot (from #28 to #27)
#26 Virginia Tech lost to NR Boston College. VA Tech is now #40. We now need VA Tech to beat #11 Miami!
#21 Michigan lost to Michigan St. Wolverines are now ranked #31.
Georgia JUMPED BYU for beating now-#43 Florida. Lame. Florida's biggest win is Toledo....Toledo; think about it. Or may be Tennessee (4-5). Georgia is now #26.
What needs to happen:
#26 Georgia - lose at #9 Auburn next week or #42 Georgia Tech in the finale. One loss is all we need.
#25 Texas Tech - has fallen quickly after losses at Oklahoma and to Oklahoma St. Finishes the season at #6 Baylor and #28 Texas. One loss is all we need.
BYU beats #23 Notre Dame and #24 Wisconsin. That knocks out 2 more. Four down, nine to go.
#22 Arizona St. loses one game - #19 UCLA, #36 Oregon St., Washington St., Utah, and Arizona. Take your pick. I would still choose for ASU to beat UCLA but then lose to #36 OSU (who lost to #38 USC and will lose to Oregon), and then one more loss...to Utah would actually help us the most, but I would want to see Mike Leach beat the Sun Devils.
#21 UCF loses to #30 Houston this week! Houston would be a threat to jump BYU. But that really wouldn't matter THAT much, because the American champ gets an auto bid. And Houston would either win the American, or lose one more and fall back behind BYU.
#20 Louisville loses to #30 Houston. This actually isn't that essential, because the American champ gets an auto bid.
#19 UCLA loses to #22 ASU or #38 USC. And then is destroyed in the PAC 12 championship game.
#18 N. Illinois. They actually dropped a spot after a win over 1-8 UMass. N. Illinois could lose to Ball St. (8-1) or at Toledo (6-3). Buffalo (6-2) could knock off the Huskies in the MAC championship game. Only one loss is needed.
#17 Michigan St. A loss to #32 Minnesota (really?) or #33 Nebraska. Would be good. Regardless, a loss to Ohio St. in the Big Ten championship might just be enough.
#16 Fresno St. could easily lose at Wyoming (4-4, pray for snow) this week or at SJSU (5-3). I also think they will lose to Boise St. in the MWC championship game.
#15 Texas A&M. They finish the season at #13 LSU and at #8 Missouri. Could lose both.
The final #14 spot - one of the following happens:
#14 Oklahoma St. - I called my shot on the Cowboys beating then-#15 Texas Tech (who dropped 10 places). We still want to see the Cowboys lose to #28 Texas and #6 Baylor. I think we may want a victory over #10 Oklahoma.
#12 South Carolina loses to #7 Clemson in late November.
#13 LSU loses to #1 Alabama and #15 Texas A&M
#9 Auburn loses to #1 Alabama and #26 Georgia
#10 Oklahoma loses at #6 Baylor and #14 Oklahoma St.
#8 Missouri loses to #29 Ole Miss and #15 Texas A&M
#7 Clemson loses to #42 Georgia Tech and #12 SC
"Jump" risks. #28 Texas, #29 Ole Miss, #30 Houston, and #31 Michigan, #32 Minnesota, and #33 Nebraska are still risks to jump BYU in the BCS standings, should any of these teams win out. The good news is that Michigan and Nebraska still play (so one of them will be eliminated) and Minnesota still plays Penn St., Wisconsin, and Michigan St. (ie, not. gonna. happen.) The success of one of these jump risks would actually cause teams ahead of BYU to fall in the rankings, so it wouldn't be all that devastating. In fact, in most scenarios, BYU is actually helped by Houston's and Texas' success.
#14 BYU (assumes we win and the above list works out) is GUARANTEED a BCS bowl if either:
1) Neither Fresno St. nor N. Illinois is in the top-16 of the rankings and either the Big 12's, ACC's, or PAC 12's second place team is #15 or worse. (ND could do us a big favor by beating the Cardinal at the end of November)
2) Two out of the the Big 12's, ACC's, and PAC 12's second place team are #15 or worse. (see above)
2-per-conference rule could help BYU big time this year because of all the SEC teams still in the top 15.