The Argument--Why BSU Wins

I thought I'd take the time to put forth the argument why BSU wins Friday night.



They'll score in bunches.

- Houston just put on a clinic at Reliant Stadium on how to put points on BYU, and now BSU gets to be the first beneficiary of that film. Prior to Houston, a lot of the defensive shortcomings were theoretical, but Houston put them on film for all to review frame-by-frame. Williams-Rhodes is a Steve Smith-type WR who will be a threat to get behind our secondary every time he is on the field.

- BYU under Bronco Mendenhall has not figured out the HUNH pistol offense, and BSU is hitting its stride after installing the pistol during the offseason. Like BYU's offense, BSU has been growing leaps and bounds after a poor initial showing against UW.

- The QB BYU is facing is better suited to run the BSU offense than Southwick, but BYU has less than one game's worth of film on the once-backup who adds a dual-threat element to the pistol.



Their defense will hold.

- Remember, they just have to hold us to one less point that their offense puts up.

- Their strength on defense--the defensive line, lines up with our weakness on offense--the offensive line. Hill will be running for his life all night long, and at some point the lack of protection is going to cost us a game (again). BSU has 14 sacks in just the last three games. BYU gave up 8 only six days before kickoff.

- They are turning teams over. They have 10 picks this season, and Hill is going to be under pressure.



All of that said, I can see a BSU win somewhere in the range of a 34-31 victory. I'm predicting a BYU win, but I can see this game going south just as easily.

I can't argue with much of this. I do think that BYU's defense will be better against the pass with Bills starting again though.

Good points, Sno.



I notice that Hendrick has played in all 7 Boise St. games. He had 16 passing attempts and 7 rushing attempts before the Nevada game. That's not much, but it's not nothing. (I do not think that means what you think it means...huh?)



A big factor in BYU's favor is the fact that this is Hendrick's first road start...and it's in the biggest venue Boise St. has or will play besides the UW game (by almost double).



Home field advantage was HUGE in 2012. And it will be significant again this year.

The last time our teams weakness matched up vs a teams strength was Utah.

These are off the top of my head; strength of teams we've played

UVA - Defensive or O-Line

UT -Receiving core/QB

Utah-Defensive line

USU- QB,OL

MT- RB,?

GT-Defense, offensive scheme

UH-special teams/TO margin

BSU- Defensive Line??

snoscythe wrote:
I thought I'd take the time to put forth the argument why BSU wins Friday night.



They'll score in bunches.

- Houston just put on a clinic at Reliant Stadium on how to put points on BYU, and now BSU gets to be the first beneficiary of that film. Prior to Houston, a lot of the defensive shortcomings were theoretical, but Houston put them on film for all to review frame-by-frame. Williams-Rhodes is a Steve Smith-type WR who will be a threat to get behind our secondary every time he is on the field.

- BYU under Bronco Mendenhall has not figured out the HUNH pistol offense, and BSU is hitting its stride after installing the pistol during the offseason. Like BYU's offense, BSU has been growing leaps and bounds after a poor initial showing against UW.

- The QB BYU is facing is better suited to run the BSU offense than Southwick, but BYU has less than one game's worth of film on the once-backup who adds a dual-threat element to the pistol.



Their defense will hold.

- Remember, they just have to hold us to one less point that their offense puts up.

- Their strength on defense--the defensive line, lines up with our weakness on offense--the offensive line. Hill will be running for his life all night long, and at some point the lack of protection is going to cost us a game (again). BSU has 14 sacks in just the last three games. BYU gave up 8 only six days before kickoff.

- They are turning teams over. They have 10 picks this season, and Hill is going to be under pressure.



All of that said, I can see a BSU win somewhere in the range of a 34-31 victory. I'm predicting a BYU win, but I can see this game going south just as easily.

Sno. You have confused yourself again. Isn't 34-31 a Utah score?



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the one problem with saying their strengths match up against our weakness is that we dont' know if their qb can complete his passes to these speedy receivers. southwich was okay at it. i doubt that hedrick is any better. i like our chances even with southwick.



ash is a better passer than any qb we have faced. houston's was probably the best and i still think that with bills back they don't put up what they did. the refs helped to.



if our d doesn't miss tackles and look tired like they did saturday i wouldn't be too worried baout them scoring more than 21 points. i have them scoring 13 which may be low. who really knows.

There's no way Taysom lets us lose this one at home. I am supremely confident that we exorcise the BSU demon tomorrow night.

If QB can hit deep passes, BYU will be in trouble. Our safeties will play deep and they will hurt us underneath and occassionally over the top.

On O, if Anae added blitz busters, they won't be able to stack box and blow up THill. Otherwise their D will target THill and he won't save the day two weeks in a row.

I am sure that Robert Anae is aware of any and all conventional wisdom to beat a blitz and will utilize them to the extent has the personnel to do so. Some people on here do not seem to notice that BYU blitzes on occasion too, often with success.



You cannot beat it every time.



You may recall that the formula to beat BYU with Heaps was blitz, even when Anae was gone. Heaps had no escapability and rushed throws under pressure.



Hill still tries to wait until the receiver is open rather than anticipating and throwing to a spot.



Experience will fix this with Hill.



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Cougarbib wrote:
I am sure that Robert Anae is aware of any and all conventional wisdom to beat a blitz and will utilize them to the extent has the personnel to do so. Some people on here do not seem to notice that BYU blitzes on occasion too, often with success.



You cannot beat it every time.



You may recall that the formula to beat BYU with Heaps was blitz, even when Anae was gone. Heaps had no escapability and rushed throws under pressure.



Hill still tries to wait until the receiver is open rather than anticipating and throwing to a spot.



Experience will fix this with Hill.



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No shoot Sherlock. Unless its not in the scheme or playbook or just not practiced or called. I'm pretty certain Cody at least qualifies as "the personel"- big, tall body, great hands. Last time I checked Friel can catch a Few balls also.

I will agree with you that not all blitzes can be stopped. It's not always about blocking. And I have already predicted, as have a few others, that BSU should and will often stack the box and bring the house.

The only weakness with the Dline theory, is that vs Utah, receivers were not catching the balls and THill Started rushing and forcing his throws which resulted in ALOT of inaccuracy under pressure-- which was constant. So, yes, Dline, but.......

If THill has the green light to check off/ audible, and if receivers can read the blitzes and adjust to hot routes-- which all depends on if those plays are even in the book and practiced, then THill can go to next level and not get hammered or hurt trying to play Hercules again.

Our offensive line does pretty well in the first half of the game before they become completely gassed. it seems to me they get progressively worse as the game goes on. but i am not sure about that. would be interesting to see what periods most of the sacks against byu come in.

I heard Jake Kuresa on the radio yesterday suggest that it would be nice to have two Oline units instead of intermittent subbing as needed. He felt the unit needs consistency with each other. Made sense. Maybe not the personnel to achieve that this year. Bt I do think they get gassed during long drives and toward end of game. Although the GFGH hurry-up worked great on that winning drive.

snoscythe wrote:
I thought I'd take the time to put forth the argument why BSU wins Friday night.



They'll score in bunches.

- Houston just put on a clinic at Reliant Stadium on how to put points on BYU, and now BSU gets to be the first beneficiary of that film. Prior to Houston, a lot of the defensive shortcomings were theoretical, but Houston put them on film for all to review frame-by-frame. Williams-Rhodes is a Steve Smith-type WR who will be a threat to get behind our secondary every time he is on the field.

- BYU under Bronco Mendenhall has not figured out the HUNH pistol offense, and BSU is hitting its stride after installing the pistol during the offseason. Like BYU's offense, BSU has been growing leaps and bounds after a poor initial showing against UW.

- The QB BYU is facing is better suited to run the BSU offense than Southwick, but BYU has less than one game's worth of film on the once-backup who adds a dual-threat element to the pistol.



Their defense will hold.

- Remember, they just have to hold us to one less point that their offense puts up.

- Their strength on defense--the defensive line, lines up with our weakness on offense--the offensive line. Hill will be running for his life all night long, and at some point the lack of protection is going to cost us a game (again). BSU has 14 sacks in just the last three games. BYU gave up 8 only six days before kickoff.

- They are turning teams over. They have 10 picks this season, and Hill is going to be under pressure.



All of that said, I can see a BSU win somewhere in the range of a 34-31 victory. I'm predicting a BYU win, but I can see this game going south just as easily.

My view is that a lot of the shortcomings involved a lot of mistackles (KVN missed three that he doesn't usually miss himself) and assignment mistakes. One TD was a KR, one a pick 6, and a couple on huge plays where the QB should have gone down but didn't get tackled. I don't see those mistackles happening this time as the BSU qb is not nearly as big as O'korn. (6-1 180lbs vs 6-4 210lbs). The BSU QB may be faster but our D is built on speed so we should be okay. As for his duel threat, our d faces the top dual threat QB in the NCAA every day of the week which I think is advantage - BYU.

Also, I think our Safeties have shown that they can contain those big play recievers from previous games. BIlls was out so that made our pass protection much weaker from the loss of his talent and all that experience. He will most likely be back there tonight.

BSU relies heavily on the run now and that is exactly what we stop best on D.



As for our O. The line is doing a good job. A lot of the sacks in the last game were on TH. I think he is going to make better reads this game and get the ball off sooner. To expect the Oline to hold for 5 or 6 secs when the other team brings 5 or 6 or 7 is unrealistic.

If we hadn't lost JW after the first drive of the 3rd we probably win that game in the 3rd or early 4th. But we lost him and all accounts are that he will be in tonight. As for Hill's play I say Cap one impact player of the week (took a great performance to be one of the 4 nominated).

I think we win this by at least 10pts. I know we have a bad history with them but we should be 2-1 vs them since we outplayed them in those games but I don't see that happening this time. We already had that game this year vs VA.

Actually, our D faces either Christian Stewart or Billy Green every day--they run the scout team O.



Our D hasn't gone against our 1st team O since Fall.

IMO, BYU -similar to last week- only losses if Boise can have similar non-offensive big plays. They're going to need a special teams touchdown or multiple turnovers to keep up with BYU.

jonnylingo wrote:
Our offensive line does pretty well in the first half of the game before they become completely gassed. it seems to me they get progressively worse as the game goes on. but i am not sure about that. would be interesting to see what periods most of the sacks against byu come in.

of the 8 sacks, 5 came in the second half, 3 in the 3rd qtr, with 2 of those in the same series resulting in the saftey. The other 2 in the 4th, with both coming in the same series evetually resulting in a punt.

interesting analysis, I can almost agree with it but I won't. BSU QB doesn't have the arm to throw behind BYU's DB's, that is the biggest reason Southwick was playing over him, Southwick has the bigger arm. I see the new QB much like Nelson, more willing to take off running instead of throwing. Just about all of his passes last week were dinks and dunks, so I am not worried about the deep ball.



I do think BSU will bust a couple of long runs, their running back is pretty good and the QB is a pretty good runner as well, so I see BYU's defense getting a little tired and allowing a couple of big runs.



I still think BYU wins this handly, 2 scores at least.

blue42 wrote:

Our offensive line does pretty well in the first half of the game before they become completely gassed. it seems to me they get progressively worse as the game goes on. but i am not sure about that. would be interesting to see what periods most of the sacks against byu come in.

of the 8 sacks, 5 came in the second half, 3 in the 3rd qtr, with 2 of those in the same series resulting in the saftey. The other 2 in the 4th, with both coming in the same series evetually resulting in a punt.

I don't think it was necessarily our oline in the 3rd Q. Matthews killed us with those 3 delayed blitzes in the 3rd quarter. He just waited for 2 second until an alley-way appeared and then charged through the hole.



It would have been nice to see a tight end or RB slip screen or delay to counter that. Or just some quicker throws/routes.

blue42 wrote:
interesting analysis, I can almost agree with it but I won't. BSU QB doesn't have the arm to throw behind BYU's DB's, that is the biggest reason Southwick was playing over him, Southwick has the bigger arm.

And this is why i have it byu 27 and usu 13. i don't believe he can. hopefully i am right. i am hoping our d makes them one dimensional which = turnovers. there is of course a chance he is a great passer but i agree, southwick would not have been in front of him if that were the case.

If Southwick really has the bigger arm, BSU is in trouble--they are already #111 in the nation for YPC....



Also, the scouting services out of HS refer to Hedrick as "strong-armed" and a pro-style QB who can also tuck it and run. Neither scout nor rivals lists "arm-strength" as a weakness for tonight's starter, and one lists a strong arm as an asset...



edit: the more I look into this kid, the more I wonder where people are getting the idea that he has a weaker arm than Southwick. Is it just because he can scramble better and he's 2nd string that people assume he must not have as strong of an arm, otherwise he'd be starting? Did I miss something where it was confirmed he has the weaker arm, or is this just some assumption that keeps getting repeated?



Even the BSU offensive staff admits that the only reason Southwick was the starter was because of experience as a tie-breaker, not because he emphatically outperformed Hedrick.



His arm looks plenty strong to me three/four years ago:



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