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Boise State Prediction Thread

by Cougarbib · 10/22/2013

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Cougarbib
Bronco says Bills is practicing and Williams will be back by Friday. Soutwick is out for the season, but BSU has a seemingly capable back-up and he played the entire game vs Nevada Saturday.



Time to get your very specific predictions in.



The new BSU QB seems to be a good runner. His passing was very good, but he did not throw a ton of passes and did not have a lot of passing yards. BSU scored about 35 points.



I think BYU will shut down his ability to run and make him beat us with his arm. They may even bring some heat to try to rattle the Junior - little playing experience. BYU should give BSU more problems on offense and defense than Nevada gave.



BSU 20. BYU 31.
C
Cougs_Rule
I think the payback factor helps mitigate a letdown game for the Cougars. I think they are tired from a track meet first half of season, especially after a very tiring, long, emotional, comeback, road win.

The most significant factor in this game that gives me hope is that this new qb, while speedy and seemingly accurate, is that he does not have a deep threat passing game--BYUs Achilles.

If all they have is underneath stuff, that plays to Broncos strengths of bend don't break.

But i Think the Cougs pull out a narrow win. They are gassed and it could easily catch up with them, and might this week. Next weeks bye can't come soon enough.

28-31 BYU.
Y
YNot
I didn't see the Nevada-BSU game, but I note that Nevada had THREE scoring drives of 12-15 plays and 60-75 yards in the first half. Nevada was up 17-7 at halftime.



But then the Broncos basically shut down Nevada in the second half, forcing punts after 3-5 plays on their first three possessions. Boise dominated the 3rd quarter, scoring 20 straight points and gaining over 200 yards in the quarter.



Granted, Nevada is #119 in the FBS in terms of yards given up per game (498) and giving up 7.29 yards PER PLAY and 36 TDs over 7 games (they give up over 5 TD's per game).



Boise St.'s defense allows about 392 yards per game at 5.18 yards per play and 20 TDs. Compare that to BYU's defense giving up 366 yards per game on 4.76 yards per play and 18 TDS (about 2.5 per game).



For what it's worth - the week after BYU beat the Aggies 31-14, Boise St. beat Utah St. 34-23. It was 34-10 going into the 4th quarter. Boise St. gave up 348 yards to Utah St (221 passing, 127 rushing). Compare that to BYU being up 31-7 going into the 4th quarter and giving up 397 yards (211 passing 186 rushing).



A lot in common, at least statistically, between BYU and Boise St. Boise has padded its stats a little, with games against Air Force (1-6), Southern Miss (0-6), and UT Martin (FCS). But they have played at Washington and at (overrated) Fresno St.



Home field advantage should be a decisive factor, as it was in Boise last year. BYU's offense will move the ball and the defense stop the Boise offense more often than not. But, turnover margin will be crucial.
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jonnylingo
BYU 27, Boise State 13 is how I have it right now. Boise is going to run the ball a lot more than they usually do. We will see if their qb is able to be effective throwing the ball. Having Bills back will be hue in terms of stopping big offensive plays by boise state. I love their running back.



Their front seven will give our offense some problems but i think that hill has a big day throwing the ball again. I suspect our offensive output will look similar to the Utah State game.



I wonder if our special teams gets its act together. they have looked good all year but last Saturday they looked like garbage. hopefully that is fixed going into Friday. I am excited as this is the last good home game of the year already.



This game is hard to predict because their starting qb is out. they ran a bunch last game but that is not necessarily because the back up qb can't pass. its is because they could and it was working and it caters to his strengths. so we don't know if we commit to stopping the run if he is going to be able to hurt us throw the air. i say no.
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BoiseBYU
BSU's DLineman Demarcus Lawrence is a beast. He could cause real problems if we don't deal with him. He's got NFL written all over him. LB are pedestrian. DBacks getting better. I think we can move the ball on them to the tune of 28 points. Receivers are very tall and fast. TE not so good this year. OLine worst one in several years, but still better than ours. RB is FAST. If he gets to the corner, watch out. QB can run well and passes fine, but is second stringer. I think they get 21. So 28-21 BYU
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BroncoBot
No comment.
M
Mars


Since I love being wrong:



Boise State pulls a page out of Houston's playbook, taking advantage of any one-on-one passing against BYU's DBs that they can get. Which is extra hard to prepare for without much game film on their new starting QB to give away tendencies. BSU shuts down any RB not named Jamaal, and they pass rush/blitz hard on defense, giving Hill little time to throw the ball away, but moving him out of bounds and not leaving too many running lanes open. They get a bunch of sacks and cause a couple turnovers too. BYU's special teams make some mistakes on both sides of the ball. BYU coaches mismanage some time-out/clock situations, and it's STILL a nail-biter to the very end. But...



BSU wins, 31-28.
F
frdbtr
BoiseBYU wrote:
BSU's DLineman Demarcus Lawrence is a beast. He could cause real problems if we don't deal with him. He's got NFL written all over him. LB are pedestrian. DBacks getting better. I think we can move the ball on them to the tune of 28 points. Receivers are very tall and fast. TE not so good this year. OLine worst one in several years, but still better than ours. RB is FAST. If he gets to the corner, watch out. QB can run well and passes fine, but is second stringer. I think they get 21. So 28-21 BYU


Every Oline we go against is better than ours. No explanations, just 31-21 BYU.
C
Cougs_Rule
Mars wrote:


Since I love being wrong:



Boise State pulls a page out of Houston's playbook, taking advantage of any one-on-one passing against BYU's DBs that they can get. Which is extra hard to prepare for without much game film on their new starting QB to give away tendencies. BSU shuts down any RB not named Jamaal, and they pass rush/blitz hard on defense, giving Hill little time to throw the ball away, but moving him out of bounds and not leaving too many running lanes open. They get a bunch of sacks and cause a couple turnovers too. BYU's special teams make some mistakes on both sides of the ball. BYU coaches mismanage some time-out/clock situations, and it's STILL a nail-biter to the very end. But...



BSU wins, 31-28.


Glad to see I'm playing/predicting with the smart guys.
S
Schmoe
Cougars win, 30-21 over Donkey State.
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BOID
BYU bottles up BSU's back-up QB (Hedrick?) quite handily, and matches up much better against BSU's offense than they did against UH. Bills will be back, and the Cougar D will school BSU. Dual threat Taysom runs for six 1st downs, and JW runs for 150 yds, while the Broncos will be trying to bring pressure to suppress Hill-to-Hoffman, Hill-to-Ridley, Hill-to-Mathews, and Hill-to-Apo. I don't know if BYU will bring back screens and quick outs, but Hill will use option reads well against them. BYU matches TO's or wins TO margin, having studied ball security and recently improving on that front. BYU dominates specialty teams play, because they have awesome athletes on ST's. BYU's TE's surprise BSU coverage schemes for two 1st down receptions. Broncos make plays too, but will punt three more times than BYU does. I respect Boise St, but I think BYU has reached a new level of execution with superior athletes and is finally showing its potential. BSU would have faired better against BYU if this match up would have been three or more weeks ago. BYU 34; BSU 20.



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A
ABYUFAN
BYU 35 BSU 17
J
jonnylingo
Mars wrote:


Since I love being wrong:



Boise State pulls a page out of Houston's playbook, taking advantage of any one-on-one passing against BYU's DBs that they can get. Which is extra hard to prepare for without much game film on their new starting QB to give away tendencies. BSU shuts down any RB not named Jamaal, and they pass rush/blitz hard on defense, giving Hill little time to throw the ball away, but moving him out of bounds and not leaving too many running lanes open. They get a bunch of sacks and cause a couple turnovers too. BYU's special teams make some mistakes on both sides of the ball. BYU coaches mismanage some time-out/clock situations, and it's STILL a nail-biter to the very end. But...



BSU wins, 31-28.


If BSU is successful doing those things how does byu put up 31?
M
Mars
jonnylingo wrote:
Boise State pulls a page out of Houston's playbook, taking advantage of any one-on-one passing against BYU's DBs that they can get. BSU shuts down any RB not named Jamaal, and they pass rush/blitz hard on defense, giving Hill little time to throw the ball away, but moving him out of bounds and not leaving too many running lanes open. They get a bunch of sacks and cause a couple turnovers too. BYU's special teams make some mistakes on both sides of the ball. BYU coaches mismanage some time-out/clock situations, and it's STILL a nail-biter to the very end. But Boise State wins, 31-28.
If BSU is successful doing those things how does byu put up 31?

Well, look at the Houston game.



-Houston had 483 yards and 46 points, including 435 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns. Houston threw for almost a first down every attempt (9.3 yards on average per throw) and completed nearly 66% of their passes.

-Hine/Brown/Lasike ran for 3.8 yards per attempt on average. Not bad, but not great. Hill ran for 3.7 after sacks.

-Taysom was sacked 8 times for 66 yards and threw 3 INTs.

-Houston punted for 5 yards more on average than BYU did. They also returned a kick for a touchdown, and BYU had negative punt return yardage overall.

-BYU also had 14 penalties for 125 yards.



And yes, despite all that BYU still scored 47 point and won the game. But Boise State is a different matter. You can't do that and beat the Broncos. You can score 28 maybe, but not win.
S
stgeorgefan
There is a lot of story lines that make this game hard to predict.

- BSU back-up QB better passer or runner. Can he pass down field?

-Byu's secondary

-Is Jamal Williams 100%

- Is byu going to be tired/sluggish



I think Byu will start slow but finish strong.

I think BSU will run a lot of mis-direction/trick play stuff. I think BSU will try and throw the ball down field using the methods I just listed above.

I think Byu passes the ball for over 300 yards but runs for under their season average. I really believe that our passing game has found its groove and that plays a huge part in this game. TE's get a TD this week!



I have stuck to averages on almost every prediction so far but feel like this game Byu takes it to another level. With the win the cougs enter the top 25.



Byu 42 BSU 16
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a1247
Two years ago I won the football prediction game, last year I came in second. This year I'm almost dead last. I cannot figure this team out to save myself. My prediction mojo sucks this year! Cougs win 38-24
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jonnylingo
stgeorgefan wrote:
There is a lot of story lines that make this game hard to predict.

- BSU back-up QB better passer or runner. Can he pass down field?

-Byu's secondary

-Is Jamal Williams 100%

- Is byu going to be tired/sluggish



I think Byu will start slow but finish strong.

I think BSU will run a lot of mis-direction/trick play stuff. I think BSU will try and throw the ball down field using the methods I just listed above.

I think Byu passes the ball for over 300 yards but runs for under their season average. I really believe that our passing game has found its groove and that plays a huge part in this game. TE's get a TD this week!



I have stuck to averages on almost every prediction so far but feel like this game Byu takes it to another level. With the win the cougs enter the top 25.



Byu 42 BSU 16


I feel like this could very well happen, especially if their second string qb has a horrible night. i am just not as confident as you are. their back up had a great game as the step in but that is different than being the guy. he was very accurate and ran very well. i am hoping we can slow their run game down enough that he is forced to pass. hopefully at that point vannoy and co scare him in to a few bad decisions. hopefully he is overwhelmed. we will see. who knows. the qb adds a new dimension. i suspect he throws a couple picks.
C
Cougarbib
I sure hope a key DB does not get a headache in warmups.



Let me shed a rare ray of sunshine



Home Game - Home Crowd Friday - The Bibster is coming to town again - to make some noise at the right moments - might even wear the right color if it is not to cold - so what is the right color?

Williams is supposed to play - hopefully 4 qtrs

Bills is expected to play

Boise is vulnerable to the pass

Possible sellout

National TV - Exposure

Taters gets up for opponents from The Tater State

Wasn't it the guy who invented the internet that spelled Taters wrong



Anyway. We got Taters. We just need a big Spud to protect his blindside and a bunch of chips and fries to help Taters Roll.



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broncoug
I am thinking BYU takes this one. Even though I am a lifelong BSU fan (but am also a big BYU fan and grad as well) I have to say BYU looks to have a stronger team this year.



I will say 34-21 BYU



For what its worth - I have been to most BSU games this year and have some observations for those who have not seen them play much:



Here are BSU's strengths -



Running back - Ajayi is a monster.

Coaching - I think Petersen is unreal with what he does up here in Boise

Recievers - BSU has some great receivers. Tall ones, short ones, fast ones, etc.

Intangibles - They did not have the "it" factor of previous BSU teams, but I saw a glimmer vs.Nevada



Here are their weaknesses



D-Line - good, but a big drop from the last few years. Though Demarcus Lawrence can be a beast when he decides to play hard. should not be hard for BYU to run for lots and lots of yards

Secondary - BSU is young and very small. Fast, but very inexperienced. Hill and Hoffman could go wild, Fresno was unstoppable passing slants across the middle, all night.

QB - I feel like last year and this year are equivalent to the RN years at BYU - frustrating

Offensive game plans - boring, and very Anae-like. Surprising for a Petersen coached team. Hedrick will fumble at least three times on Friday. Book it.



Anyway, if anyone has any questions about BSU this year, let me know and I'll give you my very unbiased opinion ;)





FYI - I know the Petersen's personally, and am working hard on converting them so that when he retires from Boise he will want to coach at BYU. Assuming Bronco would be the DC of course.
G
Guest
broncoug,



I have watched a few BSU games this year, but not many. In my incomplete viewing it seemed to me like Boise was particularly susceptible to a power rushing attack, would you say that is accurate or just a product of the few games I saw?



I didn't see the Fresno game, so I haven't seen anyone throwing particularly well against them, but maybe you can speak a little more about Boise's pass defense woes?



Thanks, and welcome to the site!
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