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Post-Houston RER and other Statistical Observations

by SpiffCoug · 10/22/2013

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S
SpiffCoug
RER is this poor, lay-statistician's attempt to quantify the production of receivers in the passing game - as they are responsible for their own production. :) I take the Passer Efficiency Rating and apply it to receivers with targets (gathered from a review of the play-by-play) replacing attempts. (I still haven't figured out if 135 should be the standard for receivers as well).



At any rate, here is the Houston game RER w/ season RER in parentheses.

Hoffman: 167.17 (115.76)

Apo: 351.10 (137.27)

Ridley: 255.14 (133.69)

Falslev: 162.16 (161.34)

Matthews: 71.40 (145.33)

Friel: 100.53 (60.32)

Lasike: -45.80 (-33.28)



RBs: -45.80 (49.81)

TEs: 100.53 (90.91)

WRs: 181.92 (129.66)



- Lasike has been targeted five times on the year. He has 2 catches for 4 yards and 2 INTs.



- It was the first game this year with both halves featuring a PER meeting the standard in both halves (159.32 & 166.83). It was just the second such game since the opener - last year.



- Five of the seven opponents have a winning record.



- BYU's 8 sacks allowed vs Houston are the most allowed since Florida St also got 8 in 2010.



- The team with the higher PER has won six of the seven games (Texas) and 27 of the last 29 (.931).



- Bronco improved to 11-7 (.611) vs teams with a red helmet.



- The 14 penalties are the most since the New Mexico game in 2010 and ties a record for most penalties under Bronco. BYU is 2-1 in those games scoring an average of 45 points.



- The 71 rushing attempts are the second most under Bronco (72 vs Texas). BYU is averaging 43.5 points in those games.



- As noted elsewhere, the 400+ yards passing and 100+ yards rushing by Taysom Hill is the first time that has happened at BYU and just the 7th time ever.



- BYU has averaged at least 8.7 yards per attempt in four straight games (9.5 vs Houston) the first such four-game stretch since 2006 - when BYU had two such stretches. BYU does not have a five-game stretch (my data only goes back thru 1995 at this time).



- Houston's 435 yards passing are the most vs BYU since Tulsa had 490 in 2007.



- BYU has alternating winning and losing the seventh game of the year every year since 2007. If this trend continues, BYU should lose their seventh game next year.



- BYU is currently averaging 263.1 yards rushing the most by more than 100 yards under Bronco.



- BYU's 1842 yards rushing has already eclipsed their total in 2005 and 2008. Following the game this week (Boise) BYU should pass the 2006, 2007 & 2009 totals as well. Reaching their average will pass every season under Bronco except 2010 - which is currently 343 yards ahead.



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M
Mars
SpiffCoug wrote:
Here is the Houston game RER w/ season RER in parentheses.

Hoffman: 167.17 (115.76)

Apo: 351.10 (137.27)

Ridley: 255.14 (133.69)

Falslev: 162.16 (161.34)

Matthews: 71.40 (145.33)

Clearly Hoffman is BYU's 5th-best receiver, if not worse.



;)
B
BYULV
Mars wrote:
Here is the Houston game RER w/ season RER in parentheses.

Hoffman: 167.17 (115.76)

Apo: 351.10 (137.27)

Ridley: 255.14 (133.69)

Falslev: 162.16 (161.34)

Matthews: 71.40 (145.33)

Clearly Hoffman is BYU's 5th-best receiver, if not worse.



;)


I know you're just kidding, but so far he hasn't been our best receiver. Hopefully his injuries are over and he's back on track this week.
C
Cougarbib
Apparently RER does not take double teams into account.
S
SpiffCoug
Hoffman is hurt by the INTs thrown when he's the target. Matthews too.
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Brayden Green
SpiffCoug wrote:
Hoffman is hurt by the INTs thrown when he's the target. Matthews too.


Why is INT a variable of your RER? Seems like that should be eliminated or replaced with something. Maybe drops should take the place of INTs with a multiplier of 100 instead of 300 for INTS.
S
SpiffCoug
BlueIsBetter wrote:
Hoffman is hurt by the INTs thrown when he's the target. Matthews too.


Why is INT a variable of your RER? Seems like that should be eliminated or replaced with something. Maybe drops should take the place of INTs with a multiplier of 100 instead of 300 for INTS.

interesting idea. Weigh interceptions more.



One reason I don't factor in drops is the play by play doesn't usually mention drops. I guess drops are already favored as they already count as an incompletion.



Maybe I'll try to take note of drops this week and try to come up with a weigh them in the formula.



Good idea. Worth looking at I think.
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