1st down run vs pass

Since there is a big discussion going on about how predictable BYU and Anae are on 1st downs, I went back through all 5 games to see what they did and the results. Granted I don't know if each run was inside the tackles or outside, but I thought it was interesting on the numbers.



I broke it down game by game and then combined.



Virginia:

Ran 26 times 124 yds for 4.7 avg. 1 TD

Pass 12 times 28 yds for 2.3 avg.

Ran on 1st down 68% of the time but gained 124 of 187 total rushing yds for the game, 66%

Pass 32% of the time, gained 28 of 175 total yds, or 16% of total passing yds.



Texas:

Ran 33 times 203 yds 6.1 avg

Pass 11 times 74 yds 6.7 avg.

Ran 75% of the time, gained 203 of 550 total or 37% of total rushing yds

Pass 25% gained 74 of 129 total yds or 57% of total passing yds



Utah:

Ran 18 times 91 yds 5.0 avg 1 TD

Pass 18 times 96 yds 5.3 avg

Ran 50% gained 91 of 183 total yds or 49% of total rushing yds

Pass 50%, gained 96 of 260 total yds or 37% of total passing yds

Utah did sack Hill 3 times on first down for -15 yds, did know if I should put that as a rushing attempt or a passing attempt. I know those yards come off rushing totals but it started out as a pass attempt, so I didn't put it in either and created a different category.



Mid Tenn St:

Ran 26 times 145 yds 5.5 avg 2 TD

Pass 7 times 80 yds 11.4 avg

Ran 78% gained 145 of 309 total yds 47% of total rushing yds

Pass 22% gained 80 of 177 total yds 45% of total passing yds



Utah St:

Ran 22 times 73 yds 3.3 avg

Pass 10 times 84 yds 8.4 avg 2 TD

Ran 68% gained 73 of 160 total yds, 45% of total rushing yds

Pass 32% gained 84 of 278 total yds, 30% of total passing yds

Utah St did sack Hill 1 time for -7 yds.



Season Totals

Run 125 times 636 yds 5.0 avg 4 TD

Pass 58 times 362 yds 6.2 avg 2 TD

Run 68 % of the time gained 636 of 1389 total yds, 45% of total rushing yds

Pass 32% of the time gained 362 of 1019 total yds, 35% of total passing yds



Interesing numbers here, so they are running it 68% of the time on first down but with a 5.0 avg, that seems to be working pretty well.



Keep in mind these numbers also include the Texas, Mid Tenn St and Utah St games, where they were trying to run the clock out for 1+ qtrs. in each of those games.



So what are your thoughts?

Also interesting against the :utard: it was 50% pass, run with the same results.



For the year though if you are gaining 45% of all your rushing yards on first down that seems like something is working.



I think the biggest gripe all of us have is how many 3 and outs they have, I will look that up and post what I find.

anae did way better playcalling against utah state. he was much less predictable. in my opinion that is what needs to improve. it is not necessarily the plays. the play action that lead to mathews td up the middle was a thing of beauty from a play calling standpoint.

jonnylingo wrote:
anae did way better playcalling against utah state. he was much less predictable. in my opinion that is what needs to improve. it is not necessarily the plays. the play action that lead to mathews td up the middle was a thing of beauty from a play calling standpoint.

It was a thing of beauty. There is a reason it worked so well. The defense had been lulled into expecting a run and reacted to the fake and started to move up for run support - right before they said, Oh Crap.



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OK ... I gotta admit that I'm one who would have bet that it was going to be weighted even more heavily towards run on first down. I am pleasantly surprised (and enjoying a little crow).



One question ... did you track the completion rates on first down passing? I have figured TH was more accurate on first down passes (I say as I stare at another serving of crow!) ...



Thanks for the work!

mtnradio wrote:
OK ... I gotta admit that I'm one who would have bet that it was going to be weighted even more heavily towards run on first down. I am pleasantly surprised (and enjoying a little crow).



One question ... did you track the completion rates on first down passing? I have figured TH was more accurate on first down passes (I say as I stare at another serving of crow!) ...



Thanks for the work!

Glad to do it, although I am no where close to Spiff, but I do like to dabble a little with statistics.



Virginia: 3-12 25%

Texas: 5-11 45%

Utah: 7-18 38%

Mid Tenn: 6-7 85%

Utah St: 7-10 70% and 2 TD's



Season: 28-58 48% 2 TD's



Hill certainly struggled big time earlier in the year, as we all know, but the last 2 games has shown incredible improvement.

OK ... I gotta admit that I'm one who would have bet that it was going to be weighted even more heavily towards run on first down. I am pleasantly surprised (and enjoying a little crow).



One question ... did you track the completion rates on first down passing? I have figured TH was more accurate on first down passes (I say as I stare at another serving of crow!) ...



Thanks for the work!

blue42 wrote:



Glad to do it, although I am no where close to Spiff, but I do like to dabble a little with statistics.



Virginia: 3-12 25%

Texas: 5-11 45%

Utah: 7-18 38%

Mid Tenn: 6-7 85%

Utah St: 7-10 70% and 2 TD's



Season: 28-58 48% 2 TD's



Hill certainly struggled big time earlier in the year, as we all know, but the last 2 games has shown incredible improvement.

Uh oh! Catching the bug.

blue42 wrote:



I think the biggest gripe all of us have is how many 3 and outs they have, I will look that up and post what I find.

Bingo! I'd also add overall 3rd down %. We could average 5.0 yards a run vs utah on 1st down and lose, the problem to me is 1st down play calls and how it effects downs 2-3. To many third and longs with a below average passer.

I too saw some improvement vs USU, especially on downs 2 & 3. This offense NEEDS 3rd down and manageable. 3rd down and long takes away all our advantages on offense(run option) teams know were gonna pass and its an even playing field.

stgeorgefan wrote:

I think the biggest gripe all of us have is how many 3 and outs they have, I will look that up and post what I find.

Bingo! I'd also add overall 3rd down %. We could average 5.0 yards a run vs utah on 1st down and lose, the problem to me is 1st down play calls and how it effects downs 2-3. To many third and longs with a below average passer.

I too saw some improvement vs USU, especially on downs 2 & 3. This offense NEEDS 3rd down and manageable. 3rd down and long takes away all our advantages on offense(run option) teams know were gonna pass and its an even playing field.

I am actually doing this, with a lot more with down and distance and results for each down. It has blossomed into a lot more than I originally started with and unfortunately work has gotten in the way. :~(

blue42 wrote:

blue42 wrote:



I think the biggest gripe all of us have is how many 3 and outs they have, I will look that up and post what I find.

Bingo! I'd also add overall 3rd down %. We could average 5.0 yards a run vs utah on 1st down and lose, the problem to me is 1st down play calls and how it effects downs 2-3. To many third and longs with a below average passer.

I too saw some improvement vs USU, especially on downs 2 & 3. This offense NEEDS 3rd down and manageable. 3rd down and long takes away all our advantages on offense(run option) teams know were gonna pass and its an even playing field.

I am actually doing this, with a lot more with down and distance and results for each down. It has blossomed into a lot more than I originally started with and unfortunately work has gotten in the way. :~(

I'd also be interested to know the same percentages/avg yards per play for 2nd and 3rd downs through 5 games and season averages. Like stgeorgefan said, we could get 5.0 per play on first down and throw two incompletions, 3 and out. If we get 5 on first down, we need to get at least 3-4 on 2nd if we run the ball and at least 5-6 if we pass the ball. That brings up 3rd and 1-2 or first down, and we keep the chains moving.