USU vs opponent averages

Utah State has played five games. They're pretty good when compared to their opponents averages.



The Utah State offense has:

Scored MORE points than opposing scoring defenses allow in four of five games.

Ran for MORE yards than opposing rushing defenses allow in five of five games.

Gained MORE total yards than opposing total defenses allow in four of five games.

Been ABOVE opposing defenses PER defense in four of five games.



The Utah State defense has:

Allowed FEWER points than opposing scoring offenses score in five of five games.

Allowed FEWER yards than opposing rushing offenses gain in four of five games.

Allowed FEWER total yards than opposing total offenses gain in four of five games.

Held opposing PER offenses BELOW their average in four of five games.



All tolled, USU is scoring 4.2 points above opposing scoring defenses, gaining 13.6 more total yards and 24 rushing yards and is 18.3 PER points above opposing defenses. And holding opponents 13.8 points, 126.5 rushing yards 102.7 total yards and 12.8 PER points below their averages.



Going to be a very tough matchup for BYU to win.

I think you should go work for Phil Steele. Good analysis.

This is a good start to the analysis.



USU has a better rushing and passing offense than the other opponents of almost every team they have played. USU has a better rushing and passing defense than those other opponents of almost all of the teams USU has played as well.



So that raises the question. Who were those masked men and how good were they.



The question, for example, is not how good Utah is if Utah is one of the ones USU bettered, the qiestion would be who has Utah played besides USU. The answer would be Weber State, Oregon State, and BYU. Weber State skews those numbers substantially, but it probably means USU is on par with Utah as their head-to-head match-up indicated. Utah was fortunate to beat them at home.



If USU bettered USC, USC lost to Washington State at home, beat a bad Hawaii team, and got killed by Arizona State. Hawaii skews the numbers, but this puts USU on a par with USC who was lucky to nip them in a close game at home.



I forget who AFA has played. USU is clearly better than AFA if I am correctly recalling who USU has played.



BYU lost to U at home. U beat USU at home. USU will be at home vs Y. I see USU as a 4 point favorite.



Not sure what Las Vegas sees in this one.



Still not sure which Y offense and special teams unit will show up. The Y defense will be good. Very good.



So look for BYU D to outperform USU's other opponents. Look for the BYU offense to underperform them. Not sure how to measure special teams. Perhaps that will be the difference in the final score.



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Las Vegas has USU favored by 6.5 points. It has come to this. The Utah State Aggies - whom many thought were doomed to extinction ala NMSU and Idaho when The WAC crumbled, are risin up.



I am happy for The Aggies, but IMHO, this is our MUST WIN game this year.



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Football Outsiders has them as the 3rd hardest game on our schedule.

I realize that this year is different than last year, but BYU held USU to rushing and passing yards and total points far below their averages last year. True, the game was also in Provo. However, just as UU seems to have BYU's number, BYU seems to have USU's number (with the exception of 2010-but then our offense and defense were both playing poorly for four games from AFA to USU). I think that BYU will score in the mid- to upper-twenties and will hold the Aggies to high-teens to low-twenties.

scott715 wrote:
I think you should go work for Phil Steele. Good analysis.

That's what I was thinking... or Street & Smith's or cfbstats.com or bleacherreport.com, etc. Nice analysis there Spiff. 8)

By the way... how come no one has started a Utah-UCLA thread yet? The Utes are gonna get shellacked by the Bruins and I would of thought that this board would have been all over that? A lot of the local sports media are giving Utah a chance and comparing Wilson to Hundley, etc., but I don't see it... the Utes will be way in over their heads in this game and IMHO, will be the beginning of a 6-game losing streak. UCLA went into Nebraska and smoked the Cornhuskers. They're ranked #12 right now and rising fast and this ain't gonna be the same caliber UCLA team that got spanked at Utah 44-6 back in 2007, nor does Utah have the same level of talent. Bruins by at least 21.

Probably because we don't care about Utah. Focused on our own team. And for the record, it's not the same UCLA team that came in to Provo and got shellacked by BYU either. How do you even know that UCLA Utah score and what year it was anyway?

runbyu1 wrote:
Probably because we don't care about Utah. Focused on our own team. And for the record, it's not the same UCLA team that came in to Provo and got shellacked by BYU either. How do you even know that UCLA Utah score and what year it was anyway?

UCLA destroyed the Cougs in '93 in one of BYU's worst losses ever (68-14) and then 15 years later in 2008, returned the favor in Provo with the Cougs waxing the Bruins 59-0. By the way, I don't recall the Utah-UCLA game because I'm a Ute... I am a college football fan and was listening to the game on the radio that day owing to the in-state interest. Nice try at pegging me as a Ute though.

I'm pretty sure Utah's season is over.



At least, that's the impression that I get from talking to any Ute fans that live nearby. Now that the BYU game is over they have no idea who, what, when, or where the next game is.

I was at that 68-14 Debacle. The 14 came late.



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SpiffCoug wrote:



All tolled, USU is scoring 4.2 points above opposing scoring defenses, gaining 13.6 more total yards and 24 rushing yards and is 18.3 PER points above opposing defenses. And holding opponents 13.8 points, 126.5 rushing yards 102.7 total yards and 12.8 PER points below their averages.



Going to be a very tough matchup for BYU to win.

So we learn from Spiff's averages that

- USU's offense is about dead even with the offenses its competitors has played, but

- its defense is quite a bit better than the defenses its competitors have played.



Matched with our relative strengths (D >>> O), I see this as a very low scoring game. Then considering last year's 6-3 score, I'm pretty sure of it. I'd be shocked if the combined score was more than 30, and probably not more than 20. My bold prediction is that this will be the game where Justin Sorensen defines his legacy. The game will come down to FGs and Sorensen will either end up as the goat in keeping with the last 2 years, or the hero we thought he could be judging by his Freshman year. I think USU gets 10 points and we get 4 FG tries but no TDs. So I'm predicting 12-10 or 9-10; hoping it's BYU on top.



The other goat/hero guy will be JD. I hope JD won't amount to much of a difference maker on PR, but I could see it going either way. He plays hot, often tries to do too much, and will make a decision that in hindsight seems poor--not saying he'll fumble, because I don't think he will, but I think he'll try to bring one out he should have let go. USU will also game plan for him: They'll kick away from him to try to lure him into making a hero catch, but they'll also play with a man or two hanging back to prevent the long run and score. So I think he'll make a bad decision on fielding / not fielding, but will have decent return yardage (~10 yards / punt).

hawkwing wrote:
I'm pretty sure Utah's season is over.



At least, that's the impression that I get from talking to any Ute fans that live nearby. Now that the BYU game is over they have no idea who, what, when, or where the next game is.

Haha, I asked all my students who had been talking trash during rivalry week when the next U game was and who it was against. Not one knew the opponent and not one knew it was a Thursday game.

hawkwing wrote:
I'm pretty sure Utah's season is over.



At least, that's the impression that I get from talking to any Ute fans that live nearby. Now that the BYU game is over they have no idea who, what, when, or where the next game is.

Utah starts an 0-6 run tomorrow night with a spanking at the hands of the Bruins.

Schmoe wrote:

I'm pretty sure Utah's season is over.



At least, that's the impression that I get from talking to any Ute fans that live nearby. Now that the BYU game is over they have no idea who, what, when, or where the next game is.

Haha, I asked all my students who had been talking trash during rivalry week when the next U game was and who it was against. Not one knew the opponent and not one knew it was a Thursday game.

:crazy: I have to admit that is funny. what is less funny is that we have lost to them four years on a row.



i see utah as being better than most are giving them credit for. i think they go bowling for sure and I think they pull out some wins that people will be surprised about.

jonnylingo wrote:

hawkwing wrote:
I'm pretty sure Utah's season is over.



At least, that's the impression that I get from talking to any Ute fans that live nearby. Now that the BYU game is over they have no idea who, what, when, or where the next game is.

Haha, I asked all my students who had been talking trash during rivalry week when the next U game was and who it was against. Not one knew the opponent and not one knew it was a Thursday game.

:crazy: I have to admit that is funny. what is less funny is that we have lost to them four years on a row.



i see utah as being better than most are giving them credit for. i think they go bowling for sure and I think they pull out some wins that people will be surprised about.

They might be able to get Arizona in the next 6, but they're going to lose the other 5. And there's no automatic win against Washington State either as they beat USC in the Memorial Colliseum earlier this year. The Utes are way in over their head trying to compete in the PAC 12 much like BYU will no longer see 9-10 win seasons being independent.