Rating Hill as a mobile QB

We talk a lot about PER and how it correlates with wins. In the Texas game, it wasn't even close. Hill's PER was 58.65, and the Texas QBs combined for 129.3. So I tried to come up with a rating system that would help account for Hill's legs as well as his arm.



What I did is count each rushing play as a passing attempt, each positive rush as a completion, a rushing TD as a passing TD, and a fumble lost as an interception. Here are the numbers from Texas:

+--------------+--------------------+--------+
| Player(s)    | ATT CMP YDS TD INT | RATING |
+--------------+--------------------+--------+
| Hill (pass)  |  26   9 129  0   1 |  68.60 |
| Hill (run)   |  17  15 259  3   1 | 262.68 |
| Hill (total) |  43  24 388  3   2 | 145.33 |
+--------------+--------------------+--------+
| Texas (pass) |  44  24 313  2   0 | 129.30 |
| Texas (run)  |  18  13  23  0   0 |  82.95 |
| Texas (total)|  62  37 336  2   0 | 115.85 |
+--------------+--------------------+--------+

Observations on this and other things:

• Neither my rating nor PER accounts for first downs, or unconverted 3rd downs. A pass completed for 10 yards on 3rd and 15 should not be considered as successful as the same pass on 3rd and 5, or 1st or 2nd down.


• Counting rushes the way I did is probably too generous. I should probably use 3 yards minimum to count as complete, unless you pick up a first down or TD with that short run.


• This metric actually puts Hill right around our key number of 138, and Texas 20 points below us, explaining the win.


• It would be interesting to retroactively apply this to all of our games and see if it's a better indicator of victory than PER. Unfortunately, you have to go play-by-play to get the data; you can't just use box scores.


• Has anybody noticed that Justin Sorensen is perfect on field goals and extra points so far? Kickoffs could use some work, but that's been a nice surprise so far. Knock on wood...

Anyway, I found it interesting and helpful to look at things through this lens. I hope some of you do, too.

I like it. Obviously high per isn't necessary to win games. I've always liked the passing game and byu's great qbs but winning is first. I love Hills game.

Winning comes first. With that being said, a capable defense can stuff Hill and the read option, so he needs to be out there working on his throws, which more often than not look bad.

Hill only had 1 INT in the game, and had one less pass attempted. Not that it improves his PER much. He did go 5 for 9 in the 2nd half. He has to improve though.

stuckinbig10country wrote:
Hill only had 1 INT in the game, and had one less pass attempted. Not that it improves his PER much. He did go 5 for 9 in the 2nd half. He has to improve though.

Thanks. Edited.

Hills passing will improve. It will improve with better pass blocking, better route running by receivers and Hill feeling more comfortable in the pocket (with the better pass blocking). His passing has never looked as good as his running but last year in his 2 starts (one being against a very good USU defense), his passing looked better than it does this year. Once his passing improves, which I am totally confident it is going to, this offense is going to be scary good. Now, combine that with the defense which is looking as good or better than it did last year, we might see something special this year.