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Bowl options.

by mormonrasta · 11/29/2009

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mormonrasta
Despite what Thompson said earlier this year it looks like BYU is going back to Vegas. There are only 3 possible opponents they will play.



USC- If the Trojans lose to Arizona and Cal loses to UW next week then USC will go Vegas.



Cal- If Cal beats UW, USC beats Arizona, and Oregon St. beats Oregon, then Oregon goes to the Holiday. USC the Sun. Stanford the Emerald. Cal to Vegas.



Oregon St.- If Cal beats UW and Oregon beats Oregon St. then OSU is coming to Vegas.
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SpiffCoug
Teams I'd like to play in order: USC, Oregon St, Cal.
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Matty-B
kitic77 wrote:
Teams I'd like to play in order: USC, Oregon St, Cal.




i agree with this order.



I'd very much like to see a BYU win over those guys
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SpiffCoug
I put USC first for name recognition only. I think a win over a very beatable USC team (their worst team since 2000) would carry more weight than a win over the other two. I put Cal last, as I think they have the most speed in the backfield that could give us the most problems.
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Matty-B
When do they usually make bowl announcements? I can never remember
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SpiffCoug
It probably won't be until 6 Dec or unless the BCS releases BYU from consideration before that. BYU is likely going to be #15 in the BCS standings but theoretically could move into the top 14 next week when the final BCS poll is released and BYU would be "eligible" for a BCS bowl - however unlikely a bid would be. BYU could also ask to be released so as to be able to be invited to either the Vegas Bowl or Poinsettia Bowl sooner and allow for fans and the team to make arrangements.
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craigoscarson
kitic77 wrote:
I put USC first for name recognition only. I think a win over a very beatable USC team (their worst team since 2000) would carry more weight than a win over the other two. I put Cal last, as I think they have the most speed in the backfield that could give us the most problems.


Cal has no defense and they're the only team we could seriously run on. I'd prefer to play Cal and take our chances that we can keep their home run guys honest.



USC is certainly down and we'd give them a game, but they also are more like TCU than any team on our schedule and could give us fits, IF they came motivated. Chances are, that they may not care. Ultimately a lot of bowl games come down to which team gives a crap.



Oregon State has the Rogers boys (which are as much of a threat as Cals guys) and they have a pretty decent defense too. They wouldn't travel as well as Cal or USC but they might just be a more complete team.
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BYUROCKS
Matty-B wrote:
Teams I'd like to play in order: USC, Oregon St, Cal.




i agree with this order.



I'd very much like to see a BYU win over those guys


Ditto that, or maybe if BSU gets left out of the party, maybe a BYU vs BSU game 8) 8)
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GolfDiveNCougs
I'm a bit of a johnny-come-lately for this thread, considering bowl scenarios is actually one of my obsessions (just ask my wife, she rolls her eyes at the myriad excel spreadsheets that start popping up on the desktop around this time of the season), but it looks like you missed a few possibilites, rasta.



Of the 8 remaining possible outcomes to affect bowl positioning, 6 of them look strongly like your assertion is correct, that it'll be either USC, Cal or Oregon State (and actually, Oregon State is only really a possibility in one instance - Oregon, USC and Cal wins - but even then, that results in a 4-way tie for second between USC, Cal, Stanford and Oregon State (and I've listed those teams in the order I think they'll go to bowls), and who knows for sure. It's everybody's assumption that the Beavers are a smaller draw than the other schools, so yes, they'd likely be last pick of the ties.



There are 2 scenarios that could put us against Arizona again, though. If Arizona and Cal win, we may just see Arizona in Vegas (ugh).

Reason I say this:

-if Oregon State wins, there'll be a 3-way tie for 3rd between Stanford, Cal and Arizona. Assuming the Sun Bowl would want the bigger Stanford or Cal name, and Emerald takes the other, that'd leave us with Arizona.

-if Oregon wins, there'll be a 4 way tie between Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona. In this case, WHO KNOWS who the Holiday and Sun Bowls will take. Reason being, in MY opinion, of the 4, Cal and Stanford are the biggest draws, which would make one think that they'd go 2 and 3 (which would annoy Emerald to all getout because they'd get no NorCal home team), but who knows which one of the leftovers (Oregon State and Arizona) the Emerald would take, and which they'd leave Vegas with. If I were to guess here, I'd say the Emerald would take Oregon State, as the draw would be about the same, and Oregon State is closer. That'd again leave us with Arizona.



Okay /geek. Thanks for humoring me. ;)
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imuakahuku
I'd like to face USC. Especially since we have lost some recruits to them, it would be nice to play and beat them while they still have those recruits. :D
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BYUROCKS
imuakahuku wrote:
I'd like to face USC. Especially since we have lost some recruits to them, it would be nice to play and beat them while they still have those recruits. :D


I hope with ND's HC leaving, Manti might go on mish, and then com here 8) but I really want to beat the crap out of USC.
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craigoscarson
These bowl directors are 1st and foremost business people.

They will not allow Arizona/BYU the sequel. The Pac 10 and MWC would frown on that too.



This isn't the NCAA selection committee forcing A+M on us x2; these bowl representatives are looking only at one color.... green.



They money says that all Pac 10 teams can benefit from matchups that create interest. The rules for #1 vs #4,5 etc. can be thrown out if the money is right and the conference officials want it.



We'll get a new opponent from the Pac 10 and that's exciting. I hope the team gets as excited about it as they were against Oregon. One thing going for us in Vegas, is that the trip is ho hum for the seniors. They'll be there for one reason and one reason only, to show the Pac 10 and the country that BYU is a legit top 15 team.



Let's hope the FSU/TCU BYU squad doesn't show up.
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mormonrasta
GolfDiveNCougs wrote:
I'm a bit of a johnny-come-lately for this thread, considering bowl scenarios is actually one of my obsessions (just ask my wife, she rolls her eyes at the myriad excel spreadsheets that start popping up on the desktop around this time of the season), but it looks like you missed a few possibilites, rasta.



Of the 8 remaining possible outcomes to affect bowl positioning, 6 of them look strongly like your assertion is correct, that it'll be either USC, Cal or Oregon State (and actually, Oregon State is only really a possibility in one instance - Oregon, USC and Cal wins - but even then, that results in a 4-way tie for second between USC, Cal, Stanford and Oregon State (and I've listed those teams in the order I think they'll go to bowls), and who knows for sure. It's everybody's assumption that the Beavers are a smaller draw than the other schools, so yes, they'd likely be last pick of the ties.



There are 2 scenarios that could put us against Arizona again, though. If Arizona and Cal win, we may just see Arizona in Vegas (ugh).

Reason I say this:

-if Oregon State wins, there'll be a 3-way tie for 3rd between Stanford, Cal and Arizona. Assuming the Sun Bowl would want the bigger Stanford or Cal name, and Emerald takes the other, that'd leave us with Arizona.

-if Oregon wins, there'll be a 4 way tie between Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona. In this case, WHO KNOWS who the Holiday and Sun Bowls will take. Reason being, in MY opinion, of the 4, Cal and Stanford are the biggest draws, which would make one think that they'd go 2 and 3 (which would annoy Emerald to all getout because they'd get no NorCal home team), but who knows which one of the leftovers (Oregon State and Arizona) the Emerald would take, and which they'd leave Vegas with. If I were to guess here, I'd say the Emerald would take Oregon State, as the draw would be about the same, and Oregon State is closer. That'd again leave us with Arizona.



Okay /geek. Thanks for humoring me. ;)


If Arizona beats USC there is NO WAY the Sun Bowl would pass on Arizona. Keep in mind Bowls are about selling tickets so even if Cal or Stanford are available for the Sun Bowl Arizona would trump them because Arizona could get twice as many people to El Paso than either Cal or Stanford who have pretty anemic fan bases.



Also there's a decent chance that the Big 12 team in the Sun Bowl would be Oklahoma. A Stoops' brother's showdown would make for great tv.



The 4 way tie of Cal, OSU, AZ, and Stanford would put Cal in the Holiday (the Holiday doesn't have a problem selling tickets. Cal would be the highest ranked team and would be the best tv draw). AZ in the Sun. Stanford in the Emerald. OSU in Vegas.
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BroncoBot
craigoscarson wrote:
These bowl directors are 1st and foremost business people.

They will not allow Arizona/BYU the sequel. The Pac 10 and MWC would frown on that too.



This isn't the NCAA selection committee forcing A+M on us x2; these bowl representatives are looking only at one color.... green.



They money says that all Pac 10 teams can benefit from matchups that create interest. The rules for #1 vs #4,5 etc. can be thrown out if the money is right and the conference officials want it.



We'll get a new opponent from the Pac 10 and that's exciting. I hope the team gets as excited about it as they were against Oregon. One thing going for us in Vegas, is that the trip is ho hum for the seniors. They'll be there for one reason and one reason only, to show the Pac 10 and the country that BYU is a legit top 15 team.



Let's hope the FSU/TCU BYU squad doesn't show up.


I'd say the biggest thing going for BYU heading into the Bowl is beating Utah. Pretty good indicator for a W/L is the W/L of the Utah game for the last 4 years.
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Mars
craigoscarson wrote:
These bowl directors are 1st and foremost business people. They will not allow Arizona/BYU the sequel. The Pac 10 and MWC would frown on that too.

Yeah, just like they wouldn't allow a UCLA/BYU sequel. And they didn't allow us to play Arizona for the 3rd time in 3 years...
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Italics
kitic77 wrote:
It probably won't be until 6 Dec or unless the BCS releases BYU from consideration before that. BYU is likely going to be #15 in the BCS standings but theoretically could move into the top 14 next week when the final BCS poll is released and BYU would be "eligible" for a BCS bowl - however unlikely a bid would be. BYU could also ask to be released so as to be able to be invited to either the Vegas Bowl or Poinsettia Bowl sooner and allow for fans and the team to make arrangements.


We already are 14 in the BCS
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Italics
BYUROCKS wrote:
I'd like to face USC. Especially since we have lost some recruits to them, it would be nice to play and beat them while they still have those recruits. :D


I hope with ND's HC leaving, Manti might go on mish, and then com here 8) but I really want to beat the crap out of USC.


Forget the "with ND's HC leaving," how about "with ND's sucking?"



I would absolutely LOVE a bowl game against USC or Cal... mainly b/c I hate the hippie/liberal/weirdo state of California and their universities (no offense to any Californians here)



Oregon State would be my last pick - less fans, less prestige, and probably a more difficult team to beat.

USC's defense would/could give us major problems although they've struggled at times, but I'm not all that impressed with their offense.

California is just awful and I think we could beat them if our guys showed up.
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Schmoe
USC, absolutely USC. Five years from now, no one would look back and say "Hey, you guys beat Cal/Oregon St. in that bowl game, sweet!"
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Mars
Schmoe wrote:
USC, absolutely USC. Five years from now, no one would look back and say "Hey, you guys beat Cal/Oregon St. in that bowl game, sweet!"

Depends on the score. We haven't forgot the Las Vegas Bowl win over Oregon yet, have we?
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