Offensive logic

Here's what I think about this year's offense:

1. It cannot possibly be worse than last year

2. All the skill positions have veteran, talented stars returning. BYU has probably never had a better cast of receivers. Williams might be the best running back ever. Hill is no Nelson, or Heaps, he will make this offense go.

3. BYU will score more this year than in the past few years.

4. Because the offensive concept is new, and all the offense coaches are new, it may take a game or two for the offense to really kick in.

5. Last year, the defense gave the offense lots of extra opportunities, unfortunately, they blew most of them. This year, the defense will also give the offense extra opportunities, but this offense will take advantage of them and score more.

6. The kicking game cannot be worse than last year, so it will also be better, it might even win a game or two for us.

7. The offensive line also cannot possibly be as bad as they were last year, so they will be better, I think considerably better, which will translate into more yards, more points, more wins.



BYU should score 70 points on Virginia, but they probably won't because of new coaches, new scheme, etc, but if they put up 45 points, it will be a good sign.



BYU will be as balanced this year as they have ever been, both the passing game and the running game will be as good as they have ever been at BYU.



Texas will have their hands full with BYU, with a little luck, BYU will win that game. Then BYU will beat Utah, and the following week will sit at 4-0, and ranked int he top 20.

I love the optimism, but I can't help but think this will be a work in progress. Plus I recall a small nugget in one of the practice reports last week stating that the offense has been having a little trouble punching the ball into the endzone. Since our TE's suck, I am skeptical about our ability to put up a whole lot of points on anyone but the couple of patsies on the schedule.



Red zone conversion is everything and unless we have an OL that can move the rock down there it's going to be another 20 ppg performance. That won't fly.

70 points? That's way high, especially for a first game for a new offense. Even if our offense was awesome right out of the gate, awesome offense alone doesn't get you to 70. You need awesome offense and either 1) lots of turnovers (see UCLA '08), 2) a real douche of a coach who wants to pour it on (see all the games where Wisconsin drops 84 on Austin Peay), 3) an opponent so incompetent you can score at will with dives into the line with your 2nd and 3rd string players, or 4) a track meet where both defenses are suspect (see Tulane '01, SDSU '91, Air Force '05).

I agree with pretty much all your statements along the lines of "aspect X of the team cannot be worse than last year, so we will be improved compared to '12". That really is the best part of having a crappy team -- the next year you have nowhere to go but up. Such is the case with BYU's offense.



Your 70 point prediction is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off in my opinion. Anae historically does not produce a lot of points in his opening game. He tends to roll up a lot of yards, but struggles to get into the endzone for some reason. BYU will probably score well below its eventual season average. I think the Cougs win 24-9.

Cougy_Monster wrote:
I agree with pretty much all your statements along the lines of "aspect X of the team cannot be worse than last year, so we will be improved compared to '12". That really is the best part of having a crappy team -- the next year you have nowhere to go but up. Such is the case with BYU's offense.



Your 70 point prediction is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off in my opinion. Anae historically does not produce a lot of points in his opening game. He tends to roll up a lot of yards, but struggles to get into the endzone for some reason. BYU will probably score well below its eventual season average. I think the Cougs win 24-9.

I would be happy with a first game 24-9 win.I bet you are pretty close on that.

Screamineagle wrote:

I agree with pretty much all your statements along the lines of "aspect X of the team cannot be worse than last year, so we will be improved compared to '12". That really is the best part of having a crappy team -- the next year you have nowhere to go but up. Such is the case with BYU's offense.



Your 70 point prediction is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off in my opinion. Anae historically does not produce a lot of points in his opening game. He tends to roll up a lot of yards, but struggles to get into the endzone for some reason. BYU will probably score well below its eventual season average. I think the Cougs win 24-9.

I would be happy with a first game 24-9 win.I bet you are pretty close on that.

I will be ecstatic with a 24-9 win. I really doubt BYU scores more than 3 TDs. It just hasn't really happened in the opening game all that often.

golong wrote:
Here's what I think about this year's offense:

1. It cannot possibly be worse than last year

2. All the skill positions have veteran, talented stars returning. BYU has probably never had a better cast of receivers. Williams might be the best running back ever. Hill is no Nelson, or Heaps, he will make this offense go.

3. BYU will score more this year than in the past few years.

4. Because the offensive concept is new, and all the offense coaches are new, it may take a game or two for the offense to really kick in.

5. Last year, the defense gave the offense lots of extra opportunities, unfortunately, they blew most of them. This year, the defense will also give the offense extra opportunities, but this offense will take advantage of them and score more.

6. The kicking game cannot be worse than last year, so it will also be better, it might even win a game or two for us.

7. The offensive line also cannot possibly be as bad as they were last year, so they will be better, I think considerably better, which will translate into more yards, more points, more wins.



BYU should score 70 points on Virginia, but they probably won't because of new coaches, new scheme, etc, but if they put up 45 points, it will be a good sign.



BYU will be as balanced this year as they have ever been, both the passing game and the running game will be as good as they have ever been at BYU.



Texas will have their hands full with BYU, with a little luck, BYU will win that game. Then BYU will beat Utah, and the following week will sit at 4-0, and ranked int he top 20.

Prepare yourself for disappointment.

Offensive Illogic. Spock would never have been so illogical or impulsive.



Now, if you meant "my offensive prediction" or "My personal line of thinking relative to Offensive production", fine, I will give that to you. But, You clearly have been sneaking and imbibing ALOT of wine from the Church of the Undefeated." ;-) it sounds wonderful. But not logical.

1. 100% agree.

2. Mostly true. Williams may get there, but no way is the best.

3. Logically true. Except, may struggle early, as in 4.

5. Probably logical, consider 4.

6. 100% agree.

7. Probably true, after two or three games of gelling and sterling into go hard, go fast.



70 points--you almost fell over in a drunken stupor on this one.



Almost unmitigated optimism. Way to pull yourself back ;-) but I share the potential you have listed. And kudos to be safe on your QB prediction. You may have understated how much better both could be.

BYU has scored 70 points only 4 times since 1980--two of those were in 1980, the others in 1989 (Utah) and 2001 (Tulane).



They've score 60 or more only 13 times in the same span. It's only happened once for Bronco (62 against AFA in 2005), twice for Crowton, and the other 10 were under Lavell from 1980 to 1990. No BYU team broke 60 points from 1991-2000.



So to ask for 70 points is to ask for something that BYU only does every eleven years going back to 1980.



Asking for 60 points is asking for something that only happens once every 11 years going back to 1991.



That's a pretty big leap of faith.

I also don't think our defense is going to allow UVA past 25, so it's hard to envision Bronco/Anae keeping the playbook open up to 70 points in the first game of the season. The prudent thing to do would be to lock down the playcalling once the game is in hand to reduce the amount of exposure opposing teams father down the schedule have to the new offense.

snoscythe wrote:
BYU has scored 70 points only 4 times since 1980--two of those were in 1980, the others in 1989 (Utah) and 2001 (Tulane).



They've score 60 or more only 13 times in the same span. It's only happened once for Bronco (62 against AFA in 2005), twice for Crowton, and the other 10 were under Lavell from 1980 to 1990. No BYU team broke 60 points from 1991-2000.



So to ask for 70 points is to ask for something that BYU only does every eleven years going back to 1980.



Asking for 60 points is asking for something that only happens once every 11 years going back to 1991.



That's a pretty big leap of faith.

Interesting stats thanks for posting

I might not agree with all of it, but I don't find any of the logic offensive ;)

I too love the optimism. UVA's defense won't allow 40 points all year from ANYONE, much less 70, at home, against a team with an inexperienced qb, running a new system, from a new OC.



If we put up 20 points I'm stoked ... and we'll win. 20-13 (2 TDs + 2 FGs vs. 1 TD + 2 FGs)

Two TDs and a field goal or two with a new QB running a new O under a new OC would be success in my book.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

BYU 14. UVA 13.



KVA and BK play a big role.

Every time I hear someone say this is the best set of receivers Byu has ever had I'm reminded of 2004.



Difference is that in 04' we didn't hype our WR's as much as we are now.

Collie and Watkins and co. actually did it.



As it is right now, I'd take Watkins and Collie over Ridley/Apo Hoffman.

While I'm at it I'd take John Beck passing the ball too.



Every pre-season we have the best team ever... What I hope is that after this season I will KNOW that Hoffman/ridley/apo are better than the 04 crew

stgeorgefan wrote:
Every time I hear someone say this is the best set of receivers Byu has ever had I'm reminded of 2004.



Difference is that in 04' we didn't hype our WR's as much as we are now.

Collie and Watkins and co. actually did it.



As it is right now, I'd take Watkins and Collie over Ridley/Apo Hoffman.

While I'm at it I'd take John Beck passing the ball too.



Every pre-season we have the best team ever... What I hope is that after this season I will KNOW that Hoffman/ridley/apo are better than the 04 crew

It reminds me of the 2012 reports of Hoffman and Apo being unstoppable tree climbers - which turned out to be half true.



To his credit, Apo has not been blaming everyone in sight for his poor showing last year. He did indicate that he was injured and lacking confidence. This year - says he is healthy and confident. Others say that after his demotion - "he has been a different man re work ethic." He jas been diving for balls, etc. So - maybe. I hope Hoffman is fully recovered. Let's not forget gritty, Logan guy, Falslev. He will catch a few. Others might. I hope TH has time to throw.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

BerliNY wrote:
I too love the optimism. UVA's defense won't allow 40 points all year from ANYONE, much less 70, at home, against a team with an inexperienced qb, running a new system, from a new OC.



If we put up 20 points I'm stoked ... and we'll win. 20-13 (2 TDs + 2 FGs vs. 1 TD + 2 FGs)

If we can't put up more than 20 points I will most definitely not be stocked. riley nelson has really really lowered our expectations.