UVA will beat BYU

...their fans claim:



http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=190&f=2922&t=11777989" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Those fans are viewing this upcoming season through whatever type of goggles a Cavalier wears.



One of them is confidently predicting a double-digit win. They won't even score double digits....



Another fan said something about this being the first he's heard about BYU having an athletic QB. But that's not surprising since the same guy also posted on the CNN forum that this is the first he's heard about the United States being in debt to China.

But they also thought they were going to win the "war of the northern aggression." :-) And they almost did. I don't begrudge or challenge their optimism.

Does the fact that BYU fans (not to say you are MARS) MIGHT act incredulous to UVA fans thinking they will win say more about BYU fans overconfidence? As in, "Can you believe those UVA fans actually think they will win? On their own home turf, no less???? Pffffff. What a joke." Sounds kind of pot and kettle arrogant or over confidence to me. Sounds like an Ohio State, Alabama, or just about any BCS fan. But this thread-line did get my attention. :-)

We all have to remember that their team is currently undefeated too. They are also probably getting all of the positive reports from the teams media just like every team does. Nothing unusual. The fan pessimism comes after the first loss.

I don't blame them at all for predicting a win. What's the point of being a fan if you aren't optimistic about the upcoming season? I don't hold their optimism against them.



What's I do hold against them is their ignorance behind their predictions. They don't seem to understand much about BYU yet they claim confidence in a double digit win.



There is absolutely no way BYU gets blown out against Virginia. In the off chance that BYU loses it'll be a close loss with a LOT of bad luck. Anyone who knows anything about our defense would hesitate to predict being able to score enough to win by double digits, even after we've lost our CBs.



On the other hand, it won't take much luck in our favor to really take off on offense and have the game in hand in the 3rd quarter. The defense will do its job. Whether BYU wins and by how much is solely up to the offense.

And special teams. D could struggle a bit too. Virginia will be about like Ole Miss, GT, WSU, UW the last couple of times, etc. Very beatable, but capable of causing some problems. The year UW lost every game, we need the Jake Locker celebration penalty to eke out a 1 point win.



I hope our team respects UVA. They have beaten us before when we were favored.



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BYU is not going to roll over Virginia and neither is UVA going to roll over the Cougs. This game will go down to the wire. Anyone remember the home and away series with UVA back in 1999 and 2000? Virgina came into Provo in '99 and eeked out a 5 point win (45-40) and the next year UVA jumped out to a 21-0 lead before Brett Engemann engineered a second half comeback to win 38-35. With BYU's D reeling at the corners and not being as tough as last season, coupled with Anae trying to implement a new run and gun, pro-style offense with a play every 12 seconds (absurd) with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt, this is likely to come down to who ever commits the least amount of mistakes. Virgina will be able to throw the ball somewhat successfully, so that will help their chances. And remember... this is at Virginia... in the heat... in the humidity... where Y players are going to cramp up a lot.

Wolfman wrote:
BYU is not going to roll over Virginia and neither is UVA going to roll over the Cougs. This game will go down to the wire. Anyone remember the home and away series with UVA back in 1999 and 2000? Virgina came into Provo in '99 and eeked out a 5 point win (45-40) and the next year UVA jumped out to a 21-0 lead before Brett Engemann engineered a second half comeback to win 38-35. With BYU's D reeling at the corners and not being as tough as last season, coupled with Anae trying to implement a new run and gun, pro-style offense with a play every 12 seconds (absurd) with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt, this is likely to come down to who ever commits the least amount of mistakes. Virgina will be able to throw the ball somewhat successfully, so that will help their chances. And remember... this is at Virginia... in the heat... in the humidity... where Y players are going to cramp up a lot.

I don't think the history from this series 13 years ago is much of a basis for an argument. Not a single player or coach was part of that series then. I do agree that the game could be close and that the heat/humidity could be a factor, but I still like our chances. I also agree that the team with fewer mistakes will likely be the winner (although I think BYU can make a few mistakes and still win, but UVA will likely need very limited mistakes if they hope to win)

BYULV wrote:
I also agree that the team with fewer mistakes will likely be the winner (although I think BYU can make a few mistakes and still win, but UVA will likely need very limited mistakes if they hope to win)

Ding Ding Ding!!! We have a winner!!!



This is exactly how the outcome of the game will play out. BYU can afford a couple drive-killing mistakes or give up a ridiculous TD on defense and still win. But that scenario will make for a very close game and throwing of things at the TV. Virginia will win this game if #1) they play as close to mistake-free as is reasonably possible and #2) BYU pulls a few bone-head plays. If both teams play sloppy football, as is often the case in game 1, then BYU has the edge and will win.



This scenario in reverse would also describe the BYU vs Texas game. Texas can afford a serious mistake or 2 and still win. But if BYU plays a squeaky-clean game with both energy and discipline then any serious mistake(s) by Texas will lead to a Cougar Win. That is how BYU (or any team really, except for the rare super-dominant teams that occur once per decade or so) will have to play to go undefeated. The reason undefeated seasons are so rare is that a team has to have the perfect storm of good luck when the better (or equal) team has bad luck when those 2 teams are facing off on the field.....and that has to happen every single week of the year.



Of course, luck favors the prepared. So a handful of teams have a decent chance of going undefeated, while other teams have essentially no real chance. But in reality there are very few teams that would be able to play the same schedule more than once and go undefeated multiple times.

Wolfman wrote:
with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt...

where'd you pull this number from? Thin air? Wherever it's from. It's wrong



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ABYUFAN wrote:

with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt...

where'd you pull this number from? Thin air? Wherever it's from. It's wrong



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You are correct. He played the 2nd half vs BSU and then 2 full games. He also had a few plays in earlier games - some were significant. So lets add that all up - and yes - more like 3 games at D1 level.



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Bronco is a collective -4 in turnovers in the season opener. The only game w/ a positive turnover margin was last year w/ +2.

Cougarbib wrote:

Wolfman wrote:
with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt...

where'd you pull this number from? Thin air? Wherever it's from. It's wrong



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You are correct. He played the 2nd half vs BSU and then 2 full games. He also had a few plays in earlier games - some were significant. So lets add that all up - and yes - more like 3 games at D1 level.



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He played in 6 games, starting two, you seem to think that half of one game and parts of 3 others equals "1 game" played, Wolfman thinks that it equals zero. At least we all agree that it is more than the UVA QB has under his belt.

ABYUFAN wrote:

ABYUFAN wrote:

with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt...

where'd you pull this number from? Thin air? Wherever it's from. It's wrong



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You are correct. He played the 2nd half vs BSU and then 2 full games. He also had a few plays in earlier games - some were significant. So lets add that all up - and yes - more like 3 games at D1 level.



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He played in 6 games, starting two, you seem to think that half of one game and parts of 3 others equals "1 game" played, Wolfman thinks that it equals zero. At least we all agree that it is more than the UVA QB has under his belt.

10 games - 74 passes in 2011 for Watford as a true freshman. He red-shirted in 2012. So, IDK. Coin toss or edge to Watford. Two years in the system.



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So it's the extra year in the system - and a bad system at that - that gives Watford the edge over Hill? And praytell, what system does he have two years experience in? Virginia has a new offensive coordinator too. Steve Fairchild in January to be the OC after spending 2012 w/ the Chargers.



So he threw 74 passes in ten games? Nice cherry picking. Want to see the rest of his passing stats - beyond his 74 attempts? Warning, they're not pretty:



30 of 74 for 346 yards with 3 TDs and 4 INTs, 82.38 PER, 40.5% completion, 4.68 yards per attempt.



THill threw 71 passes last year in six games. His stats: 42 of 71 for 425 yards with 4 TDs and 2 INTs, 122.39 PER, 59.2% completion, 5.99 yards per attempt.



Big advantage THill & BYU.

Mars wrote:


BYU's offense generally looks awful in season opening games, especially on the road, and the longer road trip the worse, especially to the south or east.

That is an odd statement. BYU has not lost a season opener since 2006. Even Quarterback by committee year yielded an opening win. The only season opener we have lost on the road under Bronco Mendenhall was 2006 at Arizona. We are 3 wins 5 losses under Bronco Mendenhall for the first road game of the season so that is a concern, however, generally we win season opening games. The big concern under Bronco Mendenhall is not the opener, it is game 3 of the season. He has only won 1 third game of the season.

rblack wrote:
The big concern under Bronco Mendenhall is not the opener, it is game 3 of the season. He has only won 1 third game of the season.

Which is Utah this year. Uh-oh!

ABYUFAN wrote:

with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt...

where'd you pull this number from? Thin air? Wherever it's from. It's wrong



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Um, Hawaii and Utah State last year = 2 games. One drive against Boise State doesn't count.

Cougarbib wrote:

Wolfman wrote:
with a QB with a whole 2 games under his belt...

where'd you pull this number from? Thin air? Wherever it's from. It's wrong



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You are correct. He played the 2nd half vs BSU and then 2 full games. He also had a few plays in earlier games - some were significant. So lets add that all up - and yes - more like 3 games at D1 level.



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TH didn't play the entire 2nd half against Boise State... Bronco decided to stick with Nelson the whole game except for the last series. Made a lot of sense too... stay with a guy who was getting shutout the entire game and only make a change for the last series and then go for two after your back-up finally gets you a TD so you can lose the game 7-6 since their D was owning you the whole night. :blush: