2015 Recruiting - BYU's best class ever?

A lot of attention for the recent 2014 recruits and rightly so. It's looking like a very solid recruiting class. I'm still hoping Damien Mama commits.



But we have two 4* commits already for 2015 in Dylan lake and [http://www.cougarcorner.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=14133&p=158088&hilit=tafua#p158088]Mika Tafua[/url]. Already the 2015 class is looking like the best BYU class eve especially since one of the 4* recruits is a CB.



Oh and for those of you who don't think stars matter check out the offers for 2015.

what recruiting service are you getting your info from? Usually Scout.com has higher rankings than Rivals when it comes to Byu guys.



As far as 2015 recruiting goes, who know. Two 4 star guys is hardly "best ever".

Go back to Gary Crowton;s 2002 class and we had a top 25 class national haul. ( Walt Williams 5 star CB, never played a down) 3 5 star guys... 2 of them busts.



What I like to do is go back and rank recruiting classes after the players have gone through..



How about Curtis Brown, Harvey Unga, Bryan Kehl... 2 star guys.. Max Hall and John Beck..3 star guys.. You could argue that Byu's best performers since the star system came out were 2-3 star guys....

stgeorgefan wrote:
what recruiting service are you getting your info from? Usually Scout.com has higher rankings than Rivals when it comes to Byu guys.



As far as 2015 recruiting goes, who know. Two 4 star guys is hardly "best ever".

Go back to Gary Crowton;s 2002 class and we had a top 25 class national haul. ( Walt Williams 5 star CB, never played a down) 3 5 star guys... 2 of them busts.



What I like to do is go back and rank recruiting classes after the players have gone through..



How about Curtis Brown, Harvey Unga, Bryan Kehl... 2 star guys.. Max Hall and John Beck..3 star guys.. You could argue that Byu's best performers since the star system came out were 2-3 star guys....

I see your point and I certainly wouldn't say that the 2015 recruiting class is the best class ever yet either. Having said that, I think the reason some of BYU's best players ever were the 2-3 star guys is simply because that's mostly what we get - 2 and 3 star guys. It's a numbers game and as with anything that's a numbers game the law of averages always applies. Of course if we get 100 three star guys and 2 five star guys, most of our best guys will end up being the three star guys. When you play out the percentages, I'm sure most 4 and 5 star guys around the country perform at a higher level.

I'm pretty sure that all of BYU's 5 star recruits have bombed out. I can't say about 4 star guys because I don't know who they were and if they stayed in the program or not.

frdbtr wrote:
I'm pretty sure that all of BYU's 5 star recruits have bombed out. I can't say about 4 star guys because I don't know who they were and if they stayed in the program or not.

Recent 4-star recruits:



2006 - James Lark (QB), Matangi Tonga (DL???)[both were 3-star on Rivals.com]



2007 - Jason Munns (QB), Marcus Matthews (WR), Cade Cooper (Juco QB???), Magnum Mauga (Juco DE???), Devin Mahina [Mahina was 4-star on Rivals.com, 3-star on Scout.com, everyone else was a 3-star on Rivals.com]



2008 - Austin Holt (TE/DL), Bernard Afutiti (Juco DL???), Tevita Hola (Juco DL??)[all 3-stars on Rivals.com - only 4-star on Rivals.com was Jake Murphy - who is now starting TE at the Ewetes]



2009 - KVN, Richard Wilson (TE), Craig Bills (Safety), Adam Hine (RB)[KVN and Bills only 4-stars on Rivals.com]



2010 - Jake Heaps (QB), Zac Stout (MLB), Graham Rowley (OL??), Ross Apo (WR), Bronson Kaufusi (DE)[Stout and Rowley were 3-stars on Rivals.com]



2011 - Ryker Matthews [3-star on Scout.com, 4-star on Rivals.com]



2012 - Tanner Mangum (QB), Troy Hinds (OL)



2013 - Brayden Kearsley (OL)



I know nothing about Tonga, Cooper, Mauga, Afutiti, Hola, or Rowley. Looks like mostly Juco talent that didn't pan out. (??)



I think it's safe to say that Lark, Munns, and Holt underachieved.



Marcus Matthews had the game-winning catch against USU a couple of years ago and has been a good player - but not 4-star. Heaps and Stout were obviously busts.



KVN is the only 4-star recruit that has delivered.



Mahina, Kaufusi, Apo, Bills, Ryker Matthews and Wilson have seen good playing time and could still prove 4-star value. We can still expect big things from Hine, Mangum, Hinds, and Kearsley, but too early to evaluate.

Also, to pour on some lemon-juice on this paper cut:



Rivals.com lists Riley Nelson as a 2006 2-star SAFETY recruit for Utah St. Scout.com lists RN as a QB prospect, but UNRANKED. Ouch! And we had a 4-star recruit in Lark on the bench and future NFL QB Brad Sorenson as a redshirt on the 2009 roster.

FurriousCougar wrote:

what recruiting service are you getting your info from? Usually Scout.com has higher rankings than Rivals when it comes to Byu guys.



As far as 2015 recruiting goes, who know. Two 4 star guys is hardly "best ever".

Go back to Gary Crowton;s 2002 class and we had a top 25 class national haul. ( Walt Williams 5 star CB, never played a down) 3 5 star guys... 2 of them busts.



What I like to do is go back and rank recruiting classes after the players have gone through..



How about Curtis Brown, Harvey Unga, Bryan Kehl... 2 star guys.. Max Hall and John Beck..3 star guys.. You could argue that Byu's best performers since the star system came out were 2-3 star guys....

I see your point and I certainly wouldn't say that the 2015 recruiting class is the best class ever yet either. Having said that, I think the reason some of BYU's best players ever were the 2-3 star guys is simply because that's mostly what we get - 2 and 3 star guys. It's a numbers game and as with anything that's a numbers game the law of averages always applies. Of course if we get 100 three star guys and 2 five star guys, most of our best guys will end up being the three star guys. When you play out the percentages, I'm sure most 4 and 5 star guys around the country perform at a higher level.

The Cougs have had there fair share of 4 star guys.



All 5 star guys never did much. KVN the only one to go All American.



James Lark is a big ? for me. Had he been given more reps and started in front of RN, I think he could have been really good. Adam Hine has yet to prove anything.

The lineman that are ranked high almost always are starters and contribute a lot. The skill position guys we get that are high rated are much more of a risk.



I still think 3 star guys have been are best recruits as far as career production. Regardless of how many 3 star guys we get they almost always out perform the 4-5 star guys over the course of their careers.

stgeorgefan wrote:

stgeorgefan wrote:
what recruiting service are you getting your info from? Usually Scout.com has higher rankings than Rivals when it comes to Byu guys.



As far as 2015 recruiting goes, who know. Two 4 star guys is hardly "best ever".

Go back to Gary Crowton;s 2002 class and we had a top 25 class national haul. ( Walt Williams 5 star CB, never played a down) 3 5 star guys... 2 of them busts.



What I like to do is go back and rank recruiting classes after the players have gone through..



How about Curtis Brown, Harvey Unga, Bryan Kehl... 2 star guys.. Max Hall and John Beck..3 star guys.. You could argue that Byu's best performers since the star system came out were 2-3 star guys....

I see your point and I certainly wouldn't say that the 2015 recruiting class is the best class ever yet either. Having said that, I think the reason some of BYU's best players ever were the 2-3 star guys is simply because that's mostly what we get - 2 and 3 star guys. It's a numbers game and as with anything that's a numbers game the law of averages always applies. Of course if we get 100 three star guys and 2 five star guys, most of our best guys will end up being the three star guys. When you play out the percentages, I'm sure most 4 and 5 star guys around the country perform at a higher level.

The Cougs have had there fair share of 4 star guys.



All 5 star guys never did much. KVN the only one to go All American.



James Lark is a big ? for me. Had he been given more reps and started in front of RN, I think he could have been really good. Adam Hine has yet to prove anything.

The lineman that are ranked high almost always are starters and contribute a lot. The skill position guys we get that are high rated are much more of a risk.



I still think 3 star guys have been are best recruits as far as career production. Regardless of how many 3 star guys we get they almost always out perform the 4-5 star guys over the course of their careers.

If the 3 star recruit guys were truly better contributors than the 4/5 star recruit guys, the best teams in the country every year wouldn't be the schools getting all the 4/5 star recruits - like Alabama for instance.



Now, the reason BYU's 4/5 star guys haven't panned out? I personally think we haven't had enough of them for it to be a large enough sample size to be anything statistically significant. If I'm wrong on that, the conclusion is definitely NOT that the 3 star recruit guys are better, because that's just not true generally speaking. The question then would be, why does BYU struggle to develop these 4/5 star recruits the way they should be? One thing to consider is things like BM not starting KVN when he was a freshman just because he was a freshman.

Alabama has 4 and 5 star busts too numerous to count. But when you recruit 10 per year or more - you get some winners too.



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Cougarbib wrote:
Alabama has 4 and 5 star busts too numerous to count. But when you recruit 10 per year or more - you get some winners too.



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Which is exactly my point. Obviously not all 4/5 stars are going to pan out. But I guarantee you if you run all the numbers, a higher percentage of the 4/5 star guys turn out to be great than the 3 star guys.

FurriousCougar wrote:

Alabama has 4 and 5 star busts too numerous to count. But when you recruit 10 per year or more - you get some winners too.



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Which is exactly my point. Obviously not all 4/5 stars are going to pan out. But I guarantee you if you run all the numbers, a higher percentage of the 4/5 star guys turn out to be great than the 3 star guys.

Probably. But many are entitled, lazy, selfish, and over-confident and thus are less coachable and do not work hard. Being on a team full of stars may actually make them realize they need to work. And maybe the lack of competition at schools like BYU may keep them over confident.



Maybe that is the 2 star advantage - chip on their shoulder - something to prove.

Cougarbib wrote:

Cougarbib wrote:
Alabama has 4 and 5 star busts too numerous to count. But when you recruit 10 per year or more - you get some winners too.



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Which is exactly my point. Obviously not all 4/5 stars are going to pan out. But I guarantee you if you run all the numbers, a higher percentage of the 4/5 star guys turn out to be great than the 3 star guys.

Probably. But many are entitled, lazy, selfish, and over-confident and thus are less coachable and do not work hard. Being on a team full of stars may actually make them realize they need to work. And maybe the lack of competition at schools like BYU may keep them over confident.



Maybe that is the 2 star advantage - chip on their shoulder - something to prove.

Exactly Bib.



This is why ( IMO ) byu does better with 3 star guys than 4-5 star guys. CULTURE



Ben Olson - 5 stars, doesn't get in during the USU game, gets butt hurt and transfers.



Jake Heaps - 5 stars, gets demoted and transfers

The list goes on and on. The big time recruits feel entitled to play right away. We all know that Bronco prefers grit over talent. He makes everyone earn what they get. Some 4-5 star guys just aren't motivated enough to stick it out at byu and earn their stripes.



KVN got a DUI WHICH in turn made him have to earn everything he has been given.



Development I'm sure is part of the equation. Being over ranked is also part of it too. IMO the biggest reason though is how Byu runs it's program. hard work > talent

The star system is very good at certain positions (OT, DE/OLB, CB, WR(excluding slot guys)) and not so good at others (QB, RB, TE, ILB, S) in part because of what is needed to perform well in those positions in college, and in part because of the BYU scheme.



Part of my point is that the two 4* recruits are a CB (which in my opinion makes this class the best because Lake will actually play for BYU) and a DE.



The other part is we have three comits so far for 2015 and two of them are 4* guys which makes for a better ratio than any year so far. Who knows how Sedgwick will end up in terms of how the recruiting services will rank him but I'd guess 3* at least.