My Expectations of Taysom Hill

Here are my expectations of Hill.



Sophomores, according to my database, have played in 100 games for BYU since 1987. This makes his per game stats easy to calculate. If you take the averages of all those sophomore QB games, his average game and season stats should look something like the below. Those are what I expect him get.



19.4 of 32.5 for 266.8 yards with 1.7 TDs, 1.1 INTs and a 138.91 PER. BYU should average around 27.9 points per game.



Over the course of a season that makes out to:

233 of 390 for 3202 yards, 20 TDs, and 13 INTs anda 138.91 PER.



If I were BYU coaches, I show him the expectations and then set some goals above that. Those stats only yield a .598 completion percentage. I'd have goals of a .625 percentage

a 145 PER and 25 TDs.



I think 430 pass attempts is a reasonable number (Anae averaged 468 in his six years at BYU, so take off an additional 40 attempts for running). So he would need about 270 completions for the completion goal. I'd keep the INTs at 13 and then to get to the 145 PER he would need about 3550 yards.



Of course, none of this changes the standard of a 135 PER.

Standard: 135 PER

Expectations: 223 of 390 for 3,202 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 138.91 PER

Goals: 270 of 430 for 3,550 yards, 25 TDs, 13 INTs, 145.28 PER



What think ye? Doable? Over-reaching? Underestimating?

I'd like to see him average less than 1 INT per game.

I think you are going to find that he will have more than 40 rushing attempts. He is so athletic that his first instinct when the play breaks down will be to tuck and run.

I took the 40 rushing attempts from his passing attempts. Beck and Hall averaged 53 rushes a season. So I expect Hill to be up around 90.

SpiffCoug wrote:
I took the 40 rushing attempts from his passing attempts. Beck and Hall averaged 53 rushes a season. So I expect Hill to be up around 90.

Are those actual rushes or sacks that are counted as rushes. I would think Hill will average about 10-15 rushes per game including sacks. He is a running QB, he is going to tuck and run every time he gets into trouble. As he matures, he won't do it as much, next year he will still be in the steep part of his QB learning curve and will use the run a bunch.

If Anae is truly (i) installing zone read into the playbook, and (ii) shooting for 90+ offensive plays per game, Hill's going to have an opportunity to put up gross numbers in the run unlike any other QB at BYU before, much less sophomores specifically, and he's going have plenty of opportunity to generate stats in the air.



Just for perspective, here are BYU's OPPG since 2003, as well as the national leader for the same year:

2012: BYU (#24) = 79.2; Marshall = 92.8 (the only team to exceed 90 OPPG in a season)

2011: BYU (#25) = 75.2; TTech = 85.3

2010: BYU (#22) = 73.8; Oklahoma = 87.6

2009: BYU (#50--last year of Anae) 70.0; Houston 84.2

2008: BYU (#28) = 72.2; Tulsa 80.5

2007: BYU (#22) = 78.2; Troy 83.2

2006: BYU (#19) = 69.5; NMSU 80.6

2005: BYU (#7) = 80.4; Missouri 82.8

2004: BYU (#19) = 76.7; BSU 81.4

2003: BYU (#49) = 73.2; TTech 85.6



I can't readily find the stats prior to '03, but as to the average BYU QB from 2003 to the present, if Hill gets 90 OPPG, he's going to have 197 more offense play attempts in the season. Add to that his skill set and the addition of the zone read, and, if healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 130+ rushes next season.

I think Hill will run it, but similar to Manziel. Pass first option if things break down, go ahead and make a play with your legs outside the pocket. Also, in a read-option play, he can run, but only if there is a clear lane outside.



In other words, he will not be running between the tackles, and will not be taking hits for the front 7 by design. I expect him to run it 8-12 times per game, out of 80+ plays

Manziel ran it 201 times last year. I'll be very surprised if he gets close to that number. I could see him being up near 130 with 150 being a high end.

Hill should have a better combination of experience and talent personally than the typical Soph BYU QB. But, then, the typical Soph BYU QB would still be sittin on rhe bwnch.



So - can you break down the 100 games by QB so we can see who was poppin up these stats. Detmer, Feterik, Young had about 2 iirc, McMahon had some. Heaps lowered the average.



So thosr 100 games may be skewed also to represent some of our most talented.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

There were some good Sophomores and some bad ones. I think the 100 games and the averages are pretty solid.



For instance if you just look at SO QBs since 2000, that's 47 games with an average PER of 123.95. But I think Hill will be better than almost all of them SO Berry (112.12), SO Beck (128.14), SO Engemann !112.66), and SO Heaps (111.42).



But I don't think he'll be as good as some of those pre-2000 SOs (who were 151.72 PER). SO Detmer (172.90) or SO Walsh (155.34).



I think he can be like SO Hancock (145.64) and SO Feterik (144.10).

And Soph Hall?

Cougs_Rule wrote:
And Soph Hall?

Hall had a 138 PER as a Soph. I'd take that. Especially considering it's been three seasons since we had a QB actually meet the PER standard.



The last three years, we've never had more than three consecutive games meeting the standard.



Max Hall's longest streak was eight games, but that was as a SR. He only met the standard six times as a SO.

Interestingly, 50 of the 100 games by Sophomores met the Standard.

First of all, "expectations" are problematic. sounds almost entitled. maybe "hopes" are a better word for fans and leave expectations to coaches. Unless they are Srs and have been flashing there wares or abs or hair or press conferences for that matter.



But, on topic, i expect/hope that Hill is coached and learns/accepts better than his predecessor that running into brick walls with impunity is dangerous. Like Chucky, Like Johhny, if Taysomy can stay healthy and run smarter not harder, and not be a one trick pony, he will do amazing things at BYU.



As to number of runs as a qb, my bet is that defenses will try to key in on the run and make THill beat them with the pass. so until he proves he can hurt them by passing, they will try and take away the most immediate, lethal threat. So i dont anticipate as many runs by THill has some on this thread. If he does, then Anae, like the Running-Man architect, will be on borrowed time. I just dont think that Anae will be that uni-dimensional. but who knows.

Expectations: A belief that someone should or will achieve something.



Fans are perfectly fine to have expectations, and those expectations are very different depending on what school you're a fan of (for example, so you can understand, the fans at KU have very different expectations than the fans at Alabama).

Cougs_Rule wrote:
First of all, "expectations" are problematic. sounds almost entitled. maybe "hopes" are a better word for fans and leave expectations to coaches. Unless they are Srs and have been flashing there wares or abs or hair or press conferences for that matter.

Heaven forbid I feel entitled to have a BYU QB actually perform at a level commensurate with that of the average BYU QB.



I'm such an entitled brat. I actually want AVERAGE production from the most important position on the team.



I'm a tool.



Taysom, I take it all back. You just go out there and do whatever you do and it'll be good enough for me.



Go ahead and win or lose every game, I just don't want to burden you with any expectations that you should be an AVERAGE player.

"Yes, Taysom, as a sophomore I EXPECT you to have a 135 PER, each and every game, the one and only true standard for every BYU quarterback who ever amounted to anything. if you dont meet my EXPECTATION you are dead to me and you may as well get out of town and let the next guy try to achieve that mark. I expect nothing less of anyone so don't take it personal. And don't forget, I AM a critical stakeholder for this BYU program, just ask Bronco what he thinks of me and my EXPECTATIONS."

Exactly.



I'm sure Bronco doesn't have any expectations of his players either. You know, like he doesn't expect his players to have a certain GPA, or live the Honor Code.



Yep, BYU is an expectation-free zone, because as well all know, expectation is really just code for entitlement.

Oh, now we are talking about Broncos expectations. I get it. Then why didn't we label this thread accordingly? ;-)

I don't think Bronco would have one problem with my expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if Bronco's expectations for his players are even higher than mine.