realignment implications

Most thought with BCS consolidation, WAC and one or two other conferences would fold with some teams moving up to BEAST, MWC, etc., and some getting pushed down a division or to Indy like Idaho and NMSU.



Instead, CUSA and Sunbelt are expanding - grabbing Idaho and NMSU and promoting some FCS schools up a level. The pool is growing instead of shrinking. Everyone wants a tiny shot at playoff money.



Not sure this affects BYU at all - but I can't help but wonder if a new division in between FCS and FBS is being born. Or maybe FBS just keeps growing.



BEAST is apparently now American Athletic Conference AAC not to be confused with ACC.



CUSA is eying 16 teams. Sunbelt is expanding, too. Deja Vu WAC.



Quiet at the top right now, but the bottom is scrambling while BIG 10 ponders whether to Go Bigger.



Maybe all the little guys should stock pile 16 or more teams and make their money on exit fees as the big guys cherry pick and stuff dominoes down the food chain.



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It seems like it's just a matter of time until the 64 team super division starts with 4-16 conferences. Depending on what happens with the Ed Obannon lawsuit, the push to pay players more and more, and an eventual lawsuit to alllow players to transfer, the schools will just move further and further to making college football being an all out business and the super division will happen. It'll then be left to see if the remaining D-1 teams can survive.

They're all sheep, they're all "me too" people, nobody uses their head. This makes no sense, and expanding the conference does not mean more money--it usually means less, has to be divided up more ways.



BYU is way, way better off staying independent, and the shakeout is not over yet. There are so many sheep out there, somebody's going over a cliff soon, so everybody will go over it too.



And just as the LDS church does not fit into other Christian molds, and is not accepted by other Christian faiths, BYU sports is the same. Nobody is going to bend their conference to accommodate BYU. None of the biggees are going to give up sunday play just to make BYU happy. Let's everybody get real. The LDS church is an "independent" by every definition, and BYU will remain so too. Let's all remember who we are, what we are, and why we are. If BYU were only about football and football power, and money--we'd cave to any big conference demands and join up; but it's not and never will be. It's time to stop being silly, stop talking about joining the Big-12 or some other conference--not going to happen.

golong wrote:
They're all sheep, they're all "me too" people, nobody uses their head. This makes no sense, and expanding the conference does not mean more money--it usually means less, has to be divided up more ways.



BYU is way, way better off staying independent, and the shakeout is not over yet. There are so many sheep out there, somebody's going over a cliff soon, so everybody will go over it too.



And just as the LDS church does not fit into other Christian molds, and is not accepted by other Christian faiths, BYU sports is the same. Nobody is going to bend their conference to accommodate BYU. None of the biggees are going to give up sunday play just to make BYU happy. Let's everybody get real. The LDS church is an "independent" by every definition, and BYU will remain so too. Let's all remember who we are, what we are, and why we are. If BYU were only about football and football power, and money--we'd cave to any big conference demands and join up; but it's not and never will be. It's time to stop being silly, stop talking about joining the Big-12 or some other conference--not going to happen.

Sunday play is a huge issue, but eventually BYU will be invited to sit at the big kids table -- most likely with the Big-12.



The same reasons you list that will preclude BYU's joining a conference are the very same reasons that will make BYU appealing to the big12. BYU is a unique institution with a unique fan base. The first institution with its own tv station. A winning tradition. A team that fills stadiums wherever it goes. A team that is able to secure independent tv contracts.



There isn't a single team outside the BCS conferences (except ND) that offers so much to a conference. Eventually a smart board will come to the conclusion that Sunday play issues can be worked around in order to gain all the benefits of adding BYU.



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Cougy_Monster wrote:

They're all sheep, they're all "me too" people, nobody uses their head. This makes no sense, and expanding the conference does not mean more money--it usually means less, has to be divided up more ways.



BYU is way, way better off staying independent, and the shakeout is not over yet. There are so many sheep out there, somebody's going over a cliff soon, so everybody will go over it too.



And just as the LDS church does not fit into other Christian molds, and is not accepted by other Christian faiths, BYU sports is the same. Nobody is going to bend their conference to accommodate BYU. None of the biggees are going to give up sunday play just to make BYU happy. Let's everybody get real. The LDS church is an "independent" by every definition, and BYU will remain so too. Let's all remember who we are, what we are, and why we are. If BYU were only about football and football power, and money--we'd cave to any big conference demands and join up; but it's not and never will be. It's time to stop being silly, stop talking about joining the Big-12 or some other conference--not going to happen.

Sunday play is a huge issue, but eventually BYU will be invited to sit at the big kids table -- most likely with the Big-12.



The same reasons you list that will preclude BYU's joining a conference are the very same reasons that will make BYU appealing to the big12. BYU is a unique institution with a unique fan base. The first institution with its own tv station. A winning tradition. A team that fills stadiums wherever it goes. A team that is able to secure independent tv contracts.



There isn't a single team outside the BCS conferences (except ND) that offers so much to a conference. Eventually a smart board will come to the conclusion that Sunday play issues can be worked around in order to gain all the benefits of adding BYU.



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BYU is perceived by snobs as being an undergraduate mill and is not considered to be an elite academic institution genarally - Mariott School MBA and MAC, J Ruben Clark JD and other exceptions exist. But generally.



Add a Medical School. Add some PHD programs. Chase academic credentials. The sports are already BCS worthy.



Or stay Indy and make it work as best we can.



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Sometimes expansion can be a defensive gesture, even in the BCS conferences. TCU was not added to the BigXII to expand the market or drive more viewership, it was done in an attempt to stymie TCU's growth to date and prevent them from further denting the market and recruiting advantages in Texas/Oklahoma enjoyed by over half of the conference. TCU was added in an essentially value-neutral transaction that prevented TCU from taking a bigger bite out of things down the road.

And a large portion of the alumni bases for the legacy Big 12 members live in or near the Dallas metroplex. Or, it is an easy and fun place to go for a conference road trip. I wouldn't be surprised if TCU has no home field advantage over Texas or Oklahoma when they come to town.

Stirfry wrote:
It seems like it's just a matter of time until the 64 team super division starts with 4-16 conferences. Depending on what happens with the Ed Obannon lawsuit, the push to pay players more and more, and an eventual lawsuit to alllow players to transfer, the schools will just move further and further to making college football being an all out business and the super division will happen. It'll then be left to see if the remaining D-1 teams can survive.

I don't think 64 or 4 x 16 is the magic number. There are rumors that the Big Ten's goal number is 20. Why would the PAC 12 expand (without Texas and Oklahoma)? And, despite the Florida State and Clemson rumors, the ACC still has a much larger footprint than the Big 12.



The interesting phenomenon right now is the expansion of the Group of 5, despite the NCAA rule that you must average 15,000 attendance to play at the FBS level. The majority of the MAC and half the Sun Belt should not be FBS schools if the rule was enforced. Despite this, Western Kentucky, UMass, Texas State, UTSA, and South Alabama recently made the leap from FCS to FBS. Appalachian State, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Southern Georgia, and Georgia State are moving up in the next year or so. [Most, if not all, of these newcomers do meet the minimum 15K attendance requirement, by the way].



The system is pretty sweet right now for the power conferences. The 5 power conferences share 75% of the pie. And only 3 "mid-majors" have joined the power conferences in the last 30 years - TCU, the Ewetes, and Louisville. The remaining 5 mid-major conference split 25% - and that 25% is going to be diced up even more as the newcomers move up to FBS. If this balance is disturbed, we will be more likely to see the power conference break off, but that won't happen any time soon with the new playoff deal in place for the next 12 years or so.

Is Sunday play that big of an issue? The rest of the conference can play on Sunday. The only real impact would be the championship games if BYU makes it to the final. If I was BYU I would be willing to join and say we will forfeit if we make it to the Sunday finals. In the first few years we would have a hard time getting there. Then if we do, there would be press about it being unfair to us and maybe the finals would be moved.



By forfeiting, we would lose the autobid to the NCAA but I bet we would get an invite.

scott715 wrote:
Is Sunday play that big of an issue? The rest of the conference can play on Sunday. The only real impact would be the championship games if BYU makes it to the final. If I was BYU I would be willing to join and say we will forfeit if we make it to the Sunday finals. In the first few years we would have a hard time getting there. Then if we do, there would be press about it being unfair to us and maybe the finals would be moved.



By forfeiting, we would lose the autobid to the NCAA but I bet we would get an invite.

And the ratings for those Sunday games that we forfeit? They would not be good. So the TV partners would be furious.

Basketball is the only sport that would get tv, I think. The minor sports, who would care. Basketball can't move to Monday due to the dance. Could we get to the finals with Kansas, Texas, and Kansas St in the league?

scott715 wrote:
Is Sunday play that big of an issue? The rest of the conference can play on Sunday. The only real impact would be the championship games if BYU makes it to the final. If I was BYU I would be willing to join and say we will forfeit if we make it to the Sunday finals. In the first few years we would have a hard time getting there. Then if we do, there would be press about it being unfair to us and maybe the finals would be moved.



By forfeiting, we would lose the autobid to the NCAA but I bet we would get an invite.

The network with TV rights to the championship game will not be liking any forfeit clause unless an alternate team is chosen to advance. Then the other championship team will claim that is unfair. Complicated. Ain't gonna fly.



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YNot wrote:

It seems like it's just a matter of time until the 64 team super division starts with 4-16 conferences. Depending on what happens with the Ed Obannon lawsuit, the push to pay players more and more, and an eventual lawsuit to alllow players to transfer, the schools will just move further and further to making college football being an all out business and the super division will happen. It'll then be left to see if the remaining D-1 teams can survive.

I don't think 64 or 4 x 16 is the magic number. There are rumors that the Big Ten's goal number is 20. Why would the PAC 12 expand (without Texas and Oklahoma)? And, despite the Florida State and Clemson rumors, the ACC still has a much larger footprint than the Big 12.



The interesting phenomenon right now is the expansion of the Group of 5, despite the NCAA rule that you must average 15,000 attendance to play at the FBS level. The majority of the MAC and half the Sun Belt should not be FBS schools if the rule was enforced. Despite this, Western Kentucky, UMass, Texas State, UTSA, and South Alabama recently made the leap from FCS to FBS. Appalachian State, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Southern Georgia, and Georgia State are moving up in the next year or so. [Most, if not all, of these newcomers do meet the minimum 15K attendance requirement, by the way].



The system is pretty sweet right now for the power conferences. The 5 power conferences share 75% of the pie. And only 3 "mid-majors" have joined the power conferences in the last 30 years - TCU, the Ewetes, and Louisville. The remaining 5 mid-major conference split 25% - and that 25% is going to be diced up even more as the newcomers move up to FBS. If this balance is disturbed, we will be more likely to see the power conference break off, but that won't happen any time soon with the new playoff deal in place for the next 12 years or so.

Not to quibble, but since you are talking Big 5 and not Big 6, a lot of BEAST teams moved up to Big 5. So you need to count those or talk Big 6 and then if you do that, a lit of CUSA and MWC teams moved up to BEAST even though TCU, BSU, and SDSU never played 1 game before bailing.



That does not necessarily invalidate your conclusion - but the math may be muddled.



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The Big East is no longer considered a power conference by the Big 5.

hawkwing wrote:
The Big East is no longer considered a power conference by the Big 5.

My point exactly. So all the teams that moved up from BEAST aka AAC to ACC or Big 10 or Big 12 should have been counted.



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Cougarbib wrote:

The Big East is no longer considered a power conference by the Big 5.

My point exactly. So all the teams that moved up from BEAST aka AAC to ACC or Big 10 or Big 12 should have been counted.



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That doesn't change the numbers currently in the big conferences, they have already moved so their numbers are already counted.

hawkwing wrote:

hawkwing wrote:
The Big East is no longer considered a power conference by the Big 5.

My point exactly. So all the teams that moved up from BEAST aka AAC to ACC or Big 10 or Big 12 should have been counted.



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That doesn't change the numbers currently in the big conferences, they have already moved so their numbers are already counted.

He said, "the power conferences added 3 mid-majors in the last 30 years." Thirty. I tried not to quibble. It is actually confusing - because BEAST was sort of a power conference that did not fully deserve to be one up until recently and now is a mid-major.



And one could quibble about whether Independent Penn State was a mid-major before joining The Big 11. One could quibble about whether, as you stated, the Big East teams already moved, or some are still in the BEAST but in process of moving.



But let's try to skip all that quibbling.



Bottom line is that consolidation of conferences continues to happen and conferences that have survived, almost always keep getting bigger. Then we could quibble about whether the WAC died because it went to 16 or died because it did not stay at 16.



Big West Football - gone

Southwest Conference - gone

WAC - gone

PAC 8 to 10 to 12 - flirted with even more and would if right teams

Big 8 to 12 - Exception 1 - down to 10 - future expansion rumors.

Big 10 to 11 to 12 to 14 IIRC - future expansion rumored

ACC keeps replenishing and went up to 12 or 14?

Big East decimated - AAC - Replenishing and adding to buffer future raids

SEC - grew to 14 IIRC - Rumors about more

CUSA - decimated - reloading - growing to buffer future raids

Sunbelt - See CUSA





You do not hear many rumors about conferences planning to shrink and those that get pilfered keep bringing teams up from the minor leagues - and growing.



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Cougarbib wrote:
He said, "the power conferences added 3 mid-majors in the last 30 years." Thirty. I tried not to quibble. It is actually confusing - because BEAST was sort of a power conference that did not fully deserve to be one up until recently and now is a mid-major.

The Big East used to be a power conference. The AAC is not.



If you look at the six FORMER power conferences (including what the Big East was a decade ago) and compare that to what the CURRENT five power conference will look like in the near future (not including the Big East or AAC) there are only THREE teams that have joined the party - TCU, the Ewetes, and Louisville. (I don't count former independents like Miami or Penn State because there is no question that they were part of the power structure then...and still are).



Big East in early 2000's (football members):



Syracuse (soon to ACC)

Rutgers (soon to Big Ten)

Boston College (now in ACC)

Pitt (soon to ACC)

Miami (now in ACC)

Virginia Tech (now in ACC)

West Virginia (now in Big 12)

[Temple] (demoted)



With the exception of Temple, these schools are or will soon be in one of the five power conferences.



C-USA 2004 (Div. 1 football):



Cincinnati

Memphis

Houston

Tulane

South Florida

East Carolina

*Louisville

*TCU

[Southern Miss]

[UAB]

[Army]



The AAC has become what C-USA was 10 years ago, minus:



TCU and Louisville (who have been promoted)

Southern Miss, UAB, and Army



Plus:

Temple (who was demoted from the Big East when it was a power conference)

SMU, UCF, and Tulsa (who all joined C-USA in 2005)

Exactly. Consolidation of conferences continues over decades as SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and PAC have all gotten larger. The Big 5 Conferences. Just a few years ago it was The Big 6 Conferences with MWC knocking at the door with what many believed was a realistic shot at becoming The Big 7th Conference.



But alas, The Big 5 Conferences took expansion steps which caused substantial consolidation and demotion of other conferences to keep MWC out of the party and killed Beast in the process.



The Utes and Frogs got a windfall gain out of all of this. Neither was really wanted. Defensive measures taken by Big 12 and PAC made this happen.



I agree that the Big Boys do not want to add their little brothers.



There may be, however, more expansion of The Big Four conferences at the expense of the ACC resulting in one more conference demotion. Hard to say. It will be harder to kill the ACC than it was to kill The BEAST and deal with the pesky MWC. The Big 4 would only want to expand a few teams more if they are confident ACC will get demoted. Then they actually end up with fewer conferences that can command a big share.



MWC also got a windfall gain out of all this when the dust all settled - at least for now, they have leap-frogged The Beast now known as The AAC.



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