How will Mika's 2013-14 stats compare to Davies 12-13?

Couple of people have postulated that Mika will come in and be significantly better than Davies is now. Other's believe that he'll produce essentially the same as Davies. Other's believe it will be a bigger drop off.



So, here's your chance to put your official prediction in. You can vote in the poll, but next year when we pull this topic up for comparison, only those who leave comments will get official recognition for being right.

I think he will get slightly worse overall totals, mainly because the focus of the offense will be the juniors Carlino and Haws. However, I think we will be a better team with the incoming players.

Significantly worse. He's a great high school player, but it will take him a couple years to get to where Davies is.

Fewer than 8 points and 5 rebs a game - as a freshmen.



I don't think he'll ever average as many points as Daves or even more than 14 pts in a seaosn. But I do think he can be a force on the glass.



I thin he'll be a better rebounder than point producer.

Typical freshman, won't get as many minutes and will take time to adjust to D1. His future is better than his first year.

As of this post, there is not a single vote for Mika to match Davies this year, let alone pass him. There are 10 that think he will do worse.

rblack wrote:
I think he will get slightly worse overall totals, mainly because the focus of the offense will be the juniors Carlino and Haws. However, I think we will be a better team with the incoming players.

I'm with you rblack. I think he'll get about 9 pts. and 7 rebounds a game and his defense will be somewhat less than Davis at first. I also think by conference time they will be a little better than this team was.

Freshmen who have averaged 9 points per game under Rose:

Matt Carlino 11-12: 10.8ppg

Tyler Haws: 09-10: 11.3ppg

Trent Plaisted 05-06: 13.6ppg



Sorry, but Mika is as talented as any of those guys offensively.



Freshmen who have averaged 7 rebounds per game under Rose:

None



Players who have averaged 7 rebouds:

Brandon Davies 12-13: 7.7

Brandon Davies 11-12: 7.7

Jonathan Tavernari 08-09: 7.2

Trent Plaisted 07-08: 7.7



So basically Mika is going to come in and be one of the best freshmen under Rose and one of the best rebounds as well?



Please. I'll be happy if he gives us 5 and 5.

I'll say about the same. Not because I have a logical argument to suggest that this will happen, but because someone's got to take the contrary position to all y'all. Go Mika! The most amazing freshman of all time! Prove me right!

hawkwing wrote:
Couple of people have postulated that Mika will come in and be significantly better than Davies is now. Other's believe that he'll produce essentially the same as Davies. Other's believe it will be a bigger drop off.



So, here's your chance to put your official prediction in. You can vote in the poll, but next year when we pull this topic up for comparison, only those who leave comments will get official recognition for being right.

I think I saw one person who said he would do better. And that wasn't exclusively, iirc, based on stat line. It's the intangibles of what a real post defender and rebounder bring.



Now if a poll was conducted, not skewed and slanted unfairly, comparing freshman year for Mika (since so many of you have said that Mika would not hold against the Sr Davies) then we might have a more fair comparison. But since a comparison is being made of a freshman vs a Sr and it is even in the ball park comparable, doesn't speak that well for Davies. Again, too bad, I thought his ceiling was higher.

I could see Mika replicating Davies' FR year stats - with maybe an additional rebound per game.



Davies FR year:

5.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 13.5 minpg. 54.5% points available pct, 53.9% fg%, 56.8% ft%.

Slightly worse than Davies. He might even get on par with his numbers, depending on what the offense looks like next year.



He will make Davies' freshman numbers look silly. (He will be playing a lot more minutes, though.)

How quickly the hyperbole fell off, which is good. It gives a much more realistic expectation for next year.



I expect Mika's production next year to be near Davies freshman numbers, and probably slightly better. But that's a far cry from some of the predictions we've seen in other posts that Mika would be better next year than Davies is this year.

I don't mean to sound authoritative, but there is NO WAY Mika is going to be anywhere close to where Davies is this year.



In my mind, if you go with slightly less, you have be thinking that he will be within 15-20% of Davies current production.



Even if you went with just 20% less production that would be 14.6 ppg and 6.1 rpg. I'm sorry, but he's averaging 16 points in high school, D1 is much a higher level than just one basket. That would also make Mika the HIGHEST scoring freshmen under Rose. Better than Jimmer. Better than Plaisted. Better than Hartsock. Better than Cummard. Better than Emery.



There's just NO way that is happening. Mika is not an offensively skilled big man. He's just not. He's not going to be the best offensive freshman at BYU since Cosic and Ainge (had they been allowed to play as FR).



He makes his living rebounding and cleaning up after his teammates. He MIGHT get five rebounds a game. But to think he's going to just come into D1 bball and just dominate and perform similar to a senior is very wishful thinking. I just can't see him being close to Davies.



But, I'm not going to be disappointed or calling for his scholarship or think he's not a D1 player if he does only average 5 and 4.

I would take Mika right now over Davies, unless he continues to play the way he did against SMU. That was by far his most aggressive game. When you are a power forward, and you spend the majority of your time on and around the 3 point line - shooting 25% from the arc - you aren't going to get much done.



Davies was aggressive against SMU. All we need is for someone to aggressively post down low against the 6'7 power forwards of the WCC. Davies either can't do it consecutively , or won't.



Mika is aggressive in the post, and just as athletic as Davies. I don't expect him to be better than Davies is right away, but I expect our team to be better next year, with Mika being the key focus instead of Davies. Davies has crumbled and not played smart, and I think Mika won't. He is a better player.



I think it is a shoe-in that he gets within 20% of Davies senior numbers. For a team that runs EVERYTHING through Davies each game in the half court, we don't get much out of him (Saint Mary's game aside.)

Davies has taken a handful of threes. On offense he hardly spends the majority of his time out there.



And by saying he'll be close to Davies (within 20%) you're then saying that he will be the best offensive freshman ever at BYU.

Mars wrote:


From Tony Jones, sportswriter for the SL Trib:



"Emery is a better player by far than Carlino..not close..Haws now is better than Zylstra, Mika as good as Davies."



https://twitter.com/Tjonessltrib/status/306913127738519554" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;





Or in other words, the only 2 starters BYU has that are better than Lone Peak's are Tyler Haws and Josh Sharp.

Too bad Sharp isn't a starter any more



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