(Bowl Scenarios Thread) Okay, so the Pac-10 SUCKS...

...at posting pertinent information about important things such as their Bowl Selection procedures on their website (what did you think I was referring to???). :D



I just spent a good chunk of time mapping out the 32 different W-L scenarios for their bowl eligible teams, assuming there was SOME semblance of order to how the Pac-10 sends teams to their Bowl Tie-ins. Then, after pouring over the internet, I was able to find a few sources ASSERTING there is no rhyme nor reason, but nothing concrete. GRRR!!!



Wikipedia cites an ESPN article by Ted Miller in which he cites this:

"The selection rule: If there is a tie for the Pac-10 championship, the head-to-head winner among the tied teams shall be awarded the Conference's top bowl position. In the event of a tie for any position in the standings other than the championship, the selecting bowl may choose its participant from among the tied teams."



Problem is, this is an article from last year. I don't know if it's still accurate (and it's also still ambiguous), since I recall hearing at the end of bowl season last year that the Emerald now gets #4 every year, unless it wants someone different for geographical reasons. It sounds as though the Pac-10 has done some tweaking.



The same guy wrote something else on his blog within the last week, but it's just as ambiguous! http://espn.go.com/blog/pac10



He says:

"Of Oregon State loses, the most likely scenarios have the Beavers dropping all the way to the Las Vegas Bowl, which is the conference's No. 5 bowl. Why? Because there are no tiebreakers in bowl selection procedures. If, say, four teams finish at 6-3 in conference play, the Holiday Bowl can pick any of them it wishes. "



What I know for certain (assuming this ESPN dude is correct AND using updated information (apparently from some SPECIAL internet to which I haven't access)), is that GIVEN a TIE for any spots between 2 and 6 in the Pac-10, the highest bowl gets its pick.



What NOBODY'S saying, is whether or not a Bowl in question (after the Rose, of course) MUST take the team with the best conference record (or, in case of a tie, its choice of the teams with the same conference record). Absurd example to illustrate my question: COULD the Holiday Bowl thumb its nose at spots 2-6 and pick TECHNICALLY bowl-eligible 7th-spotter UCLA ala the MWC contract with the Las Vegas bowl?



Anyone with information by way of links to reliable sources spelling it all out would be my HERO for a day, because I've got a WHOLE lot of scenarios that I'd love to share, but they are absolutely WORTHLESS without knowing what the HECK the Pac-10 idiots are thinking...

:roll:

GolfDiveNCougs wrote:
..

What NOBODY'S saying, is whether or not a Bowl in question (after the Rose, of course) MUST take the team with the best conference record (or, in case of a tie, its choice of the teams with the same conference record). Absurd example to illustrate my question: COULD the Holiday Bowl thumb its nose at spots 2-6 and pick TECHNICALLY bowl-eligible 7th-spotter UCLA ala the MWC contract with the Las Vegas bowl?



Anyone with information by way of links to reliable sources spelling it all out would be my HERO for a day, because I've got a WHOLE lot of scenarios that I'd love to share, but they are absolutely WORTHLESS without knowing what the HECK the Pac-10 idiots are thinking...

:roll:

The Pac-10 does do it by order of finish unless there is a tie.



So if Oregon is alone at #2 they go to the Holiday. If they are tied with 3 other teams then the Holiday gets their pick.



There are a few exceptions.



The Sun Bowl has a no repeat clause

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac10/tag/_/name/sun-bowl



The Emerald and Vegas rotate 4th and 5th picks each year. This year it is supposed to be Emerald 4th and Vegas 5th. As you noted they did "switch" spots last year as California and Arizona were a more obvious choice for the respective bowls involved.



I couldn't find any rock solid links to back up what I'm saying.

mormonrasta wrote:
The Emerald and Vegas rotate 4th and 5th picks each year. This year it is supposed to be Emerald 4th and Vegas 5th. As you noted they did "switch" spots last year as California and Arizona were a more obvious choice for the respective bowls involved.



I couldn't find any rock solid links to back up what I'm saying.

...and I thought the LV Bowl didn't HAVE to trade with the Emerald, and that as compensation they would get the 4 pick this year. but I may be wrong, I have no access to the special internet either...

Florwood wrote:

The Emerald and Vegas rotate 4th and 5th picks each year. This year it is supposed to be Emerald 4th and Vegas 5th. As you noted they did "switch" spots last year as California and Arizona were a more obvious choice for the respective bowls involved.



I couldn't find any rock solid links to back up what I'm saying.

...and I thought the LV Bowl didn't HAVE to trade with the Emerald, and that as compensation they would get the 4 pick this year. but I may be wrong, I have no access to the special internet either...

They didn't have to trade. They WANTED to. They wanted Arizona due to proximity and the fact that Arizona was EXCITED to be in the LV Bowl. The Emerald wanted Cal because of similar reasons. It was a mutual thing.

Here are some more links suggesting that bowl selection is based on conference finish.



They use the word Runner up in this link for the Holiday Bowl:



http://www.holidaybowl.com/holiday-bowl-history.html



They use the word 3rd Place not 3rd pick for the Sun Bowl.



http://www.sunbowl.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=157&Itemid=109

So my computer just ate my last response. Grr. I LOVE starting over when you know it just won't be as good the 2nd time. Annnyway...



Well, at least I can take solace in the fact that I'm not the only one without the fabled special internet. :D So despite the Pac-10's every effort to obfuscate the way they do things (though this time (probably) not to screw anybody over for their benefit, but just to make things as difficult to understand as possible, on principle alone), it looks like we've all reached a consensus that the Pac-10 bids DO in fact go generally in order, where the "higher ranking" bowl has choice over ties. The caveats to this are that the Sun Bowl can exercise its no-repeat-performance-rule IF it so chooses, and that the Vegas and Emerald bowls basically work out between themselves which teams between 4 and 5 make the most sense to them. I seemed to recall news last season that starting this year, the Emerald had gotten the deal to land them rights to the 4th place every year, but that they'll usually work with Vegas between the 4 and the 5 for optimal matchups (as they had last year). Smart of them, considering this gives them a decent chance of landing one of the two local NorCal schools from now on, and it probably REALLY doesn't matter too much to Vegas, as they'd likely get about the same amount of fans from basically any Pac-10 school, excepting maybe Wazzou...Would be interesting to see whether Vegas would actually turn DOWN an offer for the 4-seed if they thought they'd make more money off the 5. Right now, it's a good bet they'll take anything the Pac-10 wants to give them, since they know they can sell out a BYU crowd anytime they want to. If, however, perish the thought that BYU was ineligible next year (better yet, BYU is in the BCS, AND :utard: is under .500 :evil: ), whether Vegas would actually WANT, say, a 5-seed Stanford over a 4-seed Wazzou, since they'd actually depend on the Pac-10 school to carry some of the ticketing weight. It's funny that this year they've flipped the MWC Commish the bird over him suggesting that the BYU-Vegas card is getting stale, the Vegas Bowl stating that they "want the best team available, regardless who's played there in the past." Boy am I betting they'd be changing their tune if, say, Wyoming was class of the Conference next year (I know, I know), Utah was ineligible, and BYU was at a robust 4th place, 7-5 record. Something tells me they'd drop their "best competition" schtick to get butts in the seats in a HEARTBEAT. :roll: But I digress.



So it's assumed, then, that the Holiday is REQUIRED to take the #2 or it's choice of the #2's (insert your inner-monologue-fecal-matter-joke here), and the Sun, with unlikely exception of getting the same 3 twice (assuming they don't WANT the same 3 twice) must take the #3. Fair enough. That still leaves NOT MUCH, regarding the scenarios for who plays in Vegas and who plays in San Diego.



There are only two of the 32 possible outcomes affecting the Pac-10's Bowl-Eligible teams (5 games left involving at least 1 bowl-eligible team) that actually FOR SURE guarantee no ties for the 5th or the 6th place. And these two outcomes aren't extremely likely. Doesn't matter who wins the Civil War, but USC wins out, ASU upsets Arizona, and Washington upsets Cal. In these cases, Cal goes to Vegas and Arizona goes to San Diego. Literally ALL of the other 30 scenarios include a tie involving either the 5th or the 6th team, or both.



The scenarios given the "most likely" game outcomes are still about as clear as mud, as there are a lot of ties. A few things hammer some of it down, however.



If the favored team wins each game, (USC over UCLA, Arizona over State, USC over Arizona, Cal over Washington, and Oregon over State), Arizona will go to San Diego, and Oregon State will MOST likely end up in Vegas, humorously enough (if not sadly, as THEY go to the Rose bowl with a win next week). Oregon goes Rose, and there's a 4 way tie for 2nd, between Oregon State, USC, Stanford, Cal. Holiday, with 1st pick of those four, takes USC (biggest draw, local team). Sun bowl gets next pick, and I'D assume they would expect at least as much or more revenue from one of the NorCal schools than Oregon State, and if so, they don't have to take the Beav's if they don't want to anyway. That leaves the other NorCal school for the Emerald Bowl, and they wouldn't complain about getting either of them. So the Beavs go to Vegas.



If Oregon State WINS the Civil War, THEY get the Rose, and it all ripples down. Oregon is solo 2, so they go on Holiday. Stanford, Cal and USC tie for 3rd, so we'd likely see USC in the Sun Bowl (again, biggest draw). Emerald gets its pick of local schools, and who knows which they'd take, and Vegas would get the other one. If the Emerald was looking to diversify from last year, they'd take Stanford, as Cal played there last year. Dunno if they'd assume Cal would do a better job filling AT&T Park tho. My guess, they'll take Stanford and leave Cal to Vegas. Hmm. In any case, Arizona is solo 6th, and will go to San Diego in this instance as well.

That's an example of the question we actually DID find a satisfactory answer for. There are only tie-breaking procedures for the Rose Bowl. Positioning for all of the subsequent placements is based on conference record only, and the next bowl is able to pick whichever of the tied teams it wants.



So if all 4 in your example are 6-3, the Holiday Bowl will have its choice of the 4 teams, it's pretty much guaranteed in that instance, they'd take USC (due to marketablity), even if they doesn't have the best record against the other tied teams.



While the procedure for the Pac-10's placements in Bowl Games is doesn't GUARANTEE where their teams will play, you can more-or-less follow the money to make educated guesses where teams will fall in most scenarios.





But there's a lot of parity in the Pac-10 this year, which is a good thing for us (we won't actually be playing the 5th place team. Chances are we'll be playing the 2nd or 3rd). So it's pretty wide open. The only team we will pretty much guaranteed not play is Oregon (they are for sure #1 or solo #2).



But depending on the scenario resulting from the last 5 relevant Pac-10 games, we could end up playing literally ANY of the other 6 bowl-eligible teams.



5 of the remaining 6 could end up in Vegas. The only one that can't is UCLA; best they can hope for is a tie for 6th and San Diego, and even then, the possible 6th place ties are either UCLA-Arizona, and UCLA-USC. If, by some miracle, both they AND Arizona beat USC, and they end up tied with SC, I GUARANTEE the Poinsetta would still choose USC, just for the butts and the ratings. If UCLA tied Arizona for 6th (which can happen given only 4 of the possible 32 scenarios, each of the 4 requiring a UCLA and ASU upset, then a USC win over Arizona - the Cal-Wash and Civil war results don't matter in this instance), it's a good bet the Poinsetta would still take UCLA despite the loss head-to-head, just because LA is still a local team.



5 of the remaining 6 can also end up in San Diego. The only one that is guaranteed to do better (this is besides Oregon, remember) is Oregon State. Worst they can do is a 4 way tie for 2nd, meaning the worst they can do is the Vegas Bowl. In the vast majority of scenarios, the Vegas entrant will be involved in a tie of some sort. 12 possibilities will make the Vegas entrant the least desirable team in a higher-placed tie (which could be good or bad, depending on whether or not the team doesn't want to be there, or whether or not the team feels slighted and wants to take it out on someone). 12 other scenarios make the Vegas entrant the 1st choice of a 2- or 3-way tie for 5th. This could be good or bad for the same reasons as above. In only 8 of the 32 scenarios is there a definite solo 5th place team that would basically be guaranteed the Vegas Bowl. In 4 of those cases it would be Cal, and it's pretty certain the Emerald wouldn't try to take them instead, because in each of those scenarios Stanford will likely be available to the Emerald. No, that's not true. Hmm. Two of those eventualities could see the Sun Bowl taking the Cardinal IF they didn't want Oregon State again, leaving the Emerald to wheel-and-deal with Vegas. You see how contrived this is???



So basically, yeah, if there's a particular team you're hoping to play in the bowl game, just lemmee know, and I'll tell you who in the Pac-10 to root for the next two weeks, then just hope and pray that we can count on Pac-10 and Bowl Game greed to assure the placements we expect due to ties.

The way I look at it. All Pac-10 bowls want USC, duh. But I think their ideal 2nd choices differ.



Holiday- ideal 2nd choice Oregon (this is the lowest Oregon could drop). If they lose to OSU that could happen. 3rd choice would be Cal who will likely be 9-3 and nationally ranked going into the bowls.



Sun- ideal 2nd choice Arizona. AZ is the closest to El Paso and will bring the most fans. Ideal third choice is Cal see Holiday for reasons why.



Emerald- ideal 2nd choice Stanford. Bay area team that is not Cal. Ideal 3rd choice is probably Oregon St.



Vegas- ideal 2nd choice is Cal. 3rd choice Arizona due to proximity. Oregon St. might be the ideal 3rd choice if BYU is playing in the game.



Poinsettia- ideal 2nd choice Arizona. Cal won't drop this far and Arizona is closer and will bring more fans.