The 2013 Football Win / Loss Prediction Thread

If you messed up and predicted elsewhere do it here. If you are posting criticism of the projections made by others, but have not actually made one youself, man up or woman up and make one here. If you have one - make it here. IDK is an acceptable prediction. There are a ton of unknowns going into next season. The schedule is tough but very interesting.



I see 10 games that could go either way given ups and downs and officiating and good or bad fortune and all the stuff that happens. Some are tougher or easier.



I start 5-5 in my secret formula but adjust since 6 are road games and I get 4-6 and then add in the 2 sure wins and a likely bowl win given probable opponent caliber and bam.



7-6 to 8-5 after the Bowl Game.



We only have one QB with meaningful experience and very little of it. Depth and experience issue. FB? TE? OL has to rebuild. Offensive coaching staff learning a new scheme and how to work together. Players learning new scheme. Defense rebuild. More than a reload with all the graduations. Recruiting class - OK but not great. Punter gone. Kicker?



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And how accurate was your model last year? Just curious in a nice way.

Right now, I'm saying 5-7.



I've got us losing to Texas, Utah, Houston, Boise, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Nevada.



I was way off last year. I thought we would 11 games.

SpiffCoug wrote:
Right now, I'm saying 5-7.



I've got us losing to Texas, Utah, Houston, Boise, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Nevada.



I was way off last year. I thought we would 11 games.

I'm going to say 8-4 (regular season). I predict that BYU beats utah, houston, and Boise to add 3 more wins.

Cougs_Rule wrote:
And how accurate was your model last year? Just curious in a nice way.

I was spot on. This model works almost every year - I usually adjust based on seniors vs rebuilding, too - depth at key positions. Coaching stability. Resisted the temptation.



Last year, a lot of us made two.



If Riley stays healthy - which you and I knew would not happen

And one with what we actually expect.



I was tempted to say

If Hill and Williams stay healthy.



What I am saying is this is not a pessimistic, worst case prediction. Perhaps a tad optimistic given depth concerns.



You may recall calling me an apologist last year. 8 that could go either way last year. 4-4. Road and depth concerns. 3-5. Add 4 sure wins and a bowl win. 8-5. The key is that 50/50 and 60/40 and 40/60 games tend to split evenly.



In the glory years, historically, it was not unusual to schedule more than 6 sure wins. Some years there are also some sure losses. Like Miami - oops. We beat them anyway.

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I posted this in another thread - I'm moving it here... Here's how I see the season shaking out:



Aug. 31 at Virginia W 21-14

Sept. 7 Texas W 17-10

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W 24-10

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W 51-14

Oct. 4 at Utah State W 24-12

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W 31- 10

Oct. 19 at Houston W 34-31

Oct. 26 Boise State W 35-21

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin W 31-28

Nov. 16 Idaho State W 51- 0

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame W 27-21

Nov. 30 at Nevada W 35-17



I may be a bit optimistic



It should be noted that I also predict that the weeks of September 7, November 9, and November 23 we'll hear a certain bib-wearing poster complain about our AD being stupid and killing our team by scheduling 2 for 1s. We'll hear it so much that we'll be willing to shoot ourselves, but ultimately be glad that Corn-guy has taken over the world and taken away our guns,and hidden them all in an LDS church. So we'll just suffer in silence...

ABYUFAN wrote:
I posted this in another thread - I'm moving it here... Here's how I see the season shaking out:



Aug. 31 at Virginia W 21-14

Sept. 7 Texas W 17-10

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W 24-10

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W 51-14

Oct. 4 at Utah State W 24-12

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W 31- 10

Oct. 19 at Houston W 34-31

Oct. 26 Boise State W 35-21

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin W 31-28

Nov. 16 Idaho State W 51- 0

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame W 27-21

Nov. 30 at Nevada W 35-17



I may be a bit optimistic



It should be noted that I also predict that the weeks of September 7, November 9, and November 23 we'll hear a certain bib-wearing poster complain about our AD being stupid and killing our team by scheduling 2 for 1s. We'll hear it so much that we'll be willing to shoot ourselves, but ultimately be glad that Corn-guy has taken over the world and taken away our guns,and hidden them all in an LDS church. So we'll just suffer in silence...

If we go 10-2 with losses at ND and Wisconsin will you wish that one of those was a home game? Texas was a 2-1, but this one is in Provo - sweet.



But yes - I will attribute our 5 or 6 losses to a number of issues, including schedule. Others will loij for scapegoats among players and coaches - Witch Hunt. This will be the 4th straight year of that. The Bibster may long for a friendlier schedule but will actually enjoy the exciting oppoetunities and gracefully accept a few extra losses.



And if BYU goes 10-3 or Better, The Bibster will be dancing in the streets and at 11-2 or beyter, congratulating DM Cougar aka Coug's Rule for calling it.



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Cougarbib wrote:

I posted this in another thread - I'm moving it here... Here's how I see the season shaking out:



Aug. 31 at Virginia W 21-14

Sept. 7 Texas W 17-10

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W 24-10

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W 51-14

Oct. 4 at Utah State W 24-12

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W 31- 10

Oct. 19 at Houston W 34-31

Oct. 26 Boise State W 35-21

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin W 31-28

Nov. 16 Idaho State W 51- 0

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame W 27-21

Nov. 30 at Nevada W 35-17



I may be a bit optimistic



It should be noted that I also predict that the weeks of September 7, November 9, and November 23 we'll hear a certain bib-wearing poster complain about our AD being stupid and killing our team by scheduling 2 for 1s. We'll hear it so much that we'll be willing to shoot ourselves, but ultimately be glad that Corn-guy has taken over the world and taken away our guns,and hidden them all in an LDS church. So we'll just suffer in silence...

If we go 10-2 with losses at ND and Wisconsin will you wish that one of those was a home game? Texas was a 2-1, but this one is in Provo - sweet.



But yes - I will attribute our 5 or 6 losses to a number of issues, including schedule. Others will loij for scapegoats among players and coaches - Witch Hunt. This will be the 4th straight year of that. The Bibster may long for a friendlier schedule but will actually enjoy the exciting oppoetunities and gracefully accept a few extra losses.



And if BYU goes 10-3 or Better, The Bibster will be dancing in the streets and at 11-2 or beyter, congratulating DM Cougar aka Coug's Rule for calling it.



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Honestly bib, I've dropped the Cahoon thing, and have found an innner peace that makes me whole. Your life will be better if you let the 2 for 1 thing go. No one likes it. You're not alone.. Nevada and UState hate it when we do it to them... but it's the price one pays for the time being.

Talk to me after spring ball. Ill have a better feel for it then.



Having said that, I think 9 wins as follows:



Aug. 31 at Virginia W

Sept. 7 Texas L

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W

Oct. 4 at Utah State W

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W

Oct. 19 at Houston W

Oct. 26 Boise State W

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin L

Nov. 16 Idaho State W

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame L

Nov. 30 at Nevada W

I say two likely losses (both on the road) to WI and ND just because of the venue. We could easily win both however, because neither team was dominant last year and against good teams looked beatable.



I believe that we beat TX - just because it is at home, we played them close in Austin (with suspect QB talent), and our defense under Bronco's re-tooling is playing at another level. Word of caution, TX returns the same two QBs who beat us in Austin, if Bronco learns how to defend the zone-read, we win.

byucougar1 wrote:
I say two likely losses (both on the road) to WI and ND just because of the venue. We could easily win both however, because neither team was dominant last year and against good teams looked beatable.



I believe that we beat TX - just because it is at home, we played them close in Austin (with suspect QB talent), and our defense under Bronco's re-tooling is playing at another level. Word of caution, TX returns the same two QBs who beat us in Austin, if Bronco learns how to defend the zone-read, we win.

It's too bad Ziggy didn't have another year available. I don't think anyone could have run the read option against him with another year of experience.



Aug. 31 at Virginia 70% chance of win

Sept. 7 Texas 50%

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah 60%

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State 85%

Oct. 4 at Utah State 85%

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech 75%

Oct. 19 at Houston 85%

Oct. 26 Boise State 60%

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin 35%

Nov. 16 Idaho State 99%

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame 30%

Nov. 30 at Nevada 60%



I think USU (new staff, lots of grads), Houston (just terrible) and MTSU (OK for a sun belt team) should be pretty easy wins. GT almost goes in the same category. UVa has coaching issues. I predict 2/3 wins against Utah, BSU, and Nevada and 1/3 wins against Tx, ND, Wisc.



I predict 8-4 because I've probably underestimated one of USU, Houston, MTSU, GT and UVa. Could see 9-3, anything better would require some magic. 7-5 and 6-6 are certainly possibilities but anything worse would require some poor coaching in addition to the OL, DL, DB issues which I think are the biggest (although I think we are certainly capable of poor coaching on all levels).

9-3 record



Aug. 31 at Virginia W 24-13

Sept. 7 Texas L 17-27

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W 24-17

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W 37-24

Oct. 4 at Utah State W 27-17

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W 31- 10

Oct. 18 at Houston L 21-27

Oct. 25 Boise State W 27-21

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin L 20-31

Nov. 16 Idaho State W 51- 0

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame W 24-20

Nov. 30 at Nevada W 31-17



Texas and Wisconsin are the two toughest games. I think we steal one from Notre Dame on the road and take care of business against the Ewetes, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Houston, however, will sneak up on us. After 4 straight wins and beating up the ACC's Georgia Tech, the road trip to south Texas will find BYU flat. Houston will capitalize just enough to finish with a victory. An opportunity wasted. BYU will respond by beating Boise State in a competitive matchup.



Bowl Win over Arizona 27-20



Final Record: 10-3; ranked #19



There will be tons of conjecture about what could have been, but most fans will quickly forget that they would have been thrilled to know pre-season that BYU would finish with 10 wins and a top 25 ranking.



(Sets up a top 25 preseason ranking for 2014 and road to an invite to a 2014-15 access bowl.)

Why is everyone so high on Houston? They're terrible. It's probably the easiest game on the schedule other than IDst.

I'm looking at the predictions from last year, using the percentages thread. If we assume that if you predict 50% or more, you are predicting BYU to win, else you predict them to lose, Scott715 was the best at predicting the season results. He was correct on 10 of 12 games (He missed the OSU and SJSU games, the same as everyone else.) I'll trust his prediction the most, based off of past data.



As for this year, we have talked about 10 losable games this year, instead of 10 winnable games. I find the negative swing in the wording interesting, as for the most part we tend to be an optimistic fan group. It is very telling of the past three year and their effect on us.



I’m not ready to make a prediction for next year, as there will be a lot of things that will change my views as we learn of injuries and coaches in the next 6 months. If I had to guess, I expect a mediocre season. We are playing good teams, but none that I would call great. We have a good chance in every game, but we have serious issues on the o-line to worry about. That might be fixable with the coaching change, but I don’t know.



7-8 wins, but I’m not sure how yet, just a gut feel.

StatsCougar wrote:
I'm looking at the predictions from last year, using the percentages thread. If we assume that if you predict 50% or more, you are predicting BYU to win, else you predict them to lose, Scott715 was the best at predicting the season results. He was correct on 10 of 12 games (He missed the OSU and SJSU games, the same as everyone else.) I'll trust his prediction the most, based off of past data.



As for this year, we have talked about 10 losable games this year, instead of 10 winnable games. I find the negative swing in the wording interesting, as for the most part we tend to be an optimistic fan group. It is very telling of the past three year and their effect on us.



I’m not ready to make a prediction for next year, as there will be a lot of things that will change my views as we learn of injuries and coaches in the next 6 months. If I had to guess, I expect a mediocre season. We are playing good teams, but none that I would call great. We have a good chance in every game, but we have serious issues on the o-line to worry about. That might be fixable with the coaching change, but I don’t know.



7-8 wins, but I’m not sure how yet, just a gut feel.

I actually think we have 12 winnable games - not just 10.

I'm not ready to make predictions until I know who will be coaching and how the team looks in Spring practice.

hawkwing wrote:
I'm not ready to make predictions until I know who will be coaching and how the team looks in Spring practice.

Wimp! I'll bet if you write down some predicitons today, then revisit them after spring practice, you'd not change more than one game - if that.



As a seperate prediction I predict in the spring practice, the offence will be better than the defense at the very start, and we'll call it a positive sign for the offense, but then say, "but wait - we've lost some inprotant players on defense, so maybe it's a bad sign from the defense..."

ABYUFAN wrote:

I'm not ready to make predictions until I know who will be coaching and how the team looks in Spring practice.

Wimp! I'll bet if you write down some predicitons today, then revisit them after spring practice, you'd not change more than one game - if that.



As a seperate prediction I predict in the spring practice, the offence will be better than the defense at the very start, and we'll call it a positive sign for the offense, but then say, "but wait - we've lost some inprotant players on defense, so maybe it's a bad sign from the defense..."

Yeah, but then I can say I'm not ready to make my predictions until after fall camp, and I can keep on putting it off until after the season and look like a genius when I come back and edit my original post and post exactly what happened!

The predictions from Sunny ST. George:

Aug. 31 at Virginia W - by +7

Sept. 7 Texas W - by +1

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W - by +3

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W by +17

Oct. 4 at Utah State L - -7

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W - by +10

Oct. 18 at Houston W - by +10

Oct. 25 Boise State L -by -7

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin L - by -6

Nov. 16 Idaho State W - by +35

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame L - by -14

Nov. 30 at Nevada W - by +10

Over all 8-4, W in the Bowl = 9-4 and an acceptable season considering the rookie kicking game.( my biggest concern )

ABYUFAN wrote:
I posted this in another thread - I'm moving it here... Here's how I see the season shaking out:



Aug. 31 at Virginia W 21-14

Sept. 7 Texas W 17-10

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah W 24-10

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State W 51-14

Oct. 4 at Utah State W 24-12

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech W 31- 10

Oct. 19 at Houston W 34-31

Oct. 26 Boise State W 35-21

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin W 31-28

Nov. 16 Idaho State W 51- 0

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame W 27-21

Nov. 30 at Nevada W 35-17



I may be a bit optimistic



It should be noted that I also predict that the weeks of September 7, November 9, and November 23 we'll hear a certain bib-wearing poster complain about our AD being stupid and killing our team by scheduling 2 for 1s. We'll hear it so much that we'll be willing to shoot ourselves, but ultimately be glad that Corn-guy has taken over the world and taken away our guns,and hidden them all in an LDS church. So we'll just suffer in silence...

Thank you ABYUFAN. I posted an 11-1 prediction in another thread, with the sole loss coming to Notre Lame. I stand by it here. I think there is an odd thinking going on right now among everyone. For some reason it seems people have decided that this is just the toughest schedule ever, that there will be 4-5 losses, and that there's just too many question marks on X,Y,Z areas of the team, stuff like o-line, kicking game, etc. Yeah, I understand the arguments, but I just don't buy them. I also think that most of the posters on this site would rather predict a mediocre season and be "right" so they can feel good about being right, rather than going out on a limb with some hope of a special season, and having who knows what happen.



My thoughts are these, for whatever it's worth. I think we have a serious shot at a special season. I look at each one of these games as "explainable" and I think the rationale for why we should win is just more believable to me than why we should lose. Here's my take:



Aug. 31 at Virginia-We win because Bronco historically does well with the opening game, VA is just not that great, and they have lots of coaching issues. First game jitters aside, we do fine.

Sept. 7 Texas-Our home opener against a good, but not great Texas team. The crowd will be rocking for this one. KVN and company will hold the D while the crowd forces some UT offside penalties. Texas has NMSU their first week and then us, which means they lose their first real test.

Sept. 14 BYE

Sept. 21 Utah-Coming off bye weeks, Bronco does well. Utah is developing a losing culture after not bowling in 2012. They don't really want to play this game, but we do. It's our turn for a W. Another raucous LES this week, and the Utah offense won't do much against our defense. Anae will have the offense clicking by this point and we will do fine.

Sept. 27 Middle Tennessee State- It's a middle tier, Sun Belt team that we have at home. Enough said.

Oct. 4 at Utah State- I think that USU has peaked. Last season was their best that they will have for quite some time. We will be improved and they will be a little down from last year. This might be one of the sneaky close games, but I think we are in their heads, especially after last year, and the year before.

Oct. 12 Georgia Tech- Bronco has shown that he can totally shut down the triple option. He will do it again and I like having a little bit more preparation from the USU short week to get ready for it. We have them at home too, so yeah.

Oct. 19 at Houston- I think some people worry about this game because Houston received lots of attention when Case Keenum was at the helm. He's not now. Houston is just so-so. They were 5-7 last year. I follow Conference USA fairly closely, and I just don't see this as being any sort of gotcha game.

Oct. 26 Boise State- We totally should have had them last year, and this year we will. Having them at home is helpful. By this point in the season, the Anae offense will certainly be clicking. They lost to the same SDSU team which we beat in our bowl game. BSU barely beat Washington in their bowl.

Nov. 2 BYE

Nov. 9 at Wisconsin-Another bye week to precede a tough one. Bronco and company will be ready. Wisconsin went 8-6 last year. I think we're overhyping the difficulty on this one a bit. I see this as an evenly matched game, and while they play Iowa the week before, we get to rest and get ready for them.

Nov. 16 Idaho State- This is a gimme game. If anyone is injured, it's totally okay to rest them this week to get ready for ND.

Nov. 23 at Notre Dame-This is the one we lose. If we're undefeated by this point, there will be all kinds of hype, and I just don't think we can head to South Bend and pull it off. ND is good, even though I think they were super lucky to make it to the NC game.

Nov. 30 at Nevada-Everyone will be all mad about losing to ND and we go into Reno (which, like UNLV, should be like a home away from home for us) with a vengeance. Not much rationale here other than Nevada is just decent, and we can handle them in any given year.



So yeah, 11-1. Maybe a shot at the BCS. Still feeling blue-goggled about the schedule, but I really don't see much here that makes me worry. One by one, we can and will win these games. Anae, get our offense together this off season. Bronco, reload the defense like I think you will. Sorensen, for heaven's sake, be the kicker that you were in HS and we will do fine. Taysom, just do what Johnny Manziel does-and don't get hurt. Cody and KVN, keep being awesome. Go Cougs!