Carlino vs. Jimmer

All this talk of the team not being "good" and the continued debate about the PG position got me thinking about comparing Sophomore Jimmer and Sophomore Carlino. Hopefully this will add a bit of perspective to the conversation.



For fun, I included the players' freshman and sophomore years.



Jimmer



Freshman

Averaged 18.5 min/game and 7 pts/game. Grabbed 1 board a game. Dished 1.7 assists/game while committing 1.2 turnovers/game (1.2 ratio). Average 0.8 steals a game. Shot 40% from the field, 85% from the line and 33% from 3-point line.



Sophomore

Averaged 33 min/game and 16.2 pts/game. Grabbed 3 boards a game. Dished 4 assists/game while committing 2.6 turnovers/game (1.5 ratio). Average 1.5 steals a game. Shot 48% from the field, 85% from the line and 38% from 3-point line.



Carlino



Freshman

Averaged 27 min/game and 12.2 pts/game. Grabbed 3 board a game. Dished 4.6 assists/game while committing 3.0 turnovers/game (1.5 ratio). Average 1.4 steals a game. Shot 40% from the field, 76% from the line and 33% from 3-point line.



Sophomore

Averaging 26 min/game and 10 pts/game. Grabbing 3.5 board a game. Dishing 4.4 assists/game while committing 2.1 turnovers/game (2.1 ratio). Averaging 1.9 steals a game. Shooting 41% from the field, 66% from the line and 30% from 3-point line.



We really can't complain about Carlino's game. While Jimmer certainly is/was the better shooter, Carlino is handing out more assists with fewer turnovers than Jimmer did his Sophomore season. Carlino is also a better rebounder and clearly a better defender.



Points are a big part of winning games, and a sophomore Jimmer scored more points than a sophomore Carlino. Carlino does need to work on his shooting; we all know that. But, you have to keep in mind Carlino is averaging 7 min/game less than Jimmer did.



Carlino is scoring about 0.4 points/min, so 7 more minutes a game theoretically should result in 2.7 more points a game for Carlino, which would put him at 12.7 pts/game if Carlino got as many minutes as Jimmer did.



One big area of improvement for Carlino is in FT percentage. His shooting is down on the season (it's been improving), but FT shooting is drastically down. He doesn't get to the line as much as Jimmer did, but if Carlino shot 80% from the line he'd have another point or two to his average.



Carlino dug himself in a huge shooting hole, but he appears to be climbing out of it. In WCC play he's a Top 5 scorer. Add in all the assists, steals, boards, etc. and Carlino is a special player.



You could make the case that as a PG, Carlino is better than Jimmer.

Carlino is a good player. To win we need him to be a little better. He has the talent to do so. We don't have a really deep talented team. So if we need some one to step up besides Haws or Davies it has to be Carlino.



The key is that Jimmer made huge improvements in his Junior and Senior years.

Points Available Percentage:

Carlino FR: .420

Carlino SO: .413

Jimmer FR: .423

Jimmer SO: .516



True Shooting Percentage:

Carlino FR: .511

Carlino SO: .492

Jimmer FR: .549

Jimmer SO: .605

Qman wrote:
Carlino is a good player. To win we need him to be a little better. He has the talent to do so. We don't have a really deep talented team. So if we need some one to step up besides Haws or Davies it has to be Carlino.



The key is that Jimmer made huge improvements in his Junior and Senior years.

Hmmm...I wouldn't really say Jimmer made "huge" improvements. His 3P percentage went up quite a bit between his sophomore and junior year. But, basically he just shot it more. From a percentage standpoint, Jimmer actually shot the ball the best his Sophomore year.



Here are his averages for Jimmer's Junior and Senior years:



Junior

22 pts/game; 3.1 rebounds; 4.7 assists; 2.7 turnovers (1.74 ratio); 1.2 steals; 46% FG; 89% FT; 44% 3P



Senior

28 pts/game; 3.4 rebounds; 4.3 assists; 3.5 turnovers (1.22 ratio); 1.3 steals; 45% FG; 89% FT; 40% 3P



A sophomore Carlino still out rebounds a Senior Jimmer. A Sophomore Carlino has the edge on assists over a Senior Jimmer. A Sophomore Carlino is committing 2.1 turnovers a game for a 2.1 assist/turnover ratio, while a Senior Jimmer is coughing up the ball 3.5 times a game for a 1.22 assist/turnover ratio. A sophomore Carlino is getting just under 2 steals a game at 1.9 while a Senior Jimmer averages just over one a game at 1.3.



Yes, Carlino is the difference maker for us and moving forward. But any criticism of his game is really unfounded. As a sophomore he's out performing a Senior Jimmer in every category but shooting - tall order to out score Jimmer.



For fun, here are the top four scorers during Jimmer's sophomore, junior and senior years:



2008

Cummard - 16.8 pts/game

Jimmer - 16.2 pts/game

Tavernari - 15.7

Emery - 7.8

(56.5 points a game from top 4)



2009

Jimmer - 22 pts/game

Emery - 12.5 pts/game

Haws - 11 pts/game

Tavernari - 10.1 pts/game

(55.5 points a game from top 4)



2010

Jimmer - 28.9 pts/game

Emery - 12.5 pts/game

Davies - 11.1 pts/game

Hartsock - 8.6 pts/game

(61.1 points a game from top 4)



2010 was the first time we had a post player averaging double figures since Trent Plaisted. Hartsock really only had one good year. Last season was the first time since 2009 that we've had four players averaging double figures. Right now, our top 4 scorers together average 56.8 points a game - right there with 2009 and 2008 tournament bound teams.

Nice analysis. Maybe we can survive without Davies next year. of course we are surviving with him on the bench more than he should be,....But we need some point production out of the four (think Hartsock for Jimmer) or five next year or teams will shut down the outside shooting.

http://createfunnyphotos.com/uploads/saved_posters/funny-photo-w558x6v53x-NIGGA-PLEASE!.jpg" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

So Carlino, against different competition, is worse than Jimmer. I'm shocked!

Jimmer also played in a tougher conference(MWC) vs Carlino(WCC)

Schmoe wrote:
So Carlino, against different competition, is worse than Jimmer. I'm shocked!

Did you read the analysis?



Carlino out performs Jimmer in Assists, turnovers, steals, and rebounds all while playing fewer minutes.



He's a sophomore that only played 2/3 of his freshman year. Give the kid some time. The criticism of him really is unfounded.

I've thought about this quite a bit before you posted this. Freshman and Sophomore Carlino is a better player than Freshman and Sophomore Jimmer. But Jimmer got better and better every year. It would be too much to ask of everyone to do that. I guess we will see quite a bit of separation between Jimmer Jr. year vs. Carlino Jr. year, and in the Sr. year it will just be silly. Haws Freshman and Sophomore years were hands down way better than Comparable Jimmer years, but, again, I don't think that that will continue much longer. Jimmer just got otherworldly in his progression.

Gunk wrote:

So Carlino, against different competition, is worse than Jimmer. I'm shocked!

Did you read the analysis?



Carlino out performs Jimmer in Assists, turnovers, steals, and rebounds all while playing fewer minutes.



He's a sophomore that only played 2/3 of his freshman year. Give the kid some time. The criticism of him really is unfounded.

If I'm criticizing him, then I'm criticizing everyone on the team and pretty much everyone in college basketball.



Points Available Percentage:

Carlino FR: .420

Carlino SO: .413

Jimmer FR: .423

Jimmer SO: .516



True Shooting Percentage:

Carlino FR: .511

Carlino SO: .492

Jimmer FR: .549

Jimmer SO: .605

Jimmer wasn't needed to be an x factor during his sophomore year (although he should've been since he was clearly the best PG on the team imo which he proved vs A&M) and Carlino has. So their roles are different as well.

ABYUFAN wrote:
I've thought about this quite a bit before you posted this. Freshman and Sophomore Carlino is a better player than Freshman and Sophomore Jimmer. But Jimmer got better and better every year. It would be too much to ask of everyone to do that. I guess we will see quite a bit of separation between Jimmer Jr. year vs. Carlino Jr. year, and in the Sr. year it will just be silly. Haws Freshman and Sophomore years were hands down way better than Comparable Jimmer years, but, again, I don't think that that will continue much longer. Jimmer just got otherworldly in his progression.

Jimmer did get otherworldly in his progression, but Rose also switched the offense to where it was running through Jimmer - the first time in a long time where a BYU offense was centered around a PG.



Now, I don't think the offense should or will ever run through Carlino. I imagine next season it will go through Haws; so, there could be an uptick in Haws' output.



There is room for Carlino to grow. He's improving. Freethrows and three pointers should be his focus. We do need his shooting to get better, but again he's a sophomore, which I think we too often forget.



Carlino came in with some big shoes to fill. When was the last time BYU had a freshman PG get as many min and perform as well as Carlino did last year? I can't remember anyone. Even the great Jimmer didn't get as many min as Carlino got as a freshman. Jimmer didn't even play PG as a freshman.

mizzoucoug wrote:
Jimmer wasn't needed to be an x factor during his sophomore year (although he should've been since he was clearly the best PG on the team imo which he proved vs A&M) and Carlino has. So their roles are different as well.

Jimmer was the team's 2nd leading scorer his sophomore year. He was more than an X factor. If he hadn't shown up, Cummard would have been an island and the team would have gone no where.

I am just fine with Carlino for the past 10 games or so. He has played great anticipation defense lately. We really need him so we can have a consistent 3rd scorer. My only gripe against Carlino is that sometimes he makes bad decisions trying to score. Jimmer used to do that to, but Carlino somehow tries too hard without going through the offense. I am seeing Coach Rose pull him faster when he does it. Part of it is just learning to play at this level. In high school he could get away with it, but not against good D1 teams. I do see him averaging around 15 to 16 points in the next two years and if he can improve his shooting percentage, would have a nice professional career someplace.

Schmoe wrote:

Schmoe wrote:
So Carlino, against different competition, is worse than Jimmer. I'm shocked!

Did you read the analysis?



Carlino out performs Jimmer in Assists, turnovers, steals, and rebounds all while playing fewer minutes.



He's a sophomore that only played 2/3 of his freshman year. Give the kid some time. The criticism of him really is unfounded.

If I'm criticizing him, then I'm criticizing everyone on the team and pretty much everyone in college basketball.



Points Available Percentage:

Carlino FR: .420

Carlino SO: .413

Jimmer FR: .423

Jimmer SO: .516



True Shooting Percentage:

Carlino FR: .511

Carlino SO: .492

Jimmer FR: .549

Jimmer SO: .605

PAP and TSP don't take into account assists, turnover, steals or rebounds. One of the biggest complaints against Carlino are his assists and turnovers. There should be no complaints about either of these two whatsoever. From an assist and turnover perspective Carlino as a sophomore is out performing Jimmer as a Senior.



The numbers clearly show Carlino doesn't score as many points as Jimmer (will anyone?).



Improving his free throws would immediately boost Carlino's PAP and TSP.



Again, give the kid another year or two. IMO, Carlino should be getting 30+ minutes a night to help his production.

I have to admit that the argument that Carlino is better than Jimmer is somewhat absurd.



Do you have the rebound, assist, and steals for everyone on the team besides Jimmer and Carlino for the respective periods?

hawkwing wrote:
I have to admit that the argument that Carlino is better than Jimmer is somewhat absurd.

Blasphemous, right? From a defensive and ball distribution perspective it appears Carlino is the better player. True, the competition is less, but as a sophomore Carlino is performing well if you use Jimmer as the barometer in those two categories.



Something for you to explore in your next podcast.

hawkwing wrote:
Do you have the rebound, assist, and steals for everyone on the team besides Jimmer and Carlino for the respective periods?

Not handy. Why? What's your theory?



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Theory being the two are asked to do different things. We need Carlino's rebounds and defense because no one else on the team is providing them, but Jimmer had teammates that were.

Wait, we allow theories on this site? Where's Spiff, the theory catcher when you need him?

;-)



Until Carlino can create sick crossovers and elevate like Jimmer, forget about it. And until he can consistently score above 20+ every game, the comparison is over. What matters, is he is trending the right direction. Glad he is here.



Although, If he improves his very preventable getting into trouble, he and Haws could really be a dynamic duo the next two years.