J
jvquarterbackI long ago stopped trying to justify or condemn BM and BD for there personnel decisions because I just don't have the data to support personnel decisions.
However we can easily evaluate BD and BM in their in-game decisions because we have the data. So I've compiled a list of what I think are the best and worst in-game clock management and point differential decisions on the part of BD and BM.
General insights. Clock management improved as the season went on, particularly not wasting timeouts early in each half. Bronco did this on defense in the Utah and BSU games and it killed the team at the end of the half as they were trying to score points. To end the season there was one defensive timeout in the final 5 games.
On 4th and < 5 when going for it BYU was 13/17 on the year. (BYU did not go for it 12 times when on their 44 yd line or closer). I thought the play-calling was improving in this respect later in the year until the SJSU game in the third quarter. When on three separate occasions in the third quarter the coaches decided to punt on 4th and < 5 inside the BYU 44 yd line.
On 4th and 5-12 when going for it BYU was 3/5 on the year. (BYU did not go for it 5 times while inside the opponents 40 yd line)
On 4th and intermediate near midfield (with-in the BYU 45 yd line) BYU punted 9 times. Net yardage in these situations for BYU was ~27.1 yards for the season. Pinning the opposing team back is great theater but it is a poor coaching decision. The only time this worked successfully for BYU was against Idaho (resulting in a touchdown). It failed against Utah, BSU, ND and SJSU. Most data show a team "pinned" back gains more yardage than on a regular series (probably because they have more yards on the field ahead of them). There is no data I know of that indicates field position is won by punting in these situations.
By my estimation BM left ~35 points on the board in these 4th down situations while saving ~17 meaning the point differential for the season would have been +18 if he had decided to go for it rather than punt in those situations. That means the offense would have scored 35 more points if they had gone for it in all 17 oppotunities but the defense would have given up 17 additional points if they had gone for it in all of those situations.
This would have resulted in 2-3 more wins as the errors were concentrated in the SJSU, Utah, BSU and ND games.
So if BM and BD were to come out of the dark ages in coaching BYU would have ended the season 9-3 or 10-2 no matter what you think of their personnel decisions.
However we can easily evaluate BD and BM in their in-game decisions because we have the data. So I've compiled a list of what I think are the best and worst in-game clock management and point differential decisions on the part of BD and BM.
General insights. Clock management improved as the season went on, particularly not wasting timeouts early in each half. Bronco did this on defense in the Utah and BSU games and it killed the team at the end of the half as they were trying to score points. To end the season there was one defensive timeout in the final 5 games.
On 4th and < 5 when going for it BYU was 13/17 on the year. (BYU did not go for it 12 times when on their 44 yd line or closer). I thought the play-calling was improving in this respect later in the year until the SJSU game in the third quarter. When on three separate occasions in the third quarter the coaches decided to punt on 4th and < 5 inside the BYU 44 yd line.
On 4th and 5-12 when going for it BYU was 3/5 on the year. (BYU did not go for it 5 times while inside the opponents 40 yd line)
On 4th and intermediate near midfield (with-in the BYU 45 yd line) BYU punted 9 times. Net yardage in these situations for BYU was ~27.1 yards for the season. Pinning the opposing team back is great theater but it is a poor coaching decision. The only time this worked successfully for BYU was against Idaho (resulting in a touchdown). It failed against Utah, BSU, ND and SJSU. Most data show a team "pinned" back gains more yardage than on a regular series (probably because they have more yards on the field ahead of them). There is no data I know of that indicates field position is won by punting in these situations.
By my estimation BM left ~35 points on the board in these 4th down situations while saving ~17 meaning the point differential for the season would have been +18 if he had decided to go for it rather than punt in those situations. That means the offense would have scored 35 more points if they had gone for it in all 17 oppotunities but the defense would have given up 17 additional points if they had gone for it in all of those situations.
This would have resulted in 2-3 more wins as the errors were concentrated in the SJSU, Utah, BSU and ND games.
So if BM and BD were to come out of the dark ages in coaching BYU would have ended the season 9-3 or 10-2 no matter what you think of their personnel decisions.